{"id":9499,"date":"2024-12-25T21:59:05","date_gmt":"2024-12-25T20:59:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/?page_id=9499"},"modified":"2024-12-25T22:02:03","modified_gmt":"2024-12-25T21:02:03","slug":"neopominutelna-publikacni-vyroci-a-pouceni-z-nich","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/neopominutelna-publikacni-vyroci-a-pouceni-z-nich\/","title":{"rendered":"NEOPOMINUTELN\u00c1 PUBLIKA\u010cN\u00cd V\u00ddRO\u010c\u00cd A POU\u010cEN\u00cd Z NICH"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"9499\" class=\"elementor elementor-9499\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-f49de58 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"f49de58\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-5054b9a\" data-id=\"5054b9a\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fe3d153 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"fe3d153\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.17.0 - 08-11-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Rok 1997 p\u0159edstavuje pro \u010deskoslovenskou, resp. \u010deskou meteorologii a klimatologii, rok n\u011bkolika z\u00e1kladn\u00edch publika\u010dn\u00edch v\u00fdro\u010d\u00ed spojen\u00fdch s l\u00e9ty 1907, 1937, 1947 a 1957.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">P\u0159ed devades\u00e1ti lety publikoval prof. S. Hanzl\u00edk ve V\u011bstn\u00edku Kr\u00e1lovsk\u00e9 \u010desk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti nauk svoji objevnou mezin\u00e1rodn\u011b v\u00fdznamnou studii O studen\u00fdch a tepl\u00fdch anticyklon\u00e1ch, ve kter\u00e9 teoreticky zd\u016fvodnil zat\u00edm nedefinovanou v\u00fd\u0161kovou teplou anticyklonu.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V roce 1937 vydal Vojensk\u00fd \u00fastav v\u011bdeck\u00fd v p\u0159ekladu M. Kon\u010deka z\u00e1kladn\u00ed synoptickou u\u010debnici S. P. Chromova \u00davod do synoptick\u00e9ho rozboru po\u010das\u00ed. N\u011bkomu se m\u016f\u017ee zd\u00e1t, \u017ee \u0161edes\u00e1t let je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 dlouh\u00e1 doba, ale je nutn\u00e9 si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee na tuto Chromovovu publikaci nav\u00e1zal teprve v roce 1948 R. Scherhag Neue Methoden der Wetteranalyse und Wetter &#8211; prognose a a\u017e v roce 1956 publikuje S. Petterssen svoji v\u011bhlasnou kn\u00ed\u017eku Weather analysis and forecasting.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V roce 1947 vych\u00e1z\u00ed v edici P\u0159\u00edroda a lid\u00e9 jako 46. svazek II. p\u0159epracovan\u00e9 a zna\u010dn\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9 vyd\u00e1n\u00ed kn\u00ed\u017eky S. Hanzl\u00edka Z\u00e1klady meteorologie a klimatologie (prvn\u00ed vyd\u00e1n\u00ed vy\u0161lo v roce 1923).<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Analogick\u00e1 situace je v oblasti objektivn\u00edch p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edch metod. Na sv\u011bt\u011b prvn\u00ed ucelenou studii na toto t\u00e9ma publikuje prof. S. Brandejs v roce 1957 pod n\u00e1zvem \u00davod do po\u010detn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed v Geofyzik\u00e1ln\u00edm sborn\u00edku \u010d. 61. V d\u016fsledku toho, \u017ee ne\u0161lo o samostatnou publikaci, ale sou\u010d\u00e1st uveden\u00e9ho sborn\u00edku, nena\u0161la, bohu\u017eel, odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed ohlas. Pro \u00faplnost uve\u010fme, \u017ee na tuto pr\u00e1ci o deset let pozd\u011bji nav\u00e1zala publikace M. \u0160kody a O. Zikmundy Objektivn\u00ed metody p\u0159edpov\u011bdi v synoptick\u00e9 meteorologii, kterou vydalo v roce 1966 \u010cHM\u00da. Kn\u00ed\u017eka se stala vyhled\u00e1vanou vysoko\u0161kolskou u\u010debnic\u00ed a m\u00e1 dosud nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed cita\u010dn\u00ed index.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V dal\u0161\u00edch letech vy\u0161la \u0159ada v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch publikac\u00ed (Haltiner a Martin, Houghton atd.). Nemalou z\u00e1sluhu na prudk\u00e9m publika\u010dn\u00edm boomu m\u00e1 jak Sv\u011btov\u00e1 meteorologick\u00e1 organizace, kter\u00e1 vydala \u0159adu monografi\u00ed, tak Region\u00e1ln\u00ed centrum pro st\u0159edn\u011bdobou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f (ECMWF) v Readingu. P\u0159i\u010dteme-li k tomu stovky \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f v odborn\u00fdch \u010dasopisech a v\u00fdsledky numerick\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed termobarick\u00fdch pol\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b meteorologick\u00fdch prvk\u016f v tzv. meteogramech vys\u00edlan\u00fdch jak sv\u011btov\u00fdmi, tak region\u00e1ln\u00edmi \u010di specializovan\u00fdmi centry, mohli bychom p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee meteorolog-synoptik m\u00e1 dostatek odborn\u00fdch znalost\u00ed a v\u011brohodn\u00fdch podklad\u016f pro vlastn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed. Vznik\u00e1 tud\u00ed\u017e logick\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka, pro\u010d se adekv\u00e1tn\u011b nezlep\u0161uje p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b sr\u00e1\u017eek.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V\u0161echna subjektivn\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed model\u016f p\u0159ij\u00edman\u00fdch telekomunika\u010dn\u00edm centrem v Praze-Komo\u0159anech nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b LAM modely jsou velmi \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 a poskytuj\u00ed nejrozs\u00e1hlej\u0161\u00ed podkladov\u00e9 materi\u00e1ly pro rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed meteorologa. Toto tvrzen\u00ed nen\u00ed v rozporu s n\u00e1sledn\u00fdm konstatov\u00e1n\u00edm, \u017ee ob\u010das doch\u00e1z\u00ed v modelech jednotliv\u00fdch slu\u017eeb k\u00a0v\u00fdrazn\u00fdm neshod\u00e1m, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b u p\u0159edpov\u011bdi sr\u00e1\u017eek. Soust\u0159ed\u00edme se pro jednoduchost na model ALADIN. Tento model, kter\u00fd je n\u00e1m nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed, obsahuje v\u0161echny fyzik\u00e1ln\u00ed parametrizace umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed kvalifikovanou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f jev\u016f m\u011b\u0159\u00edtek 15-20 km. Z\u00a0toho plyne, \u017ee p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f je z fyzik\u00e1ln\u011b-matematick\u00e9ho hlediska zcela optim\u00e1ln\u00ed a spolehliv\u00e1. P\u0159esto se st\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee p\u0159edpov\u011bdi, kter\u00e9 se jev\u00ed na prvn\u00ed pohled nev\u011brohodn\u00fdmi a meteorologem nejsou akceptov\u00e1ny, se spln\u00ed. Tot\u00e9\u017e plat\u00ed, bohu\u017eel, i obr\u00e1cen\u011b. P\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bn\u00e1 pole mus\u00ed b\u00fdt podle na\u0161eho n\u00e1zoru dopln\u011bna o rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 v\u00fdpo\u010dty diagnostick\u00fdch veli\u010din zd\u016fvod\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch \u010di zpochyb\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bn\u00e1 pole \u010di p\u0159\u00edmo jednotliv\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e9 prvky. Ide\u00e1ln\u00ed, ale nesplniteln\u00e9, by bylo prov\u00e1d\u011bt tyto v\u00fdpo\u010dty na nez\u00e1visl\u00fdch podkladov\u00fdch materi\u00e1lech.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Kvalita p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed je definov\u00e1na nejen dokonal\u00fdm matematick\u00fdm \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm a parametrizacemi, ale hlavn\u011b kvalitou vstupn\u00edch dat. Vstupn\u00ed data netvo\u0159\u00ed jen termodynamick\u00e1 pole z\u00edskan\u00e1 objektivn\u00ed anal\u00fdzou z m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed na s\u00edti p\u0159\u00edzemn\u00edch a v\u00fd\u0161kov\u00fdch stanic, ale t\u00e9\u017e zvolen\u00e1 modelov\u00e1 orografie, od kter\u00e9 se odv\u00edj\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010det vertik\u00e1ln\u00ed sou\u0159adnice. Nav\u00edc jsou pro tuto modelovou plochu p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1ny jevy na \u201ezemi\u201c. Tyto chyby m\u016f\u017eeme pojmenovat chybami systematick\u00fdmi a odstranit je pomoc\u00ed postprocessingu, nap\u0159. Kalmanov\u00fdm filtrem. Dal\u0161\u00ed objektivn\u00ed zdroj chyb vznik\u00e1 neuva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm snosu radiosond. Tento nedostatek bude odstran\u011bn a\u017e zaveden\u00edm \u010dty\u0159dimenzion\u00e1ln\u00ed objektivn\u00ed anal\u00fdzy, s kterou jsou ji\u017e \u010din\u011bny pokusy nap\u0159. v ECMWF.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Mohou n\u00e1s v\u00fd\u0161e citovan\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed publikace inspirovat v hled\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00fdch n\u00e1stroj\u016f, kter\u00e9 by potvrdily \u010di naopak vyvr\u00e1tily pochybnosti meteorolog\u016f p\u0159i anal\u00fdze p\u0159ijat\u00fdch numerick\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed? Z tohoto pohledu snad jedin\u011b Petterssen nebo ned\u00e1vno vy\u0161l\u00e1 publikace Howarda B. Bluesteina Synoptic &#8211; Dynamic Meteorology in Midlatitudes, d\u00edl I a II, poskytuj\u00edc\u00ed dostatek stimul\u016f k \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed ot\u00e1zek frontogeneze a cyklogeneze.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">P\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011b se zamysl\u00edme nad n\u011bkter\u00fdmi aspekty Bluesteinovy knihy. Ve st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch modelech jsou p\u0159echody front, resp. front\u00e1ln\u00ed rozhran\u00ed, nezachytiteln\u00e9, a tud\u00ed\u017e postihnout kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b zv\u00fdrazn\u011bn\u00e9 jevy je sou\u010dasn\u011b nemo\u017en\u00e9. Synoptik nem\u00e1 v\u0161ak k dispozici ani kolekci vypo\u010dten\u00fdch diagnostick\u00fdch krit\u00e9ri\u00ed umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch alespo\u0148 anal\u00fdzu okam\u017eit\u00e9ho stavu fronty. Jej\u00ed projevy zn\u00e1 jen v diskr\u00e9tn\u00edch \u010dasov\u00fdch okam\u017eic\u00edch pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed na vybran\u00fdch stanic\u00edch. P\u0159i p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed se p\u0159idr\u017euje jak sv\u00fdch zku\u0161enost\u00ed s tvary termodynamick\u00fdch pol\u00ed, tak z\u00e1kladn\u00edch pravidel popisuj\u00edc\u00edch pr\u016fb\u011bhy po\u010das\u00ed na jednotliv\u00fdch typech front, sp\u00ed\u0161e v\u0161ak modelov\u00fdch front s u\u010debnicov\u00fdm pr\u016fb\u011bhem po\u010das\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 technika v\u0161ak ji\u017e umo\u017e\u0148uje v kombinaci s do-statkem p\u0159\u00edzemn\u00edch pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed (m\u00e1me na mysli v\u0161echna pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed, nejen ta, kter\u00e1 vstupuj\u00ed do sv\u011btov\u00e9 \u010di region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bny), konstruovat objektivn\u00ed anal\u00fdzy z\u00e1kladn\u00edch prvk\u016f a po\u010d\u00edtat diagnostick\u00e9 parametry vypov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed cosi o stavu vzduchov\u00fdch hmot, jejich schopnosti absorbovat p\u0159i sv\u00e9m postupu dal\u0161\u00ed vlhkost nebo se transformovat \u010di rozpadat.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Uve\u010fme jako p\u0159\u00edklad nov\u00fd interaktivn\u00ed SW METPRO zakoupen\u00fd \u010cHM\u00da pro zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed dru\u017eicov\u00fdch, radarov\u00fdch a ve\u0161ker\u00fdch synoptick\u00fdch m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b modelov\u00fdch termobarick\u00fdch pol\u00ed. Tento SW umo\u017en\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010dty libovoln\u00fdch pol\u00ed, jejich kombinace apod. Budeme se zab\u00fdvat parametry, kter\u00e9 budou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b schopny z prognostick\u00fdch pol\u00ed potvrdit nebo naopak vyvr\u00e1tit p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bn\u00e9 jevy, resp. nejevy.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rteright\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Miroslav \u0160koda, MZ 1997\/2, ro\u010dn\u00edk 50, str. 62-63<\/em><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rok 1997 p\u0159edstavuje pro \u010deskoslovenskou, resp. \u010deskou meteorologii a klimatologii, rok n\u011bkolika z\u00e1kladn\u00edch publika\u010dn\u00edch v\u00fdro\u010d\u00ed spojen\u00fdch s l\u00e9ty 1907, 1937, 1947 a 1957. P\u0159ed devades\u00e1ti lety publikoval prof. S. Hanzl\u00edk [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-9499","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/9499","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9499"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/9499\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9503,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/9499\/revisions\/9503"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9499"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}