{"id":8334,"date":"2024-11-26T19:02:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-26T18:02:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/?page_id=8334"},"modified":"2024-11-26T19:04:06","modified_gmt":"2024-11-26T18:04:06","slug":"pristoupenim-k-evropskemu-centru-pro-strednedobou-predpoved-pocasi-se-predpovedi-jednoznacne-zkvalitni","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/pristoupenim-k-evropskemu-centru-pro-strednedobou-predpoved-pocasi-se-predpovedi-jednoznacne-zkvalitni\/","title":{"rendered":"P\u0159istoupen\u00edm k Evropsk\u00e9mu centru pro st\u0159edn\u011bdobou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed se p\u0159edpov\u011bdi jednozna\u010dn\u011b zkvalitn\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"8334\" class=\"elementor elementor-8334\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-f8cb0bf elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"f8cb0bf\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-12793d8\" data-id=\"12793d8\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2378cdd elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2378cdd\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.17.0 - 08-11-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p class=\"rtejustify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Rozhovor redakce s \u0159editelem \u010cesk\u00e9ho hydrometeorologick\u00e9ho \u00fastavu Ing. Ivanem Obrusn\u00edkem, DrSc. na aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed t\u00e9ma<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>1. Pane \u0159editeli, od srpna leto\u0161n\u00edho roku se \u010cesk\u00e1 republika stala \u010dlenskou zem\u00ed Evropsk\u00e9ho centra pro st\u0159edn\u011bdobou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed (ECMWF) se s\u00eddlem v anglick\u00e9m Readingu. Je zn\u00e1mo, \u017ee o p\u0159ipojen\u00ed k Evropsk\u00e9mu centru usilovalo veden\u00ed \u010cHM\u00da del\u0161\u00ed dobu, realizace se opo\u017e\u010fovala p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm z ekonomick\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f. M\u016f\u017eete uv\u00e9st, pro\u010d je pro na\u0161i slu\u017ebu zapojen\u00ed do tohoto centra tak d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9?<\/em><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Podeps\u00e1n\u00ed smlouvy o spolupr\u00e1ci s ECMWF je pro \u010cHM\u00da, ale konec konc\u016f i pro \u010cR, d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 z n\u011bkolika d\u016fvod\u016f. Pat\u0159\u00ed k nim p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm snaha o zlep\u0161en\u00ed P\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed a v\u00fdstra\u017en\u00e9 slu\u017eby (PVS) \u010cHM\u00da pro p\u0159\u00edpady povodn\u00ed, ale i dal\u0161\u00edch mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fdch situac\u00ed vznikl\u00fdch p\u016fsoben\u00edm nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdch meteorologick\u00fdch jev\u016f. Dal\u0161\u00edm d\u016fvodem je snaha o prodlou\u017een\u00ed intervalu p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed z numerick\u00fdch model\u016f po\u010das\u00ed z dosavadn\u00edch ca 5 dn\u016f a\u017e na 9 a\u017e 10 dn\u00ed. Dosud vyu\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 a velmi kvalitn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi a produkty z region\u00e1ln\u00edho modelu ALADIN, po\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9 u n\u00e1s, maj\u00ed jen omezen\u00fd \u010dasov\u00fd rozsah do 48 hodin, dosud dostupn\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed modely asi na 5 dn\u016f dop\u0159edu. Krom\u011b zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9ho \u201eprodlou\u017een\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed\u201c bude p\u0159\u00ednosn\u00fd i p\u0159\u00edstup k dat\u016fm z tzv. \u201eans\u00e1mbl\u016f\u201c, co\u017e p\u0159isp\u011bje ke zlep\u0161en\u00ed objektivity p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed zejm\u00e9na u extr\u00e9mn\u00edch jev\u016f a z\u00e1rove\u0148 i k postupn\u00e9mu p\u0159echodu na pravd\u011bpodobnostn\u00ed typ p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed. Bude to znamenat i podstatn\u00fd kvalitativn\u00ed skok pro u\u017eivatele na\u0161ich p\u0159edpov\u011bdi, a\u0165 ji\u017e se jedn\u00e1 o ve\u0159ejnost nebo o podnikovou sf\u00e9ru. T\u0159et\u00edm d\u016fvodem je zlep\u0161eni kontakt\u016f se z\u00e1padoevropsk\u00fdmi meteorology a zlep\u0161eni p\u0159\u00edstupu ke v\u0161em dat\u016fm a produkt\u016fm z ECMWF &#8211; v kone\u010dn\u00e9 f\u00e1zi to zlep\u0161i \u00farove\u0148 nejen operativn\u00ed meteorologie, ale i klimatologie a obecn\u011b i \u00farove\u0148 v\u00fdzkumu v t\u011bchto oborech u n\u00e1s. T\u00edm m\u00e1m na mysli v\u00fdzkumu v cel\u00e9 \u010cR, nikoliv pouze v \u010cHM\u00da. Nelze opomenout i p\u0159istup k experiment\u00e1ln\u00edm sezonn\u00edm p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00edm na b\u00e1zi v\u00fdstup\u016f z \u201eans\u00e1mbl\u016f\u201c. Posledn\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd p\u0159inos je sp\u00ed\u0161e v politick\u00e9 rovin\u011b &#8211; na\u0161i meteorologov\u00e9 z\u00edskaj\u00ed n\u00e1stroje podobn\u00e9 kvality jako jejich kolegov\u00e9 v EU a podobn\u011b i u\u017eivatel\u00e9 budou m\u00edt p\u0159istup k dat\u016fm a informac\u00edm evropsk\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b. Lze to pova\u017eovat za jeden z krok\u016f \u010cR p\u0159i p\u0159istupov\u00e1n\u00ed k EU.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>2. P\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed pracovi\u0161t\u011b \u010cHM\u00da vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 dosud produkty n\u011bkolika numerick\u00fdch model\u016f (ALADIN, britsk\u00fd, americk\u00fd, n\u011bmeck\u00fd). Problematikou vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed meteorologick\u00fdch podklad\u016f pro varovnou slu\u017ebu se ned\u00e1vno zab\u00fdval v na\u0161em \u010dasopisu J. Pavl\u00edk [Meteorol. Zpr., 2001, \u010d. 1], jen\u017e na z\u00e1klad\u011b anal\u00fdzy n\u011bkolika konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f demonstroval zna\u010dn\u00e9 rozd\u00edly v odhadech jednotliv\u00fdch model\u016f. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b \u010deho Evropsk\u00e9 centrum (podklady, programy, metody) vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed kvalitn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed produkty ne\u017e jin\u00e1 pracovi\u0161t\u011b? Z Va\u0161ich informac\u00ed poskytnut\u00fdch denn\u00edmu tisku jednozna\u010dn\u011b vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee spolupr\u00e1ce s Evropsk\u00fdm centrem umo\u017en\u00ed p\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f, v\u010detn\u011b prodlou\u017een\u00ed d\u00e9lky z p\u011bti na deset dn\u016f. Je to realistick\u00fd p\u0159edpoklad?<\/em><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">U\u017e samotn\u00fd vznik Evropsk\u00e9ho centra vych\u00e1zel z p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee pouze spole\u010dn\u00fdm \u00fasil\u00edm a sdru\u017een\u00edm finan\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f bude mo\u017en\u00e9 vyvinout a operativn\u011b provozovat dostate\u010dn\u011b kvalitn\u00ed numerick\u00fd model po\u010das\u00ed pro prodlou\u017een\u00fd p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed interval. Proto vych\u00e1zel model ECMWF z nejmodern\u011bj\u0161\u00edch klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f a z velmi kvalitn\u00ed asimilace dat na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farovni. V\u00e1mi zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 modely maj\u00ed sv\u00e9 v\u00fdhody, ale umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi na krat\u0161\u00ed dobu (ALADIN na 48 hodin, glob\u00e1ln\u00ed model na 3-5 dn\u016f), model na st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00fd interval (5-10 dn\u00ed) do vzniku ECMWF zcela chyb\u011bl. J. Pavl\u00edk demonstroval pr\u00e1v\u011b skute\u010dnost, \u017ee p\u0159i pou\u017eit\u00ed v\u00edce model\u016f dosahuj\u00edc\u00edch by\u0165 pon\u011bkud jin\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem podobn\u00e9 kvality, m\u016f\u017eeme z\u00edskat n\u011bkolik pom\u011brn\u011b odli\u0161n\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f \u010di p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed. V praxi to pak klade na meteorologa velik\u00e9 n\u00e1roky, ke kter\u00e9mu modelu se m\u00e1 p\u0159i kone\u010dn\u00e9m rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159iklonit. Tuto situaci p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nezlep\u0161\u00edme pou\u017eit\u00edm je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho po\u010dtu t\u011bchto model\u016f. V\u00fdchodiskem m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt (a refer\u00e1ty na posledn\u00ed konferenci o aplikovan\u00e9 meteorologii ECAM 2001 z Budape\u0161ti to v pln\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e potvrzuj\u00ed) pou\u017eit\u00ed pon\u011bkud jin\u00e9ho modelu vysok\u00e9 kvality, kter\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed v obt\u00ed\u017en\u00fdch situac\u00edch usnadnit. T\u00edmto modelem je pr\u00e1v\u011b model z ECMWF. \u0158ada z\u00e1padoevropsk\u00fdch meteorologick\u00fdch slu\u017eeb pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 v rutinn\u00ed praxi kvalitn\u00ed model pro omezen\u00e9 oblasti (jako nap\u0159. ALADIN) na 48 hodin dop\u0159edu a d\u00e1le a\u017e do 8-10 dn\u016f model ECMWF: Ostatn\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed modely pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161e jako dopl\u0148kov\u00e9. Evropsk\u00e9 centrum vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed kvalitn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed produkty p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm d\u00edky v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9mu lidsk\u00e9mu potenci\u00e1lu i mohutn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu materi\u00e1ln\u00edmu zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed. ECMWF vych\u00e1z\u00ed z velmi dob\u0159e napozorovan\u00fdch dat a jejich kvalitn\u00ed asimilace, zpracovan\u00fdch prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm sofistikovan\u00e9ho modelu vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00edc\u00edho \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9 numeriky, dobr\u00e9 parametrizace a efektivn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu ans\u00e1mbl\u016f, kter\u00e9 mohou eliminovat chyby vstupn\u00edch dat. Evropsk\u00e9 st\u0159edisko vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 i nejv\u00fdkonn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed superpo\u010d\u00edta\u010de, kter\u00e9 si jednotliv\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nemohou dovolit. Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee produkty z ECMWF vysokou kvalitu skute\u010dn\u011b maj\u00ed a je to uzn\u00e1v\u00e1no i mimo Evropu (nap\u0159. v USA \u010di Japonsku).<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Informace pro tisk zd\u016fraz\u0148ovaly o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 p\u0159\u00ednosy spolupr\u00e1ce s ECMWF ve velmi zkr\u00e1cen\u00e9 form\u011b: P\u0159i optim\u00e1ln\u00edm vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed produkt\u016f a dat z ECMWF, kter\u00e9 se na\u0161i meteorologov\u00e9 mus\u00ed teprve nau\u010dit, a zejm\u00e9na nasazen\u00ed produkt\u016f EPS (z ans\u00e1mbl\u016f) pro p\u0159edpov\u011bdi extr\u00e9mn\u00edch situac\u00ed a vyu\u017eit\u00ed uv\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fdch pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed a o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdch chyb numerick\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed ur\u010dit\u011b ke zkvalitn\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed z \u010cHM\u00da dojde. Obdobn\u011b dojde i k prodlou\u017een\u00ed intervalu p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nelze o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee to bude platit ka\u017ed\u00fd den. R\u00e1d bych zd\u016fraznil nutnost postupn\u00e9ho seznamov\u00e1n\u00ed na\u0161ich meteorolog\u016f s produkty z ECMWF a jejich zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00edm do praxe. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m i v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pomoc z v\u00fdzkumn\u00fdch pracovi\u0161\u0165 v \u010cR, pro kter\u00e9 bude pr\u00e1ce s produkty z ECMWF rovn\u011b\u017e velk\u00fdm p\u0159\u00ednosem. Kone\u010dn\u011b nelze opomenout ani zdokonalov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstupu k ostatn\u00edm dat\u016fm (z pozorovac\u00edch s\u00edt\u00ed, satelitn\u00edch obr\u00e1zk\u016f, radarov\u00fdm dat\u016fm \u010di zp\u0159\u00edstupn\u011bn\u00ed \u00fadaj\u016f o blesc\u00edch). Pracujeme i na v\u00fdvoji \u201enowcastingu\u201c, kalibraci radar\u016f ze sr\u00e1\u017eko- m\u011brn\u00fdch s\u00edt\u00ed apod. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, i kdy\u017e p\u0159istoupen\u00edm k ECMWF se p\u0159edpov\u011bdi jednozna\u010dn\u011b zkvalitn\u00ed, \u010cHM\u00da paraleln\u011b rozv\u00edj\u00ed i dal\u0161\u00ed metody a postupy, kter\u00e9 vyu\u017eit\u00ed dat z ECMWF dopln\u00ed a v kone\u010dn\u00e9 f\u00e1zi povedou ke zlep\u0161en\u00ed cel\u00e9ho p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu u n\u00e1s.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>3. Vra\u0165me se je\u0161t\u011b k Va\u0161emu konstatov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 pro\u0161lo tak\u00e9 denn\u00edm tiskem: \u201eKdybychom m\u011bli ji\u017e v roce 1997 informace z Evropsk\u00e9ho centra, v\u011bd\u011bli bychom, \u017ee nebude pr\u0161et dva dny, ale \u0161est dn\u016f, a mohli jsme s v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm p\u0159ed-stihem rozhodnout, zda p\u016fjde o katastrofickou povode\u0148, kter\u00e1 p\u0159es\u00e1hne i do Polska a N\u011bmecka, nebo o povode\u0148 pouze region\u00e1ln\u00ed.\u201c Jste skute\u010dn\u011b p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edstup k informac\u00edm z ECMWF by umo\u017enil odhadnout charakter a rozsah tehdej\u0161\u00ed povodn\u011b?<\/em><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Mysl\u00edm si, \u017ee rozhodn\u011b ano. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u00fdstra\u017en\u00e9 \u010dinnosti jde obvykle sp\u00ed\u0161e o odhady a rozhodnut\u00ed varovat \u010di nevarovat, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b pro jak\u00fd rozsah. I kdy\u017e n\u00e1m tenkr\u00e1t chyb\u011bly (nyn\u00ed postupn\u011b zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00e9) hydrologick\u00e9 modely pro hlavn\u00ed toky, katastrofick\u00fd pr\u016fb\u011bh bychom patrn\u011b za pomoc\u00ed v\u00fdstup\u016f z ECMWF p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bli. Pokud by sr\u00e1\u017eky byly pouze dvoudenn\u00ed a nikoliv \u0161estidenn\u00ed, m\u011bla by povode\u0148 zp\u016fsoben\u00e1 t\u011bmito sr\u00e1\u017ekami patrn\u011b pouze region\u00e1ln\u00ed charakter, kde\u017eto povode\u0148 z v\u00edcedenn\u00edch sr\u00e1\u017eek obvykle vede (a tak\u00e9 to tak dopadlo) ke katastrof\u011b. Proto si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee m\u00e9 konstatov\u00e1n\u00ed v tisku nebylo daleko od pravdy. Bylo v\u0161ak formulov\u00e1no velmi jasn\u011b a stru\u010dn\u011b, jak je to pro podobn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady nutn\u00e9. R\u00e1d bych je\u0161t\u011b upozornil na fakt, na kter\u00fd se \u010dasto zapom\u00edn\u00e1, a sice \u017ee ALADINa jsme nasadili do operativy pom\u011brn\u011b t\u011bsn\u011b p\u0159ed povodn\u00ed 97 a pr\u00e1v\u011b jeho pou\u017eit\u00ed n\u00e1m pomohlo p\u0159i vyd\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdstrah, by\u0165 na region\u00e1ln\u00ed povode\u0148. Byl to obrovsk\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch praktick\u00e9ho vyu\u017eit\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00edho numerick\u00e9ho modelu pro povod\u0148ovou situaci a v\u00fdstupy z n\u011bj jsme okam\u017eit\u011b dali k dispozici Pol\u00e1k\u016fm, co\u017e jimi bylo po skon\u010den\u00ed povodn\u011b ocen\u011bno.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>4. Jsou v \u010cHM\u00da vytvo\u0159eny pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 technick\u00e9 i person\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady pro optim\u00e1ln\u00ed vyu\u017eit\u00ed poskytovan\u00fdch informac\u00ed? M\u00e1me na mysli zejm\u00e9na softwarov\u00e9 zabezpe\u010den\u00ed, zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159enosu dat, z\u00e1cvik pracovn\u00edk\u016f progn\u00f3zn\u00edho pracovi\u0161t\u011b apod.<\/em><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Va\u0161e ot\u00e1zka je zcela na m\u00edst\u011b. V\u0161echny V\u00e1mi zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 probl\u00e9my se sna\u017e\u00edme \u0159e\u0161it za chodu a prakticky sou\u010dasn\u011b. Za rychl\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00e9ho z uveden\u00fdch d\u00edl\u010d\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f zodpov\u00edd\u00e1 jeden nebo dva z na\u0161ich \u0161pi\u010dkov\u00fdch pracovn\u00edk\u016f v dan\u00e9 oblasti. Prakticky ji\u017e od srpna jsme schopni vyu\u017e\u00edvat p\u0159edpov\u011bdi sr\u00e1\u017eek z ECMWF a, alespo\u0148 kvalitativn\u011b, v\u00fdstupy z \u201eans\u00e1mbl\u016f\u201c pro tento \u00fa\u010del. ECMWF pro n\u00e1s zp\u0159\u00edstupnilo meteogramy a \u0159adu ostatn\u00edch aplikac\u00ed, na n\u011bkolika dal\u0161\u00edch pracujeme sami a ve spolupr\u00e1ci s n\u011bkter\u00fdmi firmami p\u0159ipravujeme i vhodn\u00fd software. Pokud mo\u017eno brzy bychom m\u011bli inovovat i obecn\u00e9 programov\u00e9 vybaven\u00ed pro p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed pracovi\u0161t\u011b (upgrade st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho americk\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu METPRO nebo podobn\u00fd komplexn\u00ed software od jin\u00e9 firmy), kter\u00e9 umo\u017en\u00ed i lep\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ekl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed meteorologick\u00fdch dat p\u0159es sebe, distribuci obrazov\u00fdch materi\u00e1l\u016f a map a p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 vyu\u017eit\u00ed v\u00fdstup\u016f na internet. Jako patrn\u011b nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m vid\u00edm d\u016fkladn\u00fd z\u00e1cvik \u010di vy\u0161kolen\u00ed na\u0161ich progn\u00f3zn\u00edch pracovn\u00edk\u016f, nebo\u0165 \u0159ada z nich nez\u00edskala p\u0159i sv\u00fdch studi\u00edch p\u0159ed \u0159adou let dostate\u010dn\u00e9 znalosti v pr\u00e1v\u011b dnes modern\u00edch aplikac\u00edch dynamick\u00e9 meteorologie s vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00edm model\u016f, radar\u016f a satelit\u016f. Pr\u00e1v\u011b v tomto t\u00fddnu (od 6. 11. 2001) prob\u00edh\u00e1 v na\u0161em \u0161kolic\u00edm centru v Radostovic\u00edch prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st programu vzd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed odborn\u00fdch pracovn\u00edk\u016f z oboru meteorologie, kter\u00e9 je prvn\u00edm vykro\u010den\u00edm k postupn\u00e9mu p\u0159e\u0161kolen\u00ed a do\u0161kolen\u00ed na\u0161ich pracovn\u00edk\u016f v modern\u00ed meteorologii. S Katedrou meteorologie a ochrany prost\u0159ed\u00ed MFF UK jsme uzav\u0159eli dohodu o spole\u010dn\u00e9m komplexn\u00edm programu vzd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed meteorolog\u016f, kter\u00e9 zahrne i bakal\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 a postgradu\u00e1ln\u00ed studium.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>5. Lze po necel\u00fdch dvou m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch sd\u011blit prvn\u00ed zku\u0161enosti s vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00edm podklad\u016f z ECMWF. Pokud ano, m\u016f\u017eete ilustrovat pozitivn\u00ed nebo negativn\u00ed zku\u0161enosti na n\u011bjak\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edkladu?<\/em><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Prvn\u00ed zku\u0161enosti jsou rozhodn\u011b pozitivn\u00ed, ji\u017e te\u010f vid\u00edme v modelov\u00fdch v\u00fdstupech d\u00e1le dop\u0159edu a douf\u00e1m, \u017ee ji\u017e v t\u011bchto dnech dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed na\u0161i ob\u010dan\u00e9 informace o v\u00fdhledu v\u00fdvoje po\u010das\u00ed na 9-10 dn\u016f dop\u0159edu. Pro objektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vyhodnocen\u00ed neuplynula je\u0161t\u011b dostate\u010dn\u00e1 doba a ani software pro v\u0161echny aplikace nen\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b hotov. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b na\u0161e snaha o rychl\u00e9 a komplexn\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed dat a informac\u00ed z ECMWF prakticky ihned po vstupu a na\u0161e pom\u011brn\u011b velmi dobr\u00e1 p\u0159ipravenost na tento krok vyvolala pozornost i v samotn\u00e9m ECMWF &#8211; zat\u00edm se u \u201enov\u00e1\u010dk\u016f\u201c s takhle rychl\u00fdm postupem nesetkali. Jen douf\u00e1m, \u017ee n\u00e1m to vydr\u017e\u00ed i d\u00e1l a \u017ee se co nejd\u0159\u00edve materi\u00e1ly z ECMWF stanou standardn\u00edmi v na\u0161\u00ed denn\u00ed prognostick\u00e9 praxi. Velmi si slibuji i od p\u0159\u00edklonu k objektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edstup\u016fm s vyu\u017eit\u00edm \u00fadaj\u016f o pravd\u011bpodobnosti (produkty z \u201eanas\u00e1mbl\u016f &#8211; EPS). Za\u010d\u00e1tkem \u0159\u00edjna jsem se spolu s n\u00e1m\u011bstkem \u0159editele pro meteorologii Dr. Wolkem z\u00fa\u010dastnil i prvn\u00edho (pro n\u00e1s) zased\u00e1n\u00ed reprezentant\u016f zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed uzav\u0159enou smlouvu o spolupr\u00e1ci s ECMWF a byli jsme p\u0159ekvapeni, jak dob\u0159e n\u00e1s mezi sebe p\u0159ijali. \u0160\u00e9f ECMWF Dr. Burridge n\u00e1s rovn\u011b\u017e sezn\u00e1mil s programem ECMWF na nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed l\u00e9ta a diskutoval s n\u00e1mi, by\u0165 ne zcela plnopr\u00e1vn\u00fdmi \u010dleny, n\u011bkter\u00e9 probl\u00e9my a n\u00e1vrhy jejich \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. Velmi se n\u00e1m l\u00edbil \u010dist\u011b pragmatick\u00fd a striktn\u011b pracovn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup jedn\u00e1n\u00ed na tomto zased\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>6. Produkty \u010cHM\u00da na \u00faseku p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed a v\u00fdstra\u017en\u00e9 slu\u017eby tvo\u0159\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eitou sou\u010d\u00e1st v r\u00e1mci fungov\u00e1n\u00ed Integrovan\u00e9ho z\u00e1chrann\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, prohlubuje se spolupr\u00e1ce s Hasi\u010dsk\u00fdm z\u00e1chrann\u00fdm sborem, sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed jsou ve st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e varov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed extr\u00e9mn\u00edmi pov\u011btrnostn\u00edmi jevy. V tomto smyslu pln\u00ed \u010cHM\u00da svou povinnost, kterou m\u00e1 v\u016f\u010di st\u00e1tn\u00ed spr\u00e1v\u011b i ve\u0159ejnosti. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b v anket\u011b na t\u00e9ma \u201esynoptick\u00e1 meteorologie a p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1n\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti\u201c [Meteorol. Zpr., 2001, \u010d. 2] se n\u011bkolik p\u0159edn\u00edch odborn\u00edk\u016f shodlo, \u017ee prognostick\u00e9 modely nikdy nemohou pln\u011b vystihnout realitu atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu. Nasnad\u011b je ot\u00e1zka: Neob\u00e1v\u00e1te se mo\u017en\u00e9 kontraproduktivnosti a zklam\u00e1n\u00ed ve\u0159ejnosti, pokud se proklamovan\u00e1 zlep\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed neuskute\u010dn\u00ed?<\/em><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Toho se neob\u00e1v\u00e1m, m\u00e1m sp\u00ed\u0161e sign\u00e1ly o tom, \u017ee se na\u0161e p\u0159edpov\u011bdi i pro p\u0159\u00edpady extr\u00e9mn\u00edch situac\u00ed zlep\u0161uj\u00ed. Pochopiteln\u011b se i nyn\u00ed m\u016f\u017eeme spl\u00e9st. Ale na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b si mus\u00edme uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee probl\u00e9m v\u00fdstra\u017en\u00e9 slu\u017eby nen\u00ed \u010dasto ve vlastn\u00ed p\u0159esnosti p\u0159edpov\u011bdi (kolik mm sr\u00e1\u017eek bude, v kterou hodinu a v kter\u00e9 p\u0159esn\u00e9 lokalit\u011b), ale v tom, zda jsme spustili sv\u00fdm varov\u00e1n\u00edm cel\u00fd syst\u00e9m \u010di ne. Zde n\u00e1s d\u0159\u00edve n\u011bkdy \u201ep\u0159\u00edli\u0161n\u00e9 zaji\u0161\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c p\u0159ed mo\u017enou nep\u0159esnost\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi extr\u00e9mn\u00edch jev\u016f vedlo k tomu, \u017ee jsme upozorn\u011bn\u00ed nebo zejm\u00e9na v\u00fdstrahu v\u016fbec nevydali. A to je obvykle hor\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e kdy\u017e ji vyd\u00e1me, a p\u0159edpov\u00eddan\u00fd jev se nakonec nevyskytne nebo je men\u0161\u00ed. Krom\u011b odborn\u00fdch v\u011bc\u00ed si zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b cen\u00edm nov\u00e9 organizace na\u0161ich p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edch pracovi\u0161\u0165 (CPP a RPP) i velmi pozitivn\u00edho p\u0159\u00edstupu prognostik\u016f pr\u00e1v\u011b k v\u00fdstra\u017en\u00e9 slu\u017eb\u011b. Ta je nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vizitkou \u010cHM\u00da. Zklam\u00e1n\u00ed ve\u0159ejnosti se m\u016f\u017eeme \u010dasto vyhnout i vhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed formulac\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b upozorn\u011bn\u00ed a v\u00fdstrah, ve sporn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch p\u0159\u00edpadech sh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00edm dopl\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch informac\u00ed o meteorologick\u00fdch parametrech \u010di celkov\u00e9 situaci z na\u0161ich profesion\u00e1ln\u00edch \u010di dobrovoln\u00fdch stanic, dispe\u010dink\u016f podnik\u016f Povod\u00ed, konzultace\u00ac mi s odborn\u00edky \u010cHM\u00da, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou v kritickou dobu doma pomoc\u00ed mobiln\u00edho telefonu apod. Kone\u010dn\u011b je t\u0159eba vyu\u017e\u00edvat v\u0161echna data a informace, kter\u00e9 jsou k dispozici, co\u017e jsem ji\u017e zm\u00ednil v odpov\u011bdi na druhou ot\u00e1zku. Rovn\u011b\u017e si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee d\u00edky pom\u011brn\u011b \u010dast\u00e9mu v\u00fdskytu extr\u00e9mn\u00edch jev\u016f a mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fdch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed v posledn\u00edch letech z\u00edskala \u0159ada na\u0161ich prognostik\u016f jednak velk\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti a z\u00e1rove\u0148 p\u0159ehled a \u201eprofesion\u00e1ln\u00ed\u201c nadhled. To br\u00e1n\u00ed zbyte\u010dn\u00fdm zmatk\u016fm z stres\u016fm a v kone\u010dn\u00e9 f\u00e1zi to rovn\u011b\u017e vede ke zkvalitn\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed a v\u00fdstra\u017en\u00e9 slu\u017eby. Zkvalitnili jsme i v\u0161echny druhy spojen\u00ed, p\u0159\u00edstup k materi\u00e1l\u016fm prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm intranetu apod. a rovn\u011b\u017e spolupr\u00e1ce s na\u0161imi prot\u011bj\u0161ky v opera\u010dn\u00edch a informa\u010dn\u00edch st\u0159edisc\u00edch Hasi\u010dsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1chrann\u00e9ho sboru se neust\u00e1le zlep\u0161uje. Nelze opomenout i zkvalitn\u011bn\u00ed na\u0161ich \u201ev\u00fdstup\u016f\u201c na internetu v\u010detn\u011b nov\u00fdch str\u00e1nek povod\u0148ov\u00e9 slu\u017eby. Nakonec bych zm\u00ednil i neust\u00e1l\u00e9 zlep\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce s m\u00e9dii; zejm\u00e9na s \u010cesk\u00fdm rozhlasem a \u010ceskou televiz\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>7. Z Va\u0161ich p\u0159edchoz\u00edch odpov\u011bd\u00ed vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee n\u00e1roky na provoz i technick\u00fd a odborn\u00fd rozvoj \u00fastavu neust\u00e1le stoupaj\u00ed. M\u016f\u017ee \u00fastav plnit sv\u00e9 \u00fakoly se sou\u010dasn\u00fdmi disponibiln\u00edmi prost\u0159edky? Domn\u00edv\u00e1me se, \u017ee jako nezbytn\u00fd p\u0159edpoklad uvedete technologickou modernizaci slu\u017eby, kter\u00e1 povede k integraci pozorovac\u00edch s\u00edt\u00ed, zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sou\u010dinnosti s odborn\u00edky z jin\u00fdch dom\u00e1c\u00edch instituc\u00ed i dal\u0161\u00ed zintenzivn\u011bn\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce.<\/em><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Pochopiteln\u011b prost\u0159edk\u016f jak na investice pro modernizaci, tak zejm\u00e9na na provoz nen\u00ed nikdy dost a celkov\u00fd objem st\u00e1tn\u00edho p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku pro \u010cHM\u00da sp\u00ed\u0161e kles\u00e1, ne\u017e stoup\u00e1. Situaci pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u011b \u0159e\u0161\u00edme, i kdy\u017e \u010dasto s velk\u00fdmi obt\u00ed\u017eemi. Prob\u00edh\u00e1 automatizace stani\u010dn\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b (u profesion\u00e1ln\u00edch a interov\u00fdch stanic je ji\u017e p\u0159ed dokon\u010den\u00edm), p\u0159ikro\u010dili jsme k budov\u00e1n\u00ed jednotn\u00e9ho datab\u00e1zov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu \u010cHM\u00da pro v\u0161echny t\u0159i obory \u00fastavu, sjednotili p\u0159enosy dat apod. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b nep\u016fjde vytvo\u0159it jednotnou s\u00ed\u0165 stanic, kter\u00e9 by ze stejn\u00e9ho m\u00edsta prov\u00e1d\u011bly meteorologick\u00e1, hydrologick\u00e1 a \u201e\u010distot\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1\u201c pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed. Velmi dobrou sou\u010dinnost m\u00e1me s vojensk\u00fdmi meteorology, kde jsme vytvo\u0159ili Syst\u00e9m integrovan\u00e9 v\u00fdstra\u017en\u00e9 slu\u017eby (SIVS) a zlep\u0161uje se i na\u0161e spolupr\u00e1ce s v\u00fdzkumn\u00fdmi pracovi\u0161ti v \u010cR. Kone\u010dn\u011b i mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce se st\u00e1le zkvalit\u0148uje a roste. K ji\u017e tradi\u010dn\u00edm (M\u00e9teo France, US Weather Service, Deutscher Wetterdienst, SHM\u00da, LACE, EUMETSAT atd.) p\u0159ibyla pr\u00e1v\u011b spolupr\u00e1ce s ECMWF, tj. se \u0161pi\u010dkovou instituc\u00ed evropsk\u00e9ho rozsahu. Roste na\u0161e spolu\u00fa\u010dast i na grantech, jednak na n\u00e1rodn\u00ed \u00farovni, jednak na \u00farovni mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v projektech v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9ho programu EU.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>8. V kontextu prohlubuj\u00edc\u00ed se mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce se st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji objevuje my\u0161lenka o vytvo\u0159en\u00ed Evropsk\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e9 slu\u017eby. Ztoto\u017e\u0148ujete se s touto viz\u00ed?<\/em><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Mus\u00edme si p\u0159iznat, \u017ee tato vize je logicky velmi re\u00e1ln\u00e1 a z\u00e1rove\u0148 trochu \u201enebezpe\u010dn\u00e1\u201c p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm pro meteorologick\u00e9 slu\u017eby v mal\u00fdch zem\u00edch, kter\u00e9 patrn\u011b nebudou schopny urvat \u201edostate\u010dn\u00fd kus kol\u00e1\u010de\u201c p\u0159i zakl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed spole\u010dn\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby. Je zcela logick\u00e9, \u017ee by spole\u010dn\u00e1 slu\u017eba vedla k \u00faspor\u00e1m i ke zkvalitn\u011bn\u00ed pr\u00e1ce a produkt\u016f. Ve v\u00fdzkumu je dobr\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem pr\u00e1v\u011b ECMWF, kter\u00e9 je vlastn\u011b takov\u00fdm prvn\u00edm spole\u010dn\u00fdm evropsk\u00fdm pracovi\u0161t\u011bm a p\u0159i hodnocen\u00ed jeho pr\u00e1ce klady jednozna\u010dn\u011b p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00ed nad z\u00e1pory. Osobn\u011b si v\u0161ak mysl\u00edm, \u017ee vytvo\u0159en\u00ed spole\u010dn\u00e9 slu\u017eby budou oddalovat vojensk\u00e9 aspekty a patrn\u011b t\u00e9\u017e ur\u010dit\u00e1 rivalita mezi nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi slu\u017ebami (Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie, Francie, N\u011bmecko).<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rteright\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Za redakci Zden\u011bk Hork\u00fd, MZ 2001\/6, ro\u010dn\u00edk 54, str. 161-163<\/em><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rozhovor redakce s \u0159editelem \u010cesk\u00e9ho hydrometeorologick\u00e9ho \u00fastavu Ing. Ivanem Obrusn\u00edkem, DrSc. na aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed t\u00e9ma 1. Pane \u0159editeli, od srpna leto\u0161n\u00edho roku se \u010cesk\u00e1 republika stala \u010dlenskou zem\u00ed Evropsk\u00e9ho centra pro [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-8334","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/8334","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8334"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/8334\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8338,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/8334\/revisions\/8338"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8334"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}