{"id":14513,"date":"2025-02-05T21:52:53","date_gmt":"2025-02-05T20:52:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/?page_id=14513"},"modified":"2025-02-05T21:57:37","modified_gmt":"2025-02-05T20:57:37","slug":"sesty-hodnotici-cyklus-ipcc","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/sesty-hodnotici-cyklus-ipcc\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0160est\u00fd hodnot\u00edc\u00ed cyklus IPCC"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"14513\" class=\"elementor elementor-14513\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-79be9c6 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"79be9c6\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-2fe1545\" data-id=\"2fe1545\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-70d32a5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"70d32a5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.17.0 - 08-11-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Mezivl\u00e1dn\u00ed panel pro zm\u011bnu klimatu (IPCC) pokra\u010duje ve vyd\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed hodnot\u00edc\u00edch zpr\u00e1v, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edkl\u00e1d\u00e1 od roku 1990 jako shrnut\u00ed nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch poznatk\u016f o zm\u011bn\u011b klimatu a souvisej\u00edc\u00edch t\u00e9matech. V\u0161echny texty jsou k dispozici ke sta\u017een\u00ed na webu IPCC pod spole\u010dnou adresou www.ipcc.ch\/reports\/. Hodnot\u00edc\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy byly postupn\u011b publikov\u00e1ny takto:<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">FAR First Assessment Report 1990<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">SAR Second Assessment Report 1995<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">TAR Third Assessment Report 2001<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">AR4 Fourth Assessment Report 2007<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">AR5 Fifth Assessment Report 2013\u20132014<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Ka\u017ed\u00e1 hodnot\u00edc\u00ed zpr\u00e1va m\u011bla v\u017edy \u010dty\u0159i z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti, kter\u00e9 se od TAR ust\u00e1lily jako The Physical Science Basis, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Mitigation a Synthesis, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e jsou jednotliv\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti rozd\u011bleny do t\u0159\u00ed forem podle rozsahu na Hlavn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vu, Technick\u00e9 shrnut\u00ed a Shrnut\u00ed pro tv\u016frce politik.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Tyto zpr\u00e1vy u\u017e dnes p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed tis\u00edce stran hutn\u00e9ho textu dopln\u011bn\u00e9ho o stovky obr\u00e1zk\u016f, graf\u016f, tabulek a tis\u00edce odkaz\u016f do publikovan\u00e9 literatury.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-0669a4a elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"0669a4a\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-7f5ca52\" data-id=\"7f5ca52\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7932116 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"7932116\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.17.0 - 08-11-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-image{text-align:center}.elementor-widget-image a{display:inline-block}.elementor-widget-image a img[src$=\".svg\"]{width:48px}.elementor-widget-image img{vertical-align:middle;display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/6-hodnotici-cyklus-IPCC.jpg\" data-elementor-open-lightbox=\"yes\" data-elementor-lightbox-title=\"6 hodnot\u00edc\u00ed cyklus IPCC\" data-e-action-hash=\"#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dlightbox%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6MTQ1MTUsInVybCI6Imh0dHA6XC9cL3d3dy5jbWVzLmN6XC93ZWJcL3dwLWNvbnRlbnRcL3VwbG9hZHNcLzIwMjVcLzAyXC82LWhvZG5vdGljaS1jeWtsdXMtSVBDQy5qcGcifQ%3D%3D\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"609\" height=\"255\" src=\"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/6-hodnotici-cyklus-IPCC.jpg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-14515\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/6-hodnotici-cyklus-IPCC.jpg 609w, http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/6-hodnotici-cyklus-IPCC-300x126.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 609px) 100vw, 609px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-368e20e\" data-id=\"368e20e\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4b1876a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"4b1876a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u0160est\u00fd hodnot\u00edc\u00ed cyklus a p\u0159\u00edprava AR6 (Sixth Assessment Report) byly zah\u00e1jeny na 46. jedn\u00e1n\u00ed IPCC v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2017 v kanadsk\u00e9m Montrealu schv\u00e1len\u00edm hrub\u00e9ho obsahu jednotliv\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed. Ve stejn\u00e9m \u010dase bylo otev\u0159eno v\u00fdb\u011brov\u00e9 \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pro z\u00e1jemce st\u00e1t se autorem n\u011bkter\u00e9 z \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed AR6.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-19cf92f elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"19cf92f\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-295569e\" data-id=\"295569e\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7df7ab1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7df7ab1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Do takov\u00e9ho v\u00fdb\u011brov\u00e9ho \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed se m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159ihl\u00e1sit kdokoliv, sta\u010d\u00ed stru\u010dn\u00fd \u017eivotopis s d\u016frazem na odbornou praxi, publikace a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed zku\u0161enosti. Autorsk\u00e9 t\u00fdmy byly panelem schv\u00e1leny na 47. jedn\u00e1n\u00ed v b\u0159eznu 2018 v Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei. P\u016fvodn\u00ed p\u0159edpoklad byl, \u017ee bude zpr\u00e1va postupn\u011b publikov\u00e1na od podzimu 2020. Probl\u00e9my spojen\u00e9 s p\u0159echodem v\u0161ech jedn\u00e1n\u00ed do online podoby kv\u016fli epidemii SARS-CoV-2 (covid-19) zp\u016fsobily zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed a prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st zpr\u00e1vy AR6 (The Physical Science Basis) byla ve\u0159ejnosti p\u0159edlo\u017eena a\u017e 9. srpna 2021.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V pr\u016fb\u011bhu p\u0159\u00edpravy auto\u0159i p\u0159ipravili postupn\u011b t\u0159i verze, kter\u00e9 bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159ipom\u00ednkovat, celkem se museli auto\u0159i vypo\u0159\u00e1dat se 78000 p\u0159ipom\u00ednkami. K takto p\u0159ipraven\u00e9 zpr\u00e1v\u011b byl na z\u00e1v\u011br dopln\u011bn i kr\u00e1tk\u00fd shrnuj\u00edc\u00ed text (Shrnut\u00ed pro tv\u016frce politik), kter\u00fd v\u017edy podl\u00e9h\u00e1 podrobn\u00e9mu schvalov\u00e1n\u00ed na jedn\u00e1n\u00ed IPCC. Toto 54. jedn\u00e1n\u00ed IPCC rovn\u011b\u017e prob\u00edhalo online, co\u017e byla pro v\u0161echny nov\u00e1 a hodn\u011b slo\u017eit\u00e1 zku\u0161enost. Schvalov\u00e1n\u00ed b\u00fdv\u00e1 v\u017edy slo\u017eit\u00e9, ale v online re\u017eimu se zd\u00e1lo b\u00fdt zcela nemo\u017en\u00e9. V IPCC se toti\u017e nehlasuje, v\u017edy se mus\u00ed naj\u00edt dohoda a text se form\u00e1ln\u011b a stylisticky upravuje tak dlouho, a\u017e se shoda najde. Nakonec se to poda\u0159ilo a publikace nov\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy byla zah\u00e1jena. Teprve po odsouhlasen\u00ed kr\u00e1tk\u00e9ho Shrnut\u00ed pro tv\u016frce politik IPCC form\u00e1ln\u011b odsouhlas\u00ed cel\u00fd Report a zah\u00e1j\u00ed pr\u00e1ce na jeho tiskov\u00e9 a graficky definitivn\u00ed webov\u00e9 verzi, co\u017e v\u011bt\u0161inou zabere p\u00e1r t\u00fddn\u016f, v dob\u011b covidu bohu\u017eel p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Stejn\u00fdm proces\u016fm podl\u00e9haj\u00ed i dal\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti AR6, kter\u00e9 nav\u00edc na prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st i na sebe logicky navazuj\u00ed. 28. \u00fanora 2022 byly zve\u0159ejn\u011bny \u010d\u00e1sti Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, k\u00a0nim\u017e se postupn\u011b p\u0159i p\u0159\u00edprav\u011b se\u0161lo 62000 p\u0159ipom\u00ednek. Schvalov\u00e1n\u00ed Shrnut\u00ed pro tv\u016frce politik k t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1sti prob\u00edhalo stejn\u011b jako u prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti online od 14. do 27. \u00fanora 2022 a do jedn\u00e1n\u00ed tak zas\u00e1hl i za\u010d\u00e1tek rusk\u00e9 agrese na Ukrajinu. IPCC se sna\u017e\u00ed nepodl\u00e9hat politice, ale 24. \u00fanora r\u00e1no to bylo hodn\u011b slo\u017eit\u00e9.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Ihned po zah\u00e1jen\u00ed se v\u0161ak o slovo p\u0159ihl\u00e1sila z\u00e1stupkyn\u011b Ukrajiny v IPCC (Svetlana Krakowska) a po\u017e\u00e1dala v\u0161echny deleg\u00e1ty o pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed bez ohledu na situaci. Po skon\u010den\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed v bod\u011b r\u016fzn\u00e9 vystoupil i z\u00e1stupce Ruska (Oleg Anisimov), kter\u00fd se za chov\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska na Ukrajin\u011b omluvil, dal\u0161\u00edch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed se za Rusko u\u017e Oleg ne\u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed. A zat\u00edm posledn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st, Mitigation, byla publikov\u00e1na 4. b\u0159ezna 2022. P\u0159i p\u0159\u00edprav\u011b t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1sti auto\u0159i vypo\u0159\u00e1dali v\u00edce ne\u017e 59000 p\u0159ipom\u00ednek.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">K ukon\u010den\u00ed b\u011b\u017e\u00edc\u00edho \u0161est\u00e9ho hodnot\u00edc\u00edho cyklu IPCC je\u0161t\u011b chyb\u00ed zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00ed \u010dtvrt\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti (Synthesis), kter\u00e1 bude schvalov\u00e1na na dal\u0161\u00edm jedn\u00e1n\u00ed IPCC v b\u0159eznu 2023. Cel\u00fd \u0161est\u00fd cyklus se tedy prot\u00e1hl t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o dva roky.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V\u0161echny zpr\u00e1vy IPCC jsou \u0161irok\u00fdm zdrojem informac\u00ed pro v\u0161echny, kdo se zaj\u00edmaj\u00ed, nebo mus\u00ed reagovat na zm\u011bnu klimatu. D\u00e9lka p\u0159\u00edpravy jednotliv\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v v\u017edy vyvol\u00e1vala diskuse o \u201ezastaral\u00fdch\u201c informac\u00edch, kter\u00e9 IPCC takto zve\u0159ej\u0148uje. Klimatologie je v\u0161ak konzervativn\u00ed v\u011bda, informace neztr\u00e1cej\u00ed platnost z roku na rok. Velk\u00e1 nejistota je aktu\u00e1ln\u011b spojena s v\u00fdvojem energetiky, kter\u00e1 je zodpov\u011bdn\u00e1 za velkou \u010d\u00e1st emis\u00ed sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f. Energetika v\u0161ak ovliv\u0148uje dal\u0161\u00ed zdroje v pr\u016fmyslu, dom\u00e1cnostech i zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed a energetick\u00e1 krize m\u016f\u017ee zm\u011bnit celkov\u00e9 hospoda\u0159en\u00ed v krajin\u011b. Klimatick\u00e9 modely vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00edc\u00ed emisn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, jejich\u017e sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed jsou i propady emis\u00ed v klimatick\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu, mohou v nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch letech d\u00e1vat o dost hor\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdsledky. Pokud jsme dosud pova\u017eovali v\u00fdstupy IPCC za p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 konzervativn\u00ed v reakci na postupy jejich vzniku, tak dnes m\u016f\u017eeme aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdstupy z \u0161est\u00e9ho cyklu pova\u017eovat za p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 optimistick\u00e9. Malou nad\u011bji m\u016f\u017eeme vid\u011bt v z\u00e1jmu ve\u0159ejnosti o m\u00edstn\u00ed zdroje energie, kter\u00e9 nejsou tak v\u00fdznamn\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na geopolitick\u00e9 situaci, jako zdroje fosiln\u00ed. Nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed roky uk\u00e1\u017eou, kam se bude energetika ub\u00edrat.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Radim Tolasz, Meteorologick\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy, ro\u010d. 75, 2022\/5<\/em><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mezivl\u00e1dn\u00ed panel pro zm\u011bnu klimatu (IPCC) pokra\u010duje ve vyd\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed hodnot\u00edc\u00edch zpr\u00e1v, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edkl\u00e1d\u00e1 od roku 1990 jako shrnut\u00ed nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch poznatk\u016f o zm\u011bn\u011b klimatu a souvisej\u00edc\u00edch t\u00e9matech. V\u0161echny texty jsou k [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-14513","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/14513","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14513"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/14513\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14518,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/14513\/revisions\/14518"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14513"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}