{"id":8155,"date":"2024-11-22T20:13:10","date_gmt":"2024-11-22T19:13:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/?page_id=8155"},"modified":"2024-11-22T20:14:28","modified_gmt":"2024-11-22T19:14:28","slug":"el-nino-a-pocasi-ve-svete","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/el-nino-a-pocasi-ve-svete\/","title":{"rendered":"EL NI\u00d1O A PO\u010cAS\u00cd VE SV\u011aT\u011a"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"8155\" class=\"elementor elementor-8155\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-5bafad2 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"5bafad2\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-24ec92b\" data-id=\"24ec92b\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a8f0859 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"a8f0859\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.17.0 - 08-11-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Dramatick\u00e9 sucho ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Austr\u00e1lii, ve st\u0159edn\u00ed Americe, v Indii, Etiopii, v severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Braz\u00edlii a na jihu Filip\u00edn a naopak povodn\u011b v Peru, ji\u017en\u00edm Ekv\u00e1doru, na Galap\u00e1g\u00e1ch, ve st\u0159edn\u00edm Chile a v ji\u017en\u00ed Braz\u00edlii, to byly extr\u00e9mn\u00ed projevy po\u010das\u00ed v letech 1982 a\u017e 1983, o kter\u00fdch se meteorologov\u00e9 domn\u00edvali, \u017ee souvisely s jevem El Ni\u00f1o. Bez zaj\u00edmavosti ani nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e1, i kdy\u017e ne prokazateln\u00e1, souvislost s velmi tepl\u00fdm podzimem u n\u00e1s v roce 1982 a n\u00e1sledn\u011b teplotn\u011b nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdm rokem 1983.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V Praze-Klementinu se teplota m\u011b\u0159\u00ed u\u017e od roku 1771 a pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 teplota za m\u011bs\u00edce z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, \u0159\u00edjen a listopad roku 1982 byla spole\u010dn\u011b s teplotou podzimu roku 1802 nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, s hodnotou 11,7 \u00b0C. Tak\u00e9 zima roku 1983 byla u n\u00e1s s pr\u016fm\u011brnou teplotou v Praze 2,52 \u00b0C teplotn\u011b nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1, ale takov\u00fdch zim bylo v minulosti cel\u00e1 \u0159ada.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">O El Ni\u00f1o se hovo\u0159ilo i v roce 1990. Na ja\u0159e roku 1996 se v odborn\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e9 literatu\u0159e objevily zm\u00ednky o tom, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed El Ni\u0148o se chyst\u00e1 a skute\u010dn\u011b v roce 1997 se tento zaj\u00edmav\u00fd a pon\u011bkud z\u00e1hadn\u00fd jev stal skute\u010dnost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">N\u00e1zev El Ni\u00f1o je ze \u0161pan\u011bl\u0161tiny a znamen\u00e1 Jezul\u00e1tko. V\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed d\u00e1rek, kter\u00fd tento Je\u017e\u00ed\u0161ek v minulosti ob\u010das nad\u011blil obyvatel\u016fm z\u00e1padn\u00edho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriky, ale nebyl v\u016fbec radostn\u00fd. P\u0159i El Ni\u00f1o se v\u00fdrazn\u011b teplej\u0161\u00ed povrchov\u00e1 voda z centr\u00e1ln\u00edho rovn\u00edkov\u00e9ho Pacifiku dost\u00e1v\u00e1 u jihoamerick\u00fdch b\u0159eh\u016f nad studenou vodu, kter\u00e1 sem proud\u00ed od jihu. Za norm\u00e1ln\u00ed situace studen\u00e9 vodn\u00ed proudy p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed \u017eiviny pro fytoplankton, kter\u00fd je sou\u010d\u00e1sti potravinov\u00e9ho \u0159et\u011bzce, na jeho\u017e konci jsou ryby a pt\u00e1ci. Ryby n\u00e1sledn\u011b hynou, a t\u00edm i pt\u00e1ci ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed potravu.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">D\u0159\u00edve ne\u017e se o El Ni\u00f1o za\u010dali zaj\u00edmat meteorologov\u00e9, poznali tento jev p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm ryb\u00e1\u0159i u peru\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed. V roce 1970 si v\u0161imli tis\u00edc\u016f mrtv\u00fdch pt\u00e1k\u016f a zpracovatelsk\u00fd ryb\u00ed pr\u016fmysl byl posti\u017een obrovsk\u00fdmi ztr\u00e1tami.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Extr\u00e9mn\u011b vysok\u00e9 povrchov\u00e9 teploty mo\u0159sk\u00e9 vody nedaly sp\u00e1t meteorolog\u016fm. Uva\u017eovali asi takto: \u201eNa\u0161e Zem\u011b p\u0159ece musela z\u00edskat v\u00edce tepeln\u00e9 energie ze Slunce a ta se nutn\u011b musela projevit v atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulaci.\u201c Za\u010daly se hledat \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed souvislosti a ty se alespo\u0148 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b poda\u0159ilo nal\u00e9zt.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Pomoc\u00ed meteorologick\u00fdch dru\u017eic je mo\u017en\u00e9 studovat nejen rozlo\u017een\u00ed obla\u010dn\u00fdch front\u00e1ln\u00edch p\u00e1s\u016f nad zemsk\u00fdm povrchem a zm\u011b\u0159it teplotu na horn\u00ed hranici obla\u010dnosti, ale tak\u00e9 zjistit teplotu na zemsk\u00e9m povrchu a na hladin\u011b oce\u00e1n\u016f. Dlouhodob\u00e1 m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed pak prozrad\u00ed, ve kter\u00fdch oblastech se po del\u0161\u00ed dobu, t\u0159eba n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, udr\u017euje teplej\u0161\u00ed voda, a nejen to, ale i kam se oblasti s nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdmi teplotami vody p\u0159esunuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Velk\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 oce\u00e1ny akumuluj\u00ed slune\u010dn\u00ed tepelnou energii a dovedou ji udr\u017eet dlouho. Kladn\u00e9 teplotn\u00ed odchylky v rovn\u00edkov\u00fdch oblastech nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho (Tich\u00e9ho) oce\u00e1nu jsou pak nepochybn\u011b d\u016fkazem v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho p\u0159\u00edkonu slune\u010dn\u00ed energie. Ten se mus\u00ed projevit i v rozlo\u017een\u00ed teploty vzduchu nad zemsk\u00fdm povrchem a n\u00e1sledn\u011b i ve zm\u011bn\u00e1ch atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulace. Tyto zm\u011bny se mohou t\u00fdkat nejen tropick\u00fdch, ale pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b i mimotropick\u00fdch oblast\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V bl\u00edzkosti rovn\u00edku se po cel\u00fd rok udr\u017euje br\u00e1zda n\u00edzk\u00e9ho tlaku vzduchu. V d\u016fsledku zm\u011bn vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 polohy Slunce a Zem\u011b a n\u00e1sledn\u00fdch rozd\u00edl\u016f v p\u0159\u00edkonu slune\u010dn\u00ed energie se jej\u00ed poloha b\u011bhem roku m\u011bn\u00ed. V lednu le\u017e\u00ed zhruba kolem 5. stupn\u011b ji\u017en\u00ed zem\u011bpisn\u00e9 \u0161\u00ed\u0159ky, v \u010dervenci kolem 12. stupn\u011b severn\u00ed zem\u011bpisn\u00e9 \u0161\u00ed\u0159ky. Lze p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fd p\u0159\u00edkon slune\u010dn\u00ed energie m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit charakter i polohu t\u00e9to br\u00e1zdy. D\u00e1 se o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 zm\u011bny pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9ho tlaku v bl\u00edzkosti rovn\u00edku mohou m\u00edt vliv i na polohu subtropick\u00fdch p\u00e1s\u016f vy\u0161\u0161\u00edho tlaku vzduchu, na charakter pravideln\u00fdch v\u011btr\u016f pas\u00e1t\u016f a v neposledn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b i na atmosf\u00e9rickou cirkulaci v m\u00edrn\u00fdch zem\u011bpisn\u00fdch \u0161\u00ed\u0159k\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Jak moc se tyto v\u0161echny p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9 zm\u011bny v atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulaci navz\u00e1jem ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed, to je zat\u00edm je\u0161t\u011b velk\u00fd otazn\u00edk, nicm\u00e9n\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 odchylky v povrchov\u00fdch teplot\u00e1ch rovn\u00edkov\u00fdch oblast\u00ed Pacifiku jsou d\u016fle\u017eitou informac\u00ed a pro modelov\u00e9 zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm vstupn\u00edm \u00fadajem, tzv. prediktorem.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Ve zpr\u00e1v\u011b z Klimatick\u00e9ho p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edho centra v USA z 10. \u010dervna roku 1997 se \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: \u201eKladn\u00e9 teplotn\u00ed odchylky po &#8211; vrchov\u00fdch vod se ve st\u0159edn\u00edm a v\u00fdchodn\u00edm Pacifiku, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b pak u jihoamerick\u00fdch b\u0159eh\u016f v\u00fdrazn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161ily. V kv\u011btnu byly v oblasti od Indon\u00e9sie a\u017e po 160. stupe\u0148 z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011bpisn\u00e9 d\u00e9lky nam\u011b\u0159eny povrchov\u00e9 teploty vody dokonce vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 29 \u00b0C. Na v\u00fdchod od 175. poledn\u00edku z\u00e1padn\u00ed d\u00e9lky se objevily teploty a\u017e o 4 \u00b0C vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e je dlouhodob\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 odchylka v cel\u00e9 oblasti rovn\u00edkov\u00e9ho Pacifiku pak u\u017e v kv\u011bt &#8211; nu dos\u00e1hla plus 2,9 \u00b0C, co\u017e byla nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnota pozorovan\u00e1 od srpna roku 1983\u201c.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>Jak\u00e9 to m\u011blo n\u00e1sledky na atmosf\u00e9rickou cirkulaci?<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V oblasti datov\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1ry, tedy kolem 180. poledn\u00edku, byla pozorov\u00e1na zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 konvekce doprov\u00e1zen\u00e1 v\u00fdrazn\u00fdm v\u00fdvojem bou\u0159kov\u00fdch oblak\u016f, zat\u00edmco na z\u00e1pad\u011b Tich\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu a v oblasti Indon\u00e9sie byly naopak v\u00fdstupn\u00e9 vzduchov\u00e9 proudy podstatn\u011b slab\u0161\u00ed. Zm\u011bny ve vertik\u00e1ln\u00edch vzduchov\u00fdch pohybech vyvolaly zes\u00edlen\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edch rovn\u00edkov\u00fdch v\u011btr\u016f, a tud\u00ed\u017e i pohyb teplej\u0161\u00edch povrchov\u00fdch vod sm\u011brem na v\u00fdchod. V p\u0159\u00edzemn\u00edm atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9m tlaku se to projevilo z\u00e1porn\u00fdmi odchylkami v centr\u00e1ln\u00edm Pacifiku, a naopak kladn\u00fdmi odchylkami na z\u00e1pad\u011b tohoto nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho sv\u011btov\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Modelov\u00e9 v\u00fdpo\u010dty nazna\u010dovaly, \u017ee kladn\u00e9 teplotn\u00ed odchylky se budou ve zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch roku 1997 v centr\u00e1ln\u00edm Pacifiku zvy\u0161ovat. Pro dlouhodobou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed z toho vypl\u00fdvalo, \u017ee v centr\u00e1ln\u00edm Pacifiku se daj\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1vat nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 sr\u00e1\u017eky, a naopak v oblasti Indie a Indon\u00e9sie podpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9. A nejen to. V\u00fdpo\u010dty uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee by m\u011blo doj\u00edt k zes\u00edlen\u00ed proud\u011bn\u00ed v oblasti m\u00edrn\u00e9ho p\u00e1su ji\u017en\u00ed polokoule. V\u00fdsledkem by mohla b\u00fdt vlh\u010d\u00ed zima v Chile, Argentin\u011b a v ji\u017en\u00ed Braz\u00edlii.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V prosinci roku 1997 vydalo Klimatick\u00e9 centrum v USA zpr\u00e1vu: \u201eKladn\u00e9 teplotn\u00ed odchylky povrchov\u00fdch vod v centr\u00e1ln\u00edm Pacifiku se b\u011bhem listopadu op\u011bt zv\u00fd\u0161ily. V centr\u00e1ln\u00edm a v\u00fdchodn\u00edm Pacifiku byly zaznamen\u00e1ny nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed teploty od roku 1950. Kladn\u00e1 teplotn\u00ed odchylka dos\u00e1hla v oblastech v\u00fdchodn\u011b od 170. poledn\u00edku plus 2 \u00b0C a v oblasti mezi 115. a 90. stupn\u011bm z\u00e1padn\u00ed d\u00e9lky, tedy u\u017e dost bl\u00edzko u jihoamerick\u00fdch b\u0159eh\u016f, dokonce plus 5,0 \u00b0C. Byla to pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed teplota za posledn\u00edch 50 let.\u201c<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V d\u016fsledku vysok\u00e9 teploty vody stouply v\u00fdrazn\u011b i teploty vzduchu v pob\u0159e\u017en\u00edch oblastech Peru. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 listopadov\u00e1 teplota zde byla o 5 a\u017e 6 \u00b0C vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e dlouhodob\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br. Konvekce nad centr\u00e1ln\u00edm Pacifikem byla nad\u00e1le v\u00fdrazn\u00e1 a v oblasti Indon\u00e9sie slab\u00e1.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Nen\u00ed bez zaj\u00edmavosti, \u017ee zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 zm\u011bny atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulace nad Tich\u00fdm oce\u00e1nem vyvolaly i zm\u011bny nad Indick\u00fdm oce\u00e1nem. Tam p\u0159i vodn\u00ed hladin\u011b zes\u00edlily v\u00fdchodn\u00ed v\u011btry a v\u00fdsledkem byly nadm\u011brn\u00e9 sr\u00e1\u017eky v rovn\u00edkov\u00e9 v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Africe. V Keni nap\u0159. spadlo za 2 m\u011bs\u00edce o400 a\u017e 600 mm sr\u00e1\u017eek v\u00edce, ne\u017e \u010din\u00ed dlouhodob\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br. V\u00fdsledkem byly dramatick\u00e9 povodn\u011b.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V\u00fdsledky modelov\u00fdch v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016f nazna\u010dily, \u017ee kladn\u00e9 teplotn\u00ed odchylky povrchov\u00fdch vod st\u0159edn\u00edho a v\u00fdchodn\u00edho rovn\u00edkov\u00e9ho Pacifiku by se m\u011bly udr\u017eet a\u017e do kv\u011btna roku 1998 a teprve v obdob\u00ed od \u010dervna do srpna by m\u011bly sl\u00e1bnout.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">El Ni\u00f1o, tento p\u016fvodn\u011b nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00fd v\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed d\u00e1rek, m\u00e1 i sv\u00e9 kladn\u00e9 str\u00e1nky. Poskytuje toti\u017e meteorolog\u016fm mo\u017enost odhadnout dlouhodob\u00fd sezonn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch teplot a sr\u00e1\u017eek v n\u011bkter\u00fdch oblastech sv\u011bta. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b El Ni\u00f1o, kter\u00e9 za\u010dalo v roce 1997, meteorologov\u00e9 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dali v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b roku 1998 podpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 sr\u00e1\u017eky v Indon\u00e9sii, v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Austr\u00e1lii, na severu Ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriky a v ji\u017en\u00ed Africe. Naopak nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 sr\u00e1\u017eky by m\u011bly b\u00fdt v oblasti centr\u00e1ln\u00edho a v\u00fdchodn\u00edho rovn\u00edkov\u00e9ho Pacifiku, na jihov\u00fdchod\u011b Ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriky, a nejen to. Vliv na atmosf\u00e9rickou cirkulaci severn\u00ed polokoule se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dal tak\u00e9. Nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 sr\u00e1\u017eky se o\u010dek\u00e1valy v Kalifornii a ji\u017en\u00edch oblastech USA. V severn\u00edch oblastech USA zase m\u011bly p\u0159evl\u00e1dat nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">A jak u n\u00e1s? M\u016f\u017ee se El Ni\u00f1o projevit i v na\u0161em st\u0159edo-evropsk\u00e9m po\u010das\u00ed? Jednozna\u010dnou odpov\u011b\u010f, alespo\u0148 zat\u00edm, nezn\u00e1me. Skute\u010dnost\u00ed ale je, \u017ee zima 1997-98 byla t\u0159et\u00ed nejteplej\u0161\u00ed zimou od roku 1771. Jej\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 teplota za m\u011bs\u00edce prosinec, leden a \u00fanor byla v Praze-Klementinu 4,017 \u00b0C. Teplej\u0161\u00ed zimy byly jen vletech 1793-94 s pr\u016fm\u011brnou teplotou 4,1 \u00b0C a v letech 1795-96 s pr\u016fm\u011brnou teplotou 4,3 \u00b0C.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Zda ale tehdy, kdy meteorologov\u00e9 neznali dru\u017eice a dokonce ani radiosond\u00e1\u017en\u00ed balony, bylo El Ni\u00f1o, se asi u\u017e nikdy nedozv\u00edme. Leda\u017ee by se n\u011bkde v peru\u00e1nsk\u00fdch kronik\u00e1ch na\u0161ly zm\u00ednky o uhynul\u00fdch ryb\u00e1ch a mrtv\u00fdch pt\u00e1c\u00edch.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Zpr\u00e1va Klimatick\u00e9ho centra USA z b\u0159ezna roku 1998 \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: \u201eB\u011bhem \u00fanora se udr\u017eely velmi vysok\u00e9 povrchov\u00e9 teploty vody v\u00fdchodn\u011b od 180. poledn\u00edku. Na v\u00fdchod od 170. poledn\u00edku z\u00e1padn\u00ed d\u00e9lky byla odchylka vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 2 \u00b0C a od 140. stupn\u011b z\u00e1padn\u00ed d\u00e9lky d\u00e1le na v\u00fdchod dokonce vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 3 \u00b0C. Sr\u00e1\u017eky byly op\u011bt vydatn\u00e9 v centr\u00e1ln\u00edm a v\u00fdchodn\u00edm Pacifiku a slab\u00e9 v Indon\u00e9sii a z\u00e1padn\u00edm Pacifiku. V n\u011bkter\u00fdch oblastech Keni mno\u017estv\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eek od prosince p\u0159ekro\u010dilo a\u017e 1000 mm. Nadbytek sr\u00e1\u017eek byl d\u00e1le zaznamen\u00e1n v Peru, na jihov\u00fdchod\u011b Ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriky, nedostatek naopak v Indon\u00e9sii a ji\u017en\u00ed Africe. \u201c<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed odchylky v povrchov\u00fdch teplot\u00e1ch vody v Pacifiku dovoluj\u00ed p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee v jarn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch budou nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 sr\u00e1\u017eky doprov\u00e1zen\u00e9 bou\u0159kovou \u010dinnost\u00ed v Kalifornii a na jihu USA. Podpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 sr\u00e1\u017eky se o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed v Indon\u00e9sii, severn\u00ed Austr\u00e1lii, na severu Ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriky a na jihu Afriky. Naopak nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 sr\u00e1\u017eky by m\u011bly b\u00fdt v rovn\u00edkov\u00fdch oblastech Tich\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu, pod\u00e9l pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Ekv\u00e1doru a severn\u00edho Peru, ve st\u0159edn\u00edm Chile a na jihov\u00fdchod\u011b Ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriky.\u201c<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, \u017ee budeme zv\u011bdav\u00ed, jak\u00fd bude teplotn\u00ed a sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fd charakter jarn\u00edch a letn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f ve st\u0159edn\u00ed Evrop\u011b. Za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee El Ni\u00f1o ovliv\u0148uje i atmosf\u00e9rickou cirkulaci nad Atlantsk\u00fdm oce\u00e1nem a Evropou, bychom mohli vylou\u010dit podpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 sr\u00e1\u017eky i podpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Literatura:<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">[1] Environmental and Societal Impacts Group NCAR Network Newsletter. July-August 1997, Januar-March 1998.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">[2] Experimantal long-lead Forecast Bulletin, March 1996, March 1997, September 1997, March 1998.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rteright\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Vladim\u00edr Seifert, MZ 1998\/3, ro\u010dn\u00edk 51, str. 88-89<\/em><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dramatick\u00e9 sucho ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Austr\u00e1lii, ve st\u0159edn\u00ed Americe, v Indii, Etiopii, v severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Braz\u00edlii a na jihu Filip\u00edn a naopak povodn\u011b v Peru, ji\u017en\u00edm Ekv\u00e1doru, na Galap\u00e1g\u00e1ch, ve st\u0159edn\u00edm Chile [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-8155","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/8155","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8155"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/8155\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8159,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/8155\/revisions\/8159"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8155"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}