{"id":9637,"date":"2024-12-27T10:31:14","date_gmt":"2024-12-27T09:31:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/?page_id=9637"},"modified":"2024-12-27T10:32:20","modified_gmt":"2024-12-27T09:32:20","slug":"prezentace-predpovedi-pocasi-a-jejich-uspesnost","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/prezentace-predpovedi-pocasi-a-jejich-uspesnost\/","title":{"rendered":"PREZENTACE P\u0158EDPOV\u011aDI PO\u010cAS\u00cd A JEJICH \u00daSP\u011a\u0160NOST"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"9637\" class=\"elementor elementor-9637\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-ab717ad elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"ab717ad\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-9135d68\" data-id=\"9135d68\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a3c7214 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"a3c7214\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.17.0 - 08-11-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V diskusn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku Vladim\u00edra Seiferta Televizn\u00ed relace o po\u010das\u00ed (Meteorol. Zpr., 47, 1994, \u010d. 2, s. 62-63) m\u011b mimo\u00ad\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b zaujala pas\u00e1\u017e, kter\u00e1 pojedn\u00e1v\u00e1 o zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed presti\u017ee me\u00adteorologie a \u010cHM\u00da z\u00e1sluhou t\u00fdmu, kter\u00fd do minul\u00e9ho roku prezentoval p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed na CTV. Dr. Seifert p\u00ed\u0161e: \u201eNa\u0161e dlouhodob\u00e1, n\u011bkdy v\u00edce, n\u011bkdy m\u00e9n\u011b \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1 snaha meteoro\u00adlogii popularizovat p\u0159inesla ovoce. Mnoz\u00ed lid\u00e9 je\u0161t\u011b lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku \u0159\u00edkali, \u017ee p\u0159edpov\u011bdi jsou dobr\u00e9, \u017ee velice dob\u0159e vych\u00e1\u00adzej\u00ed&#8230; \u010cHMU z\u00edskal pov\u011bst dobr\u00e9ho odborn\u00e9ho pracovi\u0161t\u011b.&#8221;<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Zp\u016fsob prezentace p\u0159edpov\u011bdi je sice velmi d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd, ale \u0161patn\u00e1 p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f z\u016fstane \u0161patnou, a\u0165 je p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ena k\u00fdmko\u00adliv. Pln\u011b souhlas\u00edm s tvrzen\u00edm, \u017ee v \u0161edes\u00e1t\u00fdch letech byly p\u0159edpov\u011bdi velice ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se sou\u010dasn\u00fdm sta\u00advem. \u00dasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1 p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed je toti\u017e nemysliteln\u00e1 bez kvalitn\u00ed objektivn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi pomoc\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edch mo\u00addel\u016f. Tak\u017ee teprve s rozvojem t\u011bchto model\u016f se \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b zlep\u0161ovala, jak ukazuje tab. 1.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">A zde je nutn\u00e9 si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee v\u00fdsledky p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edch model\u016f m\u00e1 na\u0161e slu\u017eba k dispozici d\u00edky tomu, \u017ee funguj\u00ed telekomunikace, zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed dat, ale t\u0159eba tak\u00e9 proto, \u017ee na\u0161e stanice pozoruj\u00ed a do sv\u011btov\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b jsou op\u011bt pomoc\u00ed tele\u00adkomunika\u010dn\u00edho centra tyto informace p\u0159ed\u00e1v\u00e1ny.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Pokud tedy opravdu do\u0161lo ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed presti\u017ee meteo\u00adrologie a \u010cHM\u00da u na\u0161\u00ed ve\u0159ejnosti, m\u00e1 na tom z\u00e1sluhu ze\u00adjm\u00e9na zlep\u0161en\u00ed vlastn\u00edch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed. A tyto p\u0159edpov\u011bdi jsou v\u00fdsledkem pr\u00e1ce v\u0161ech progn\u00f3zn\u00edch meteorolog\u016f \u010cHM\u00da, nikoliv pouze t\u00fdmu, kter\u00fd do minul\u00e9ho roku prezentoval p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed na \u010cTV. Nep\u0159\u00edmo se na kvalitn\u00ed p\u0159edpo\u00adv\u011bdi pod\u00edl\u00ed tak\u00e9 \u010dinnost Odboru v\u00fdpo\u010detn\u00edch a telekomu\u00adnika\u010dn\u00edch slu\u017eeb, Odboru distan\u010dn\u00edch m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed a informac\u00ed, Odboru profesion\u00e1ln\u00ed stani\u010dn\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b a ostatn\u00edch odbor\u016f a od\u00add\u011blen\u00ed \u010cHM\u00da, bez kter\u00fdch by nebylo mo\u017en\u00e9 dosahovat dob\u00adr\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Literatura:<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">[1] Murphy, A. H.: Proposed Standard Procedures for Veri-fication of Local Weather Forecasts. WMO\/TD No. 31, 1984.<\/span><\/p><table border=\"2\" cellspacing=\"1\" cellpadding=\"1\"><tbody><tr><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">rok<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">81<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">82<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">83<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">84<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">85<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">86<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">87<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">88<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">89<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">90<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">91<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">92<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">93<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost v %<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">32<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">47<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">46<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">49<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">48<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">50<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">53<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">60<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">56<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">61<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">61<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">65<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"color: #003366;\">70<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Tab. 1 \u00dasp\u011b\u0161nost lok\u00e1ln\u00edch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty pro Prahu podle standardn\u00edch verifika\u010dn\u00edch procedur [1] v letn\u00ed po\u00adlovin\u011b uveden\u00e9ho roku.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rteright\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Eva \u010cerven\u00e1, MZ 1994\/4, ro\u010dn\u00edk 47, str. 119<\/em><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V diskusn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku Vladim\u00edra Seiferta Televizn\u00ed relace o po\u010das\u00ed (Meteorol. Zpr., 47, 1994, \u010d. 2, s. 62-63) m\u011b mimo\u00ad\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b zaujala pas\u00e1\u017e, kter\u00e1 pojedn\u00e1v\u00e1 o zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed presti\u017ee me\u00adteorologie a \u010cHM\u00da z\u00e1sluhou [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-9637","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/9637","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9637"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/9637\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9641,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/9637\/revisions\/9641"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9637"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}