{"id":14142,"date":"2025-01-30T17:03:35","date_gmt":"2025-01-30T16:03:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/?page_id=14142"},"modified":"2025-01-30T17:10:44","modified_gmt":"2025-01-30T16:10:44","slug":"konference-o-statisticke-klimatologii","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/konference-o-statisticke-klimatologii\/","title":{"rendered":"Konference o statistick\u00e9 klimatologii"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"14142\" class=\"elementor elementor-14142\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-0f7e74b elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"0f7e74b\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-df7e9b3\" data-id=\"df7e9b3\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6d29e4c elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6d29e4c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.17.0 - 08-11-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Ve dnech 6. 6. a\u017e 10. 6. 2016 se v Albert\u011b v Kanad\u011b, v m\u011bste\u010dku Canmore konalo ji\u017e 13. setk\u00e1n\u00ed klimatolog\u016f, meteorolog\u016f a statistik\u016f na konferenci The 13th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology (IMSC). Tyto akce jsou po\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1ny ka\u017ed\u00e9 t\u0159i roky ji\u017e od roku 1979 a d\u00e1vaj\u00ed prostor pro debatu mezi statistiky na stran\u011b jedn\u00e9 a klimatology, meteorology, pop\u0159. dal\u0161\u00edmi v\u011bdci p\u0159\u00edbuzn\u00fdch obor\u016f na stran\u011b druh\u00e9. Leto\u0161n\u00ed konference byla organizov\u00e1na V\u00fdborem IMSC (IMSC Steering Committee) a podpo\u0159ena n\u011bkolika dal\u0161\u00edmi organizacemi (Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, World Climate Research Program, Canadian Statistical Sciences Institute a Environment and Climate Change Canada).<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">P\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvky byly rozd\u011bleny do n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch 11 sekc\u00ed:<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u2013 The Attribution of Extreme Weather Events and their Impacts to External Drivers of Climate Change,<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u2013 Climate and Weather Model Evaluation,<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u2013 Nonlinear Methods for Climate Extremes,<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u2013 Climate Data Homogenization and Climate Trends\/Variability Assessment,<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u2013 Understanding Climate Variability and its Teleconnections under Global Warming,<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u2013 Stochastic Analysis of the Hydrologic Cycle,<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u2013 Statistical Downscaling Methods for Seasonal to Centennial Predictions and Projections,<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u2013 The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP),<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u2013 WCRP Grand Challenge on Climate Extremes,<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u2013 Advanced Methods for Evaluating Weather and Climate Extremes in Climate Model Simulations,<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u2013 Extreme Value Theory and its Applications.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Po minul\u00e9m setk\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed 3 roky, kter\u00e9 bylo hodn\u011b zam\u011b\u0159eno na v\u00fdsledky souvisej\u00edc\u00ed s podklady pro 5. hodnot\u00edc\u00ed zpr\u00e1vu IPCC (Mezivl\u00e1dn\u00ed panel o zm\u011bn\u011b klimatu), byla tato konference v\u00edce v\u011bnov\u00e1na aplikac\u00edm r\u016fzn\u00fdch statistick\u00fdch metod na klimatologick\u00e1 a meteorologick\u00e1 data. Objevily se informace o nov\u00e9 generaci klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f CMIP6 (Coupeled Model Intercomprarision Project Phase 6), kter\u00e9 budou vyu\u017eity pro pot\u0159eby IPCC, a projektech v\u00e1zan\u00fdch na vyhodnocov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f z t\u011bchto model\u016f. Byl p\u0159edstaven projekt DAMIP (Detection and attribution model intercomparison project), kter\u00fd m\u00e1 ambice vytvo\u0159it nov\u00fd statistick\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup pro detekci klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny a jej\u00edch p\u0159\u00ed\u010din na z\u00e1klad\u011b metody maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011brohodnosti. V budoucnu se po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s vyu\u017eit\u00edm tohoto p\u0159\u00edstupu k vyhodnocov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f model\u016f CMIP6.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Byla prezentov\u00e1na anal\u00fdza n\u00e1hodn\u00e9ho v\u00fdskytu (event. coincidence analysis) jako n\u00e1 stroj pro kvantifikaci vztah\u016f mezi r\u016fzn\u00fdmi datov\u00fdmi \u0159adami (nap\u0159. v\u00fdbuchy sopek a teplota vzduchu) z klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f, mezi kter\u00fdmi mohou b\u00fdt i neline\u00e1rn\u00ed a nestacion\u00e1rn\u00ed vztahy.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Velk\u00e1 pozornost byla v\u011bnov\u00e1na extr\u00e9m\u016fm v\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9m i budouc\u00edm klimatu, a to s d\u016frazem na jejich anal\u00fdzu pomoc\u00ed neline\u00e1rn\u00edch metod. Nap\u0159\u00edklad vyhodnocov\u00e1n\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u00edch sr\u00e1\u017eek bylo v\u011bnov\u00e1no velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvk\u016f, a to jak v sou\u010dasn\u00e9m klimatu (mno\u017estv\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u00edch sr\u00e1\u017eek se v r\u016fzn\u00fdch dostupn\u00fdch datasetech li\u0161\u00ed \u2013 probl\u00e9m gridov\u00e1n\u00ed), tak ve v\u00fdsledc\u00edch klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f (probl\u00e9m p\u0159edpokladu stacionarity). V\u011bt\u0161ina se v\u0161ak v\u011bnovala denn\u00edm a v\u00edcedenn\u00edm \u00fahrn\u016fm.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Velkou v\u00fdzvou z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 korektn\u00ed homogenizace dat, kter\u00e1 by m\u011bla citliv\u011b pracovat nejen s pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdmi hodnotami, ale pr\u00e1v\u011b i s extr\u00e9my.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">P\u0159ekvapiv\u011b velmi m\u00e1lo p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvk\u016f bylo v\u011bnov\u00e1no sezonn\u00edm a dek\u00e1dn\u00edm v\u00fdhled\u016fm. V Evrop\u011b u\u017eivatel\u00e9 vych\u00e1zej\u00ed z v\u00fdsledk\u016f sezonn\u00edch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed ECMWF (Evropsk\u00e9 centrum pro st\u0159edn\u011bdobou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed v Readingu) \u2013 Syst\u00e9m 4 (prezentov\u00e1na sezonn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f extr\u00e9mn\u00edch index\u016f pro \u0160v\u00fdcarsko), ale vzhledem k velk\u00fdm nejistot\u00e1m je praktick\u00e9 vyu\u017eit\u00ed t\u011bchto v\u00fdhled\u016f zat\u00edm omezen\u00e9 a diskutabiln\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Celkov\u011b lze hodnotit tuto konferenci, na kter\u00e9 byly v drtiv\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b p\u0159edneseny kvalitn\u00ed a inspiruj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvky, velmi kladn\u011b.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Sborn\u00edk abstrakt\u016f je v elektronick\u00e9 podob\u011b k\u00a0dispozici u \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edka konference. V dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b by se na str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch konference m\u011bly objevit i cel\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvky \u00fastn\u00edch prezentac\u00ed a poster\u016f.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Stanislava Kliegrov\u00e1,<\/em> <em>Meteorologick\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy, ro\u010d. 69, 2016\/4<\/em><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ve dnech 6. 6. a\u017e 10. 6. 2016 se v Albert\u011b v Kanad\u011b, v m\u011bste\u010dku Canmore konalo ji\u017e 13. setk\u00e1n\u00ed klimatolog\u016f, meteorolog\u016f a statistik\u016f na konferenci The 13th International Meeting [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-14142","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/14142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14142"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/14142\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14146,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/14142\/revisions\/14146"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}