{"id":8376,"date":"2024-11-26T19:36:40","date_gmt":"2024-11-26T18:36:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/?page_id=8376"},"modified":"2024-11-26T19:38:29","modified_gmt":"2024-11-26T18:38:29","slug":"ad-rozhovor-s-vedoucim-oddeleni-numerickych-predpovedi-pocasi-francouzske-meteorologicke-sluzby-j-f-geleynem","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/ad-rozhovor-s-vedoucim-oddeleni-numerickych-predpovedi-pocasi-francouzske-meteorologicke-sluzby-j-f-geleynem\/","title":{"rendered":"Ad: Rozhovor s vedouc\u00edm odd\u011blen\u00ed numerick\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed francouzsk\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e9 slu\u017eby J.-F. Geleynem"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"8376\" class=\"elementor elementor-8376\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-a6282dd elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"a6282dd\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-5099e68\" data-id=\"5099e68\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-08f19b0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"08f19b0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.17.0 - 08-11-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Ve t\u0159et\u00edm \u010d\u00edsle Meteorologick\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v 48. ro\u010dn\u00edku (1995) byl zve\u0159ejn\u011bn rozhovor s vedouc\u00edm odd\u011blen\u00ed numeric\u00adk\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed francouzsk\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e9 slu\u017eby J.-F. Geleynem. Autor odpov\u011bd\u00ed na ot\u00e1zky formulovan\u00e9 M. \u0160kodou z \u010cHM\u00da se v n\u011bm n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t kriticky vyjad\u0159uje k postoji \u010cHM\u00da v\u016f\u010di projektu ALADIN, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e z formula\u00adc\u00ed jednozna\u010dn\u011b nevypl\u00fdv\u00e1, kdo konkr\u00e9tn\u011b je p\u0159edm\u011btem kriti\u00adky. Je v\u0161ak nasnad\u011b, \u017ee se problematika bezprost\u0159edn\u011b t\u00fdk\u00e1 pracovi\u0161t\u011b p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed v \u010cHM\u00da Praze-Komo\u0159anech, a proto bych se cht\u011bl ke kritice vyj\u00e1d\u0159it.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Nejprve si p\u0159ipome\u0148me hlavn\u00ed kritick\u00e9 p\u0159ipom\u00ednky. Cituji:<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">.. pro mnoh\u00e9 vedlej\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9my lid\u00e9 v \u010cHM \u00da skute\u010dn\u011b nejsou str\u017eeni pokrokem v projektu ALADIN.&#8221; \u201eNev\u00e1h\u00e1m \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee mezi meteorologick\u00fdmi slu\u017ebami v r\u00e1mci LACE je \u010cHM\u00da z\u00e1rove\u0148 tou instituc\u00ed, kter\u00e1 nejv\u00edce p\u0159isp\u011bla k projektu ALA\u00adDIN, i tou, kter\u00e1 z n\u011bj patrn\u011b bude m\u00edt m\u00e9n\u011b u\u017eitku ve smyslu budouc\u00edho rutinn\u00edho vyu\u017eit\u00ed&#8230; M\u00e1m pochopen\u00ed pro individu\u00e1l\u00adn\u00ed pozici ka\u017ed\u00e9ho jednotliv\u00e9ho prognostika, v\u00e1haj\u00edc\u00edho zm\u011bnit sv\u00e9 zvyklosti p\u0159echodem z jednoho typu produkt\u016f na jin\u00fd. Av\u0161ak jestli\u017ee tyto individu\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1jmy pracuj\u00edc\u00ed kolektivn\u011b proti z\u00e1jmu meteorologick\u00e9 slu\u017eby t\u00edm, \u017ee spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na &#8216;betonov\u011b jist\u00e9&#8217; n\u00e1zory, je\u017e jsou zcela v rozporu s t\u00edm, co se stalo v posledn\u00edch letech, potom nev\u00edm, jak m\u00e1m situaci kvalifikovat!&#8221; \u201ePokl\u00e1d\u00e1m dokonce za neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e9, \u017ee n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed lid\u00e9 si sou\u010das\u00adn\u011b mohou st\u011b\u017eovat, \u017ee \u010d\u00e1st potenci\u00e1lu \u010cHM\u00da pom\u00e1h\u00e1 pokro\u00adku M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France. a z\u00e1rove\u0148 d\u011blat v\u0161e, co-je v jejich sil\u00e1ch, aby \u010cHM\u00da zabr\u00e1nili profitovat z p\u0159esn\u011b t\u00e9ho\u017e pokroku.&#8221; \u201e..jakou maj\u00ed v\u0161echny tyto snahy cenu, jestli\u017ee v \u010cHM\u00da neexistuje kolektivn\u00ed v\u016fle p\u0159ijmout model ALADIN za vlastn\u00ed. &#8220;<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Z citac\u00ed je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee kritika pana J.-F. Geleyna je alespo\u0148 do ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u00edry zam\u011b\u0159ena do \u0159ad meteorolog\u016f-prognostik\u016f. V tomto sm\u011bru v\u0161ak kritika z\u0159ejm\u011b vych\u00e1z\u00ed z nepravdiv\u00fdch informac\u00ed. Jsem p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee na zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9m meteorologic\u00adk\u00e9m pracovi\u0161ti nen\u00ed meteorolog, kter\u00fd by d\u011blal v\u0161e, co je v jeho sil\u00e1ch, aby \u010cHM\u00da zabr\u00e1nil profitovat z pokroku spo\u00adjen\u00e9ho s projektem ALADIN. Pokud n\u011bkdo takov\u00fd existuje, pak na jin\u00e9m pracovi\u0161ti. Rovn\u011b\u017e pokl\u00e1d\u00e1m za absurdn\u00ed, aby n\u011bkdo z meteorolog\u016f prosazoval osobn\u00ed z\u00e1jem, stav\u00edc\u00ed se pro\u00adti z\u00e1jmu meteorologick\u00e9 slu\u017eby, t\u00edm, \u017ee by nap\u0159. lp\u011bl na mate\u00adri\u00e1lech z jin\u00e9ho zdroje a kategoricky odm\u00edtal vyu\u017e\u00edt produkty modelu ALADIN &#8211; to by ned\u00e1valo smysl.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed pracovn\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed pracovi\u0161t\u011b meteorologick\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy v Komo\u0159anech mus\u00ed vych\u00e1zet a tak\u00e9 vych\u00e1z\u00ed z jeho posl\u00e1n\u00ed: poskytovat meteorologick\u00e9 informace, zejm\u00e9na p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed, v\u0161em u\u017eivatel\u016fm lak, aby p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ely opti\u00adm\u00e1ln\u00ed u\u017eitek. Informace musej\u00ed b\u00fdt podle mo\u017enost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 d\u00e1v\u00e1 sou\u010dasn\u00fd stupe\u0148 v\u00fdvoje meteorologie, p\u0159esn\u00e9, podan\u00e9 srozumiteln\u00e9, \u201e\u0161it\u00e9 na m\u00edru&#8221; s ohledem na pot\u0159eby u\u017eivatel\u016f. Sou\u010dasn\u011b v\u0161ak musej\u00ed b\u00fdt seri\u00f3zn\u00ed; nevyplatilo by se p\u0159edst\u00ed\u00adrat, \u017ee je mo\u017eno p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bt n\u011bco, co v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b je\u0161t\u011b nelze. Pro kvalitn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 meteorologick\u00e1 slu\u017e\u00adba v\u0161ech informac\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jsou k dispozici, a mezi nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pat\u0159\u00ed ov\u0161em produkty model\u016f s hustou s\u00edt\u00ed bod\u016f ur\u010den\u00e9 pro kr\u00e1tkodobou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f, mezi n\u011b\u017e pat\u0159\u00ed i ALADIN. Nem\u00e9n\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 jsou pochopiteln\u011b produkty model\u016f slou\u017e\u00ed\u00adc\u00ed st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Vedle ALADINu jsou v na\u0161\u00ed slu\u017eb\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1ny i dal\u0161\u00ed dva modely s hustou s\u00edt\u00ed bod\u016f, a sice model n\u011bmeck\u00e9 slu\u017eby v Offenbachu a britsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby v Bracknellu. Ka\u017ed\u00fd meteoro\u00adlog brzy pozn\u00e1, \u017ee pro p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed neexistuje nic \u201ebeto\u00adnov\u011b jist\u00e9ho&#8221;, ani produkty model\u016f. Je logick\u00e9, a zku\u0161enost to potvrzuje, \u017ee se vyplat\u00ed pro p\u0159edpov\u011bdi br\u00e1t v \u00favahu a kritic\u00adky posuzovat v\u0161echny dostupn\u00e9 podklady. (To plat\u00ed nepo\u00adchybn\u011b obecn\u011b pro jak\u00e9koliv rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed. V\u017edy\u0165 kdo by se br\u00e1nil v\u0161em dostupn\u00fdm informac\u00edm nap\u0159. p\u0159i d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9m osob\u00adn\u00edm rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed?) Omezit se pouze na n\u011bkter\u00e9 podklady \u010di informace pokl\u00e1d\u00e1m za p\u0159\u00edstup sice pohodln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, n\u011bkdy i ali\u00adbistick\u00fd, konec konc\u016f v\u0161ak m\u00e9n\u011b zodpov\u011bdn\u00fd a \u00fa\u010dinn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Jak\u00fd je tedy vztah komo\u0159ansk\u00fdch meteorolog\u016f pracuj\u00ed\u00adc\u00edch na progn\u00f3ze k modelu ALADIN? Produkty tohoto mode\u00adlu p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1me jako dal\u0161\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd podklad pro p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed. Oce\u0148ujeme pr\u00e1ci, kter\u00e1 byla vlo\u017eena do jeho v\u00fdvoje. Jeho produkty pokl\u00e1d\u00e1me za p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b stejn\u011b kvalitn\u00ed jako produkty model\u016f n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho a britsk\u00e9ho. To ostatn\u011b potvrzu\u00adje i jednoduch\u00e9 hodnocen\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi t\u011bchto t\u0159\u00ed model\u016f, kte\u00adr\u00e9 jsme provozn\u011b za\u010dali prov\u00e1d\u011bt v \u010dervnu. V tomto m\u011bs\u00edci byly rozd\u00edly v kvalit\u011b t\u011bchto model\u016f velmi mal\u00e9, jako nejlep\u0161\u00ed se v \u010dervnu uk\u00e1zal model britsk\u00fd, pak n\u011bmeck\u00fd a ALADIN. P\u0159es ve\u0161ker\u00e9 \u00fasp\u011bchy t\u011bchto model\u016f v\u0161ak \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd z nich proza\u00adt\u00edm nen\u00ed schopen b\u00fdt dostate\u010dn\u011b spolehliv\u00fdm podkladem pro podrobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed regionalizaci p\u0159edpov\u011bdi na \u00dazem\u00ed \u010cR. zejm\u00e9na pokud se t\u00fd\u010de sr\u00e1\u017eek. Jsme si v\u011bdomi v\u00fdhody modelu ALA\u00adDIN, kter\u00e1 spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v\u00a0tom, \u017ee m\u016f\u017eeme uplat\u0148ovat zp\u011btnou vaz\u00adbu. To ov\u0161em neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee se budeme orientovat pouze na n\u011bj, podle na\u0161eho n\u00e1zoru by to nep\u0159isp\u011blo ke zkvalitn\u011bn\u00ed na\u0161\u00ed pr\u00e1ce.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Nevid\u00edm d\u016fvod k obav\u00e1m, pro\u010d by \u010desk\u00e1 meteorologick\u00e1 slu\u017eba m\u011bla m\u00edt m\u00e9n\u011b u\u017eitku z modelu ALADIN ne\u017e slu\u017eby jin\u00e9, sdru\u017een\u00e9 v LACE, a mysl\u00edm, \u017ee by n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bva pana J.-F. Geleyna v na\u0161\u00ed slu\u017eb\u011b jeho obavy rozpt\u00fdlila.<\/span><\/p><div><p class=\"rteright\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Jan Pavl\u00edk, MZ 1995\/5, ro\u010dn\u00edk 48, str. 149<\/em><\/span><\/p><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ve t\u0159et\u00edm \u010d\u00edsle Meteorologick\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v 48. ro\u010dn\u00edku (1995) byl zve\u0159ejn\u011bn rozhovor s vedouc\u00edm odd\u011blen\u00ed numeric\u00adk\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed francouzsk\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e9 slu\u017eby J.-F. Geleynem. Autor odpov\u011bd\u00ed na ot\u00e1zky formulovan\u00e9 M. \u0160kodou z [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-8376","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/8376","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8376"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/8376\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8380,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/8376\/revisions\/8380"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8376"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}