{"id":12441,"date":"2025-01-12T11:48:33","date_gmt":"2025-01-12T10:48:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/?page_id=12441"},"modified":"2025-01-12T11:50:23","modified_gmt":"2025-01-12T10:50:23","slug":"pranostiky-o-pocasi-jako-berly-chromych-prognostiku","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/pranostiky-o-pocasi-jako-berly-chromych-prognostiku\/","title":{"rendered":"PRANOSTIKY O PO\u010cAS\u00cd JAKO BERLY CHROM\u00ddCH PROGNOSTIK\u016e"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"12441\" class=\"elementor elementor-12441\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-c0fe429 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"c0fe429\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-99ad7ad\" data-id=\"99ad7ad\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cffd4d8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"cffd4d8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.17.0 - 08-11-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<div><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">1. \u00daVOD<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Jakkoliv se sna\u017e\u00edm, aby \u00favod m\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku nevyzn\u011bl sk\u00e1celovsky a nebylo mu mo\u017eno up\u0159\u00edt ur\u010ditou jedine\u010dnost, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 jen u snahy. Nemohu potla\u010dit skute\u010dnost, \u017ee my\u0161len\u00adky, kter\u00e9 se pokus\u00edm rozv\u00e9st, mi vnukla teta Toni\u010dka z Ostro-va\u010dic, kter\u00e1 nap\u0159ed slou\u017eila na fa\u0159e a pozd\u011bji byla \u010dlenkou JZD. Ona programov\u011b sleduje, kte\u0159\u00ed meteorologov\u00e9, a v jak\u00e9m rozsahu, se v televizi zmi\u0148uj\u00ed o pranostik\u00e1ch o po\u010das\u00ed a v\u00ed, \u017ee ti, kte\u0159\u00ed se o n\u011b nejv\u00edce op\u00edraj\u00ed, p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed nejl\u00e9pe. Nejm\u00e9n\u011b \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 meteorolo\u017eky je j\u00ed l\u00edto natolik, \u017ee pro ni za\u010dala pov\u011btrnostn\u00ed pr\u016fpov\u00eddky sama se\u00adpisovat a hodl\u00e1 j\u00ed je poslat.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Zam\u00fd\u0161l\u00edm se proto nad v\u00fdznamem pranostik, v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm pro meteorology ne\u017e pro ve\u0159ejnost, a nad p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinami jejich obl\u00ed\u00adbenosti u n\u00e1s je\u0161t\u011b ke konci 20. stolet\u00ed, p\u0159esto\u017ee n\u011bkter\u00e9 vznikly u\u017e v dob\u011b baroka a jin\u00e9 m\u011bly p\u016fvod daleko za hra\u00adnicemi \u010ceska. Vzhledem ke sv\u00fdm zku\u0161enostem s pranostikami, zejm\u00e9na v p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed slu\u017eb\u011b na Slovensku, dovol\u00edm si p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek pojmout \u201efeder\u00e1ln\u011b&#8221;.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">2. DRUH\u00c1 M\u00cdZA PRANOSTIK<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V\u011b\u0159\u00edm tomu, \u017ee pranostiky si kdysi d\u00e1vno vym\u00fd\u0161leli na\u0161i zem\u011bd\u011bl\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edkov\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed \u017eili pov\u011bt\u0161in\u011b v p\u0159\u00edrod\u011b a bedliv\u011b sledovali, co se v n\u00ed d\u011bje. Aby v\u011bd\u011bli, co maj\u00ed kdy d\u011blat, a proto\u017ee znali c\u00edrkevn\u00ed kalend\u00e1\u0159, zapisovali si jimi do pa\u00adm\u011bti agrotechnick\u00e9 lh\u016fty typu \u201eKe\u010f&#8217;p\u0159ejde zamrznut\u00fdch ku\u00adcha\u0159ka (15. 5.), sadieva sa paprika &#8220;, \u201e Svat\u00e1 Markyta (13. 7.) hodila srp do \u017eita&#8221; nebo \u201eNa svat\u00e9ho \u0158eho\u0159e (12. 3.) l\u00edn\u00fd sedl\u00e1k, kter\u00fd neo\u0159e&#8221;. Zver\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed pov\u011btrnostn\u00edch r\u010den\u00ed maj\u00ed na sv\u011bdom\u00ed a\u017e dobov\u00ed intelektu\u00e1lov\u00e9 a n\u00e1rodn\u00ed buditel\u00e9 r\u016fzn\u011b velk\u00e9 invence, proto\u017ee nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9, aby n\u011bkdo se zdrav\u00fdm selsk\u00fdm rozumem vymyslel r\u00fdmova\u010dky \u201eZ ledu Al\u017eb\u011bta (19. 11.) m\u00e1 brod, u Kate\u0159iny zn\u00e1m Ond&#8221; nebo \u201eNa svat\u00e9ho Ond\u0159eje (30. 11.) mruz, chystej sedl\u00e1\u010de v\u016fz&#8221; apod.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00ed m\u011bstsk\u00fd \u010dlov\u011bk se u\u017e o stav pol\u00ed a chl\u00e9v\u016f nesta\u00adral. Na pranostiky postupn\u011b zapom\u00ednal, proto\u017ee v\u011bd\u011bl, \u017ee jsou od roln\u00edk\u016f pro roln\u00edky a zajist\u00e9 by je ani od meteorolog\u016f nekupoval. Tento neblah\u00fd v\u00fdvoj zastavilo a\u017e budov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1\u00adklad\u016f socialismu, j\u00edm\u017e zapo\u010dal r\u016fst praktick\u00e9 hodnoty pra\u00adnostik, kter\u00fd prognostici snad ze setrva\u010dnosti poci\u0165uj\u00ed do\u00adposud.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Boj o zrno, chmel, cukr, brambory a vejce se stal bojem v\u0161elidov\u00fdm: zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e1 meteorologie vstoupila do ka\u017ed\u00e9ho z n\u00e1s. Sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o tom i cit\u00e1t z Rud\u00e9ho pr\u00e1va ze 7. \u010dervna 1959: \u201eO po\u010das\u00ed se u\u017e dnes ve m\u011bstech nemluv\u00ed jen z hle\u00addiska vych\u00e1zek, kab\u00e1t\u016f nebo lehk\u00fdch \u0161at\u016f. &#8216;Na tu \u0159\u00edpu by pot\u0159ebovalo sprchnout&#8217;, vm\u00eds\u00ed se nezbytn\u011b do obvykl\u00e9ho ho\u00advoru o po\u010das\u00ed. Jdete po de\u0161ti, jemu\u017e p\u0159edch\u00e1zely such\u00e9 dny, cestou v pol\u00edch. P\u0159ed v\u00e1mi jde p\u00e1rek, on se pooto\u010d\u00ed, sehne, hrabe se rukou v zemi. Kouk\u00e1te, co to trop\u00ed, a on m\u011b\u0159\u00ed, kolik napr\u0161elo, jak hluboko navlhla zem\u011b. \u010clov\u011bk z m\u011bsta, kter\u00e9mu p\u0159ece b\u00fdvalo srde\u010dn\u011b jedno, zda \u0159epa roste a co k tomu pot\u0159ebuje.&#8221;<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Snad pr\u00e1v\u011b tehdy, v souvislosti s n\u00e1hl\u00fdm celospole\u00ad\u010densk\u00fdm z\u00e1jmem o zabezpe\u010den\u00ed v\u00fd\u017eivy lidu, pranostiky op\u011bt o\u017eily, nebo\u0165 se staly p\u0159irozenou lidskou pot\u0159ebou pro ob\u010dany v\u0161ech profes\u00ed. Zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b pak organiz\u00e1tor\u016fm brig\u00e1d se najednou za\u010daly hodit ji\u017e d\u00e1vno zapomenut\u00e9 pov\u011btrnostn\u00ed pr\u016fpov\u00eddky, dokonce i takov\u00e9 jako nap\u0159. \u201eO svat\u00e9m Mamertu (11. 5.), zima je po \u010dmertu&#8221; nebo \u201eJi\u0159\u00ed s teplem, Mikul\u00e1\u0161 (10. 9.) s p\u00edc\u00ed&#8221;; p\u0159itom pracuj\u00edc\u00ed spolehliv\u011b rozli\u0161ovali Mikul\u00e1\u0161e To-lentinsk\u00e9ho, chod\u00edc\u00edho s p\u00edc\u00ed v m\u011bs\u00edci z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, od Mikul\u00e1\u0161e prosincov\u00e9ho, chod\u00edc\u00edho s and\u011blem a \u010dertem, mimo jin\u00e9 i proto, \u017ee druh\u00fd jmenovan\u00fd upadl do nemilosti, kdy\u017e do na\u0161ich krajin za\u010dal doch\u00e1zet d\u011bda Mr\u00e1z.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Popt\u00e1vka po pranostik\u00e1ch vzr\u016fstala, a bylo velk\u00fdm \u0161t\u011bs\u00adt\u00edm prognostik\u016f, \u017ee jim na pomoc p\u0159isp\u011bchal zku\u0161en\u00fd brn\u011bnsk\u00fd klimatolog dr. Jan Munzar, i kdy\u017e n\u00e1stup konjunktury nezachytil. V roce 1985 vy\u0161la poprv\u00e9 jeho sb\u00edr\u00adka pranostik [4], mal\u00e1, \u00fatl\u00e1 kn\u00ed\u017eka, kter\u00e1 se p\u0159es noc stala cennou p\u0159\u00edru\u010dkou a vyhled\u00e1vanou slu\u017eebn\u00ed pom\u016fckou na p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edch pracovi\u0161t\u00edch. Ji\u017e o rok pozd\u011bji vych\u00e1z\u00ed \u201eMe\u00addardova k\u00e1p\u011b&#8221; ve druh\u00e9m nezm\u011bn\u011bn\u00e9m vyd\u00e1n\u00ed, roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9m jen o doslov a na slu\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00edm pap\u00ed\u0159e ne\u017e ve vyd\u00e1n\u00ed prvn\u00edm.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Sou\u010dasn\u011b a zcela nez\u00e1visle na Munzarovi publikuje v edici Ludov\u00e9 umenie na Slovensku slovensk\u00e9 pranostiky mlad\u00e1 bratislavsk\u00e1 etnografka dr. Zuzana Profantov\u00e1 [6]. Na form\u00e1tu v\u00edce ne\u017e dvojn\u00e1sobn\u00e9m ne\u017e je Munzarova kn\u00ed\u017eka a v n\u00e1kladn\u00e9 grafick\u00e9 \u00faprav\u011b (obr. 1). V meteorologick\u00e9 operativ\u011b jsou v\u0161ak jej\u00ed pranostiky obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bji vyu\u017eiteln\u00e9 ne\u017e Munzarovy, proto\u017ee jsou pov\u0161echn\u011b pops\u00e1ny jen v histo\u00adrick\u00e9m a folkl\u00f3rn\u00edm kontextu. Chyb\u00ed jim meteorologick\u00fd v\u00fdklad, kter\u00fd od etnografky ani o\u010dek\u00e1vat nem\u016f\u017eeme.<\/span><\/p><\/div><div><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Zato Munzar vysv\u011btlen\u00edm ne\u0161et\u0159\u00ed a k radosti meteoro\u00adlog\u016f vysv\u011btluje i nevysv\u011btliteln\u00e9, kdy\u017e v pranostik\u00e1ch usi\u00adlovn\u011b hled\u00e1 racion\u00e1ln\u00ed j\u00e1dro a nav\u00edc p\u0159eb\u00edr\u00e1 i n\u011bkter\u00e9 za\u00adj\u00edmav\u00e9 v\u00fdklady K. Pejmla [5]. Z t\u011bch, kter\u00e9 pot\u011b\u0161\u00ed srdce znaven\u00e9ho synoptika, uve\u010fme r\u010den\u00ed \u201eD\u00e9\u0161\u0165na svat\u00e9ho Mamerta (11. 5.) p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed sou\u017een\u00ed, nebo\u0165 v n\u011bm nic dobr\u00e9ho nen\u00ed&#8221;. Vysv\u011btluje se studen\u00fdmi, rychle se pohybuj\u00edc\u00edmi anti\u00adcyklonami, je\u017e jsou p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou onoho sou\u017een\u00ed. Chyb\u00ed cimrmanovsky dodat, \u017ee u\u017e na\u0161i p\u0159edkov\u00e9, auto\u0159i pranostiky, p\u0159edv\u00ed\u00addav\u011b tu\u0161ili, \u017ee jednou zlobiv\u00e9 anticyklony komo\u0159an\u0161t\u00ed me\u00adteorologov\u00e9 ozna\u010d\u00ed jako situaci Ap2.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">3. CHV\u00c1LA SLU\u017dEBN\u00cdCH POM\u016eCEK<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Obliba obou sb\u00edrek v p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edch slu\u017eb\u00e1ch \u010cHMU a SHMU je bezmezn\u00e1 a vd\u011b\u010dnost ob\u011bma autor\u016fm nen\u00ed ani zdaleka skryt\u00e1. \u201eMunzar je n\u00e1\u0161 Palack\u00fd&#8221;, konstatuje zaslou\u00ad\u017eil\u00fd pra\u017esk\u00fd prognostik. \u010cerstv\u00e1 bratislavsk\u00e1 absolventka meteorologie po n\u00e1stupu do praxe listuje v obou knih\u00e1ch mnohem \u010dast\u011bji ne\u017e ve slu\u017eebn\u00edch p\u0159edpisech, hledaj\u00edc inspi\u00adraci a vhodn\u00fd text, j\u00edm\u017e by omastila such\u00fd popis pov\u011btr\u00adnostn\u00ed situace a zpest\u0159ila strohou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed. Mete\u00adorologick\u00e9 informace pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed \u0161\u0165\u00e1vu, \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed pracovn\u00edci sd\u011b\u00adlovac\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f. Nen\u00ed tedy divu, \u017ee z Munzarovy kn\u00ed\u017eky za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed brzy vypad\u00e1vat str\u00e1nky, zat\u00edmco Zverevova u\u010debni\u00adce synoptick\u00e9 meteorologie [7], vydan\u00e1 v t\u00e9m\u017ee roce jako sb\u00edrky pranostik, m\u00e1 dlouho slepen\u00e9 listy.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V meteorologick\u00e9m provozu nen\u00ed \u010das listovat ve star\u00fdch kalend\u00e1\u0159\u00edch, za\u017eloutl\u00fdch, t\u011b\u017eko dostupn\u00fdch a psan\u00fdch kurentem (\u0161vabachem). Nebo se vracet k Juraji F\u00e1ndlymu [1], kter\u00fd koncem 18. stolet\u00ed ve sv\u00e9m \u201eDruh\u00e9m piln\u00e9m hospo\u00add\u00e1\u0159i&#8221; p\u0159id\u00e1val pro nev\u011bdom\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159e a l\u00ednou hospodyni\u00a0 ke ka\u017ed\u00e9mu m\u011bs\u00edci prognostiku, kter\u00e1 vykl\u00e1dala z nebesk\u00fdch znak\u016f a pov\u011bt\u0159\u00ed budouc\u00ed \u00farody a \u010dasy. Hledat ve v\u00fd\u00adborech F. L. \u010celakovsk\u00e9ho, A. P. Z\u00e1tureck\u00e9ho, A. Strnada nebo ve spisech F. Studni\u010dky, S. Hanzl\u00edka, A. Gregora, K. Pejmla otce i syna.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Za n\u00e1s tuto pr\u00e1ci vykonali jin\u00ed, a proto jsou Munzar\u016fv Medard a Pro\u00adfantov\u00e9 D\u00faha na roztrh\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">N\u011bkolikr\u00e1t jsem byl v p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed slu\u017eb\u011b v Bratislav\u011b sv\u011bdkem, jak se meteorolog m\u016f\u017ee dostat do \u00fazk\u00fdch, kdy\u017e \u010das p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho vstupu do \u00e9teru se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed, vlastn\u00edch n\u00e1pad\u016f se nedost\u00e1v\u00e1 a Munzarova kn\u00ed\u017eka nen\u00ed k nalezen\u00ed. Ani p\u0159echod netu\u0161en\u00e9 fronty h\u00falav ne\u00adm\u016f\u017ee prognostika v\u00edce vyv\u00e9st z m\u00edry. A naopak. Jak\u00e1 \u00faleva se dostav\u00ed, kdy\u017e je kn\u00ed\u017eka na m\u00edst\u011b a lze v n\u00ed naj\u00edt n\u011bco p\u0159\u00edhodn\u00e9ho [3].<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Pan\u00ed Profantov\u00e9 vd\u011b\u010d\u00edme za zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed z ter\u00e9nn\u00edho v\u00fdzkumu, \u017ee pranostiky nevznikaly jen za feudalismu, ale i za \u00e9ry motorizace a chemizace Slovenska. To dokazuj\u00ed mimo jin\u00e9 pranostiky \u201eKe\u010fpo\u010du\u0165motorku tr\u00fabi\u0165z B\u0159ezna, vychvil\u00ed sa&#8221; anebo \u201eNa sv\u00e1tu Ag\u00e1tu (5. 2.) daj pol&#8217;u superfosf\u00e1tu&#8221;. Nov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pranostiky jsou u\u017e jen d\u00edlem ustra\u0161en\u00fdch redaktor\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b v ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 dob\u011b v r\u00e1mci autocenzury upravovali pr\u016fpov\u00eddky do pou\u017eiteln\u00e9, tedy nez\u00e1vadn\u00e9 formy. Nap\u0159. r\u010den\u00ed \u201eSv\u00e1t\u00e1 Barbora \u0165ah\u00e1 sane do dvora&#8221; na \u201eBarbora, Barbora \u0165ah\u00e1 sane do dvora&#8221;; nam\u00edsto pranostiky \u201eD\u00e9\u0161\u0165 na Havla (16. 10.), d\u00e9\u0161\u0165na v\u00e1noce&#8221; zn\u011bl opraven\u00fd v\u00fdrok \u201eD\u00e9\u0161\u0165na Hedviku, d\u00e9\u0161\u0165na v\u00e1noce&#8221;; nezaj\u00edmav\u00e1 nen\u00ed ani \u00faprava p\u016fvodn\u00edho zn\u011bn\u00ed \u201eJestli bude v\u00edtr v\u00e1ti, budou m\u0159\u00edti potent\u00e1ti&#8221; na \u201e Jestli bude v\u00edtr v\u00e1ti, bude obil\u00ed n\u00e1m zr\u00e1ti&#8221;. Proto\u017ee t\u0159et\u00ed uveden\u00e1 pranostika se vztahuje ke dni Obr\u00e1cen\u00ed sv. Pavla, co\u017e je 25. ledna, je po proveden\u00e9 \u00faprav\u011b vhodn\u00e1 pro ji\u017en\u00ed polokouli, co\u017e jen dokl\u00e1d\u00e1 neoslabitelnou s\u00edlu pra\u00adnostik.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">4. PRANOSTIKY KALEND\u00c1\u0158N\u00cd A P\u0158\u00cdZNAKOV\u00c9<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">K zamy\u0161len\u00ed vede z\u00e1v\u011br Z. Profantov\u00e9, kter\u00e1 napsala: \u201eAni druh\u00e1 existence t\u011bchto v\u00fdrok\u016f &#8211; v rozhlase, televizi, tisku &#8211; nep\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 obohacen\u00ed, funguj\u00ed zde sp\u00ed\u0161e jako ozvl\u00e1\u0161t\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed kuriozity. V sou\u010dasnosti pranostiky ve v\u0161e\u00adobecnosti cen\u00edme ne v\u017edy pro praktickou, ale zejm\u00e9na pro jejich estetickou a historickou hodnotu.&#8221; Jde o konstatov\u00e1n\u00ed do t\u00e9 m\u00edry v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 (obsahuje v\u00fdrazy \u201eobohacov\u00e1n\u00ed&#8221; a \u201epraktick\u00e1 hodnota&#8221;), \u017ee nelze je p\u0159ej\u00edt bez polemiky a ko\u00adment\u00e1\u0159e. Nejprve je v\u0161ak pot\u0159eba rozd\u011blit pranostiky na ka\u00adlend\u00e1\u0159n\u00ed a p\u0159\u00edznakov\u00e9 \u010dili symptomatick\u00e9, proto\u017ee jejich funkce a vyu\u017eit\u00ed jsou odli\u0161n\u00e9 (obr. 2).<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/sites\/default\/files\/pranostiky.JPG\" alt=\"\" \/>Mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed upot\u0159ebitelnost ve vztahu k ve\u0159ejnosti maj\u00ed kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00ed pranostiky, kter\u00e9 se v\u00e1\u017e\u00ed k m\u011bs\u00edc\u016fm nebo konkr\u00e9tn\u00edm dn\u016fm se jm\u00e9ny sv\u011btc\u016f nebo ke k\u0159es\u0165ansk\u00fdm sv\u00e1tk\u016fm. Nap\u0159. slovensk\u00fd v\u00fdrok \u201e \u010co j\u00fal a august nedova\u0159\u00ed, to september neusma\u017e\u00ed&#8221; lze novin\u00e1\u0159\u016fm nab\u00edzet cel\u00e9 t\u0159i m\u011b\u00ads\u00edce a vd\u011b\u010dn\u00ed poslucha\u010di jej v\u017edy vyslechnou jako aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed hydrometeorologickou informaci. \u010ceskou pranostiku \u201eNa svatou Agripinu (23. 6.) odpo\u010d\u00edvej jenom ve st\u00ednu&#8221; m\u016f\u017eeme naopak p\u0159ipomenout jenom na svatou Agripinu, ov\u0161em vzhledem k z\u00e1va\u017enosti sd\u011blen\u00ed v dob\u011b v\u00fdskytu ozonov\u00e9 d\u00edry se vyrovn\u00e1 zpr\u00e1v\u011b Sol\u00e1rn\u00ed a ozonov\u00e9 observato\u0159e v Hradci Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9.<\/span><\/p><\/div><div><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Symptomatick\u00e9 pranostiky se nev\u00e1\u017eou na kalend\u00e1\u0159ovou chronologii; p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed podle n\u011bjak\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edznaku, kter\u00fdm m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt postaven\u00ed nebesk\u00fdch t\u011bles, lidsk\u00fd pocit, nap\u0159. revmatick\u00e9 bolesti, projevy v p\u0159\u00edrod\u011b, jako je chov\u00e1n\u00ed rostlin, zv\u00ed\u0159at a podobn\u011b. Hydroprogn\u00f3zn\u00ed v\u00fdznam maj\u00ed nap\u0159. pr\u016fpov\u00eddky \u201eKoza dv\u00edha chvost, voda berie most&#8221; nebo \u201eKan\u00e1ly zap\u00e1chaj\u00fa, bude pr\u0161a\u0165&#8221;.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">P\u0159\u00edznakov\u00e9 pranostiky slou\u017e\u00ed velmi kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 a kr\u00e1tko\u00addob\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed, maj\u00ed v\u0161ak pouze intern\u00ed v\u00fdznam a nejsou \u0161\u00ed\u0159eny pomoc\u00ed masm\u00e9di\u00ed, proto\u017ee nen\u00ed t\u0159eba, aby ve\u0159ejnost znala v\u0161echny p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed metody. N\u011bkter\u00e9 jsou i nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9, na\u0161t\u011bst\u00ed v jin\u00fdch oblastech ne\u017e na\u0161ich. (Kup\u0159. \u00fadajn\u011b v Burundi, kde jsou bou\u0159ky p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1ny nejen podle radarov\u00fdch a dru\u017eicov\u00fdch metod, n\u00fdbr\u017e tak\u00e9 na z\u00e1klad\u011b de\u00adtailn\u00edho pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed chov\u00e1n\u00ed lv\u016f. Proto\u017ee p\u0159i zhor\u0161en\u00ed vidi\u00adtelnosti mus\u00ed pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed prob\u00edhat zbl\u00edzka, kolektiv mete\u00adorolog\u016f b\u00fdv\u00e1 \u010dasto dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n o nov\u00e9 spolupracovn\u00edky.)<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Jeliko\u017e se m\u00e1me zab\u00fdvat hydrometeorologick\u00fdmi informacemi pro ve\u0159ejnost, budeme d\u00e1le hovo\u0159it jen o pra\u00adnostik\u00e1ch kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00edch. Jedin\u011b ty obsahuje Munzar\u016fv Me\u00addard, zat\u00edmco Profantov\u00e9 D\u00faha uv\u00e1d\u00ed i p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed podle hv\u011bzd, lid\u00ed, rostlin, ryb, oboj\u017eiveln\u00edk\u016f, \u010derv\u016f, slim\u00e1k\u016f a jin\u00e9 hav\u011bti. Jedna jej\u00ed slim\u00e1\u010d\u00ed pranostika pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nazna\u010duje zafront\u00e1ln\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed tlaku vzduchu, kdy\u017e prav\u00ed \u201eKe\u010fpo da\u017edi slim\u00e1ky vych\u00e1dzaj\u00fa von, bude pekne.&#8221;<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">I kdy\u017e kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00ed pranostiky jsou pro meteorology, re\u00addaktory i ve\u0159ejnost u\u010din\u011bn\u00e9 dobrodin\u00ed, neznamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee s nimi nejsou ur\u010dit\u00e9 pot\u00ed\u017ee.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm jsou \u010dasov\u011b nerovnom\u011brn\u011b rozd\u011bleny. P\u0159edko\u00adv\u00e9 je toti\u017e nevymysleli ani na ka\u017ed\u00fd druh\u00fd den v roce, za\u00adt\u00edmco pro tak zvan\u00e9 kritick\u00e9 neboli kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 dny jich vy\u00admysleli n\u011bkolik, dokonce i p\u0159es dvacet. St\u0159edov\u011bk\u00e9 ozna\u010den\u00ed \u201ekritick\u00fd den&#8221; je z hlediska meteorolog\u016f zcela nevhodn\u00e9, nebo\u0165 naopak za kritick\u00e9 dny pova\u017euj\u00ed dny, pro n\u011b\u017e pra\u00adnostiky bu\u010f nikdo nevytvo\u0159il, nebo dosud nena\u0161el. Tak je tomu t\u0159eba na God\u0161alka 19. \u00fanora. Proto je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 vyhov\u011bt novin\u00e1\u0159\u016fm, kte\u0159\u00ed podle zvol\u00e1n\u00ed Archim\u00e9da ze Syrakus\u201eDejte mi pevn\u00fd bod a j\u00e1 pohnu zem\u011bkoul\u00ed&#8221;, volaj\u00ed \u201eDejte n\u00e1m na ka\u017ed\u00fd den pranostiku a my u\u017e se n\u011bjak uchyt\u00edme&#8221; [3].<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">P\u0159ehr\u0161le pranostik v jednom dni je v\u0161ak veskrze prosp\u011b\u0161\u00adn\u00e1. Daj\u00ed se rozlo\u017eit do v\u00edce dn\u00ed. Z toho d\u016fvodu letos pro\u00adgnostici SHMU mohli poskytnout den\u00edku N\u00e1rodn\u00e1 obroda r\u016fzn\u00e9 augustinsk\u00e9 pranostiky ve t\u0159ech dnech za sebou, i kdy\u017e sv. Augustina je jenom 28. srpna, pro dva dal\u0161\u00ed dny toti\u017e po\u0159ekadla nejsou k m\u00e1n\u00ed. Dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdhody. Nap\u0159. pr\u016fpov\u00eddka \u201eVav\u0159inec (10. 8.) oharky osc\u00e1va&#8221; se d\u00e1 snadno zapama\u00adtovat, a proto nen\u00ed dobr\u00e9 ji opakovat, kdy\u017e se rok s rokem sejde. Meteorolog si m\u016f\u017ee na p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok vybrat zcela jinou pranostiku, dejme tomu \u201eVav\u0159inec na\u0161\u0165al do vody&#8221;, nebo s\u00e1hnout po \u010desk\u00e9m r\u010den\u00ed \u201eNa svat\u00e9ho Vav\u0159ince slune\u010dnost, v\u00edna hojnost&#8221;, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 slune\u010dn\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed a chce se zavd\u011b\u010dit vina\u0159\u016fm.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V\u0161ichni lid\u00e9 v\u0161ak nejsou stejn\u00ed, ka\u017ed\u00fd z nich netou\u017e\u00ed po zm\u011bn\u011b, pr\u00e1v\u011b opa\u010dn\u011b chce ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u011b sly\u0161et svou obl\u00ed\u00adbenou pranostiku, a podle toho, jestli se j\u00ed do\u010dk\u00e1 \u010di nikoliv, hodnot\u00ed pr\u00e1ci hydrometeorologick\u00e9ho \u00fastavu, novin a tele\u00advize. Protir\u00f3msky sm\u00fd\u0161lej\u00edc\u00ed ob\u010dan\u00e9 si r\u00e1di v\u017edy koncem ledna vyslechnou poznatky p\u0159edk\u016f \u201eFabi\u00e1nskej (20. 1.) zimy boja sa cig\u00e1n\u00ed&#8221; nebo \u201eO svat\u00e9m Fabi\u00e1nu a \u0160ebesti\u00e1nu zal\u00e9z\u00e1 zima za nehty i otu\u017eil\u00e9mu cik\u00e1nu&#8221; a podobn\u011b.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">5. T\u0158\u00cdD\u011aN\u00cd PRANOSTIK Z POHLEDU PRAXE<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u010cesk\u00e9 a slovensk\u00e9 pranostiky uv\u00e1d\u00edm d\u016fsledn\u011b v p\u016f\u00advodn\u00edch zn\u011bn\u00edch v obou sb\u00edrk\u00e1ch, ov\u0161em na progn\u00f3zn\u00edch pracovi\u0161t\u00edch jsou b\u011b\u017en\u011b a lehce p\u0159ekl\u00e1d\u00e1ny z \u010de\u0161tiny do slo\u00adven\u0161tiny a snad i opa\u010dn\u011b, krom\u011b n\u011bkter\u00fdch, kter\u00e9 jsou za\u00adpeklit\u011b nesrozumiteln\u00e9. T\u00edm se dost\u00e1v\u00e1me k rozt\u0159\u00edd\u011bn\u00ed pra\u00adnostik podle jejich vyu\u017eit\u00ed v progn\u00f3zn\u00ed a komer\u010dn\u00ed \u010dinnosti. Rozli\u0161ujeme \u010dty\u0159i druhy pranostik se\u0159azen\u00e9 od nej-\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00edch (rozum\u011bj nejprodejn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch) po problematick\u00e9.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/sites\/default\/files\/pranostiky1.JPG\" alt=\"\" \/>1. Pranostiky se stoprocentn\u00edm p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edm \u00fasp\u011bchem. Maj\u00ed charakter v\u011b\u010dn\u00fdch pravd bez ohledu na skute\u010dn\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed, \u017eel je jich velmi m\u00e1lo. P\u0159\u00edklad: \u201e Kdy\u017e na Silvestra (31. 12.) sn\u011b\u017e\u00ed, Nov\u00fd rok nen\u00ed daleko.&#8221;<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">2. Alternativn\u00ed pranostiky. P\u0159ipou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed (p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed) ur\u010dit\u00e9 nebo zcela opa\u010dn\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed, tak\u017ee jejich \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost spln\u011bn\u00ed konverguje ke 100 %. Jejich po\u010det je vcelku uspokojiv\u00fd, hodn\u011b pom\u00e1haj\u00ed v praxi. Nejzn\u00e1m\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je mat\u011bjsk\u00e9 r\u010den\u00ed o svat\u00e9m, kter\u00fd ledy d\u011bl\u00e1 nebo l\u00e1me: \u201eNajde-li Mat\u011bj (24. 2.) led, sek\u00e1 ho hned, nenajde-li led, d\u011bl\u00e1 ho hned.&#8221; Tot\u00e9\u017e se tvrd\u00ed i o sv. Virgilovi (14. 1.), sv. Anton\u00ednovi poustevn\u00edku (17.1.), sv. Tymotyji (24.1.), dokonce i \u201e T\u0159i kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 (6. 1.) mosty stav\u00ed nebo je bon. Podobn\u011b &#8220;Na svat\u00e9ho \u0160ebesti\u00e1na (20. 1.) se mus\u00ed n\u011bkdo utopit nebo zmrznout&#8221; a na \u201e\u0160imona a Judy (28. 10.), bu\u010f sn\u00edh nebo hrudy.&#8221;<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">K t\u011bmto pranostik\u00e1m po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1me i dvojice pr\u016fpov\u00eddek opa\u010dn\u00e9ho v\u00fdznamu, z nich\u017e lze v\u017edy vybrat tu pranosti\u00adku, kter\u00e1 se pr\u00e1v\u011b hod\u00ed. Nap\u0159. \u201eNa svatou Dorotu (6. 2.) r\u00e1do te\u010de do botu &#8221; a \u201e O svat\u00e9 Dorot\u011b uschne ko\u0161ile na plot\u011b&#8221; nebo dvojice \u201eNa svat\u00e9ho Bla\u017eeje (3. 2.) slunce je\u0161t\u011b neh\u0159eje&#8221; a \u201eNa svat\u00e9ho Bla\u017eeje kam\u00ednek se oh\u0159eje&#8221;, pokud se ov\u0161em kam\u00ednkem nemysl\u00ed kam\u00ednka, ve kter\u00fdch se je\u0161t\u011b mus\u00ed topit; jestli tedy nejde o dvojtvar, jako je brambor &#8211; brambora, hadr &#8211; hadra, ba\u010dkor &#8211; ba\u010dkora. Fabi\u00e1nsk\u00e9 pranostiky o t\u0159eskut\u00fdch mrazech zase vhodn\u011b dopl\u0148uje slovensk\u00e9 r\u010den\u00ed o oblev\u011b \u201eO Fabi\u00e1ne (20. L) rady si pre odm\u00e1k hovia sane.<\/span><\/p><\/div><div><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">3. Skupinu pranostik s \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm pou\u017eit\u00edm tvo\u0159\u00ed mal\u00fd po\u010det v\u00fdrok\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou do t\u00e9 m\u00edry nesrozumiteln\u00e9, \u017ee snesou t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 libovolnou interpretaci. Ta v\u0161ak b\u00fdv\u00e1 \u010dasov\u011b po\u00adm\u011brn\u011b n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e1, tak\u017ee pranostiky tohoto druhu v p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edm provozu doslova zdr\u017euj\u00ed. Slovensk\u00e1 pranostika \u201eNa Pavla (25.1.) kvap, pred lichvou hrab &#8221; m\u016f\u017ee \u010dinit probl\u00e9my i v Bratislav\u011b, nejen v \u010cesku, kde nev\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee zastaral\u00fd slo\u00advensk\u00fd v\u00fdraz lichva znamen\u00e1 hov\u011bz\u00ed dobytek (obr. 3).<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">I zcela srozumiteln\u00e9 pr\u016fpov\u00eddky o po\u010das\u00ed lze v\u0161ak ko\u00admentovat takov\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, jako by meteorologick\u00e1 informace pat\u0159ila do rubriky \u201ePro moudr\u00e9 hlavy&#8221;. Jako uk\u00e1zku citujeme z p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed na leto\u0161n\u00ed srpen tuto kr\u00e1tkou pas\u00e1\u017e ze Svobodn\u00e9ho slova z 31. 7. 1993: \u201eP\u0159ipome\u0148me si n\u011bkolik star\u00fdch lidov\u00fdch pranostik. Prav\u00addiv\u00e1 je bohu\u017eel n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed: &#8216;Co srpen neuva\u0159\u00ed, to u\u017e z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed nedosma\u017e\u00ed.&#8217; Vrcholn\u00fdm letn\u00edm m\u011bs\u00edcem je v pr\u016fm\u011bru toti\u017e \u010dervenec a srpen m\u00edv\u00e1 \u010dasto ji\u017e n\u00e1dech podzimn\u00edho m\u011bs\u00edce.&#8221; Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee v\u00fdklad se t\u00fdk\u00e1 jin\u00e9 dvojice m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, ne\u017e vzpom\u00edn\u00e1 pranostika, co\u017e podporuje hloubavost \u010dten\u00e1\u0159\u016f.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">4. Pranostiky s pou\u017eit\u00edm omezen\u00fdm. Je jich v\u011bt\u0161ina a mohou se hodit do kr\u00e1mu jen v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u011b p\u0159edpov\u00eddan\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed je v souladu s pranostikou vy\u00admy\u0161lenou k p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9mu dni nebo obdob\u00ed. Je-li studen\u00fd u\u017e \u0159\u00edjen, nen\u00ed na m\u00edst\u011b opo\u017ed\u011bn\u00e9 doporu\u010den\u00ed ke konci listopadu \u201eNa sv\u00e1tu Katar\u00ednu (25. 11.) schovajme sa pod pe\u0159inu &#8220;. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee po\u010d\u00e1tkem l\u00e9ta v dan\u00e9m roce jsou pole pod vodou a lid\u00e9 st\u00e1le promokl\u00ed, je l\u00e9pe se nezmi\u0148ovat o tom, \u017ee \u201eO svat\u00e9m Fortun\u00e1tu (1.6.) kapka de\u0161t\u011b m\u00e1 cenu duk\u00e1tu &#8220;, aby nedo\u0161lo na stran\u011b ve\u0159ejnosti, dostate\u010dn\u011b podr\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00e9 ji\u017e jin\u00fdmi ne\u017e meteorologick\u00fdmi zpr\u00e1vami, k animozit\u00e1m. Je sice pravda, \u017ee otrlej\u0161\u00ed no\u00advin\u00e1\u0159 nebo prognostik si m\u016f\u017ee vynal\u00e9zav\u011b vypomoci konstatov\u00e1n\u00edm, \u017ee ta a ta pranostika letos v\u016fbec nesed\u00ed, a tak ji stejn\u011b uplatnit, av\u0161ak to nejde d\u011blat \u0159adu dn\u00ed za sebou, v nich\u017e po\u010das\u00ed nerespektuje kalend\u00e1\u0159 a je mu lhostejn\u00e9 mudroslov\u00ed na\u0161eho \u010di jin\u00e9ho lidu.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">6. CO N\u00c1M CHYB\u00cd V U\u010cEBNICI<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">D\u00e1vno uplynula doba, kdy se pranostiky \u0161\u00ed\u0159ily jen \u00fastn\u00edm pod\u00e1n\u00edm, vych\u00e1zely v kalend\u00e1\u0159\u00edch a v n\u011bkter\u00fdch \u010dasopi\u00adsech. Funkci \u0161i\u0159itele pranostik\u00e1ln\u00edho folkl\u00f3ru zcela p\u0159evzaly hromadn\u00e9 sd\u011blovac\u00ed prost\u0159edky, k nim\u017e v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b p\u0159i\u00adbyly soukrom\u00e9 rozhlasov\u00e9 stanice. I ty se rychle napojily na meteorologick\u00e1 p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed \u00fast\u0159ed\u00ed jako na piln\u00e9 do\u00addavatele pov\u011btrnostn\u00edch pr\u016fpov\u00eddek. \u010cin\u00ed se v\u0161ak nejen centra, n\u00fdbr\u017e i p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed pracovi\u0161t\u011b na pobo\u010dk\u00e1ch \u010cHM\u00da, od kter\u00fdch loud\u00ed pranostiky region\u00e1ln\u00ed stanice i m\u00edstn\u00ed tisk. Lidov\u00e1 meteorologie se tud\u00ed\u017e dost\u00e1v\u00e1 ke v\u0161em ob\u010dan\u016fm, ka\u017edodenn\u011b pronik\u00e1 i do m\u011bstsk\u00fdch panelov\u00fdch byt\u016f. A je to spr\u00e1vn\u00e9, proto\u017ee mnoh\u00e9 informace mohou b\u00fdt u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9 i \u010dlov\u011bku bez vztahu k p\u016fd\u011b, jako nap\u0159. \u201eO svat\u00e9 \u0160kolastice (10. 2.) navle\u010d si rukavice&#8221; nebo \u201e Urban (25. 5.) e\u0161te niekedy bradou k\u00fdva&#8221;.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/sites\/default\/files\/pranostiky2.JPG\" alt=\"\" \/>P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm se v\u0161ak pranostiky o po\u010das\u00ed vracej\u00ed tam, odkud vy\u0161ly, do pol\u00ed a les\u016f, zahrad a chl\u00e9v\u016f. Jen zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 \u0161kolstv\u00ed jaksi zaost\u00e1v\u00e1. Dalo by se tak soudit podle toho, \u017ee \u010desk\u00e1 celost\u00e1tn\u00ed u\u010debnice agrometeorologie V. Havl\u00ed\u010dka a kol. [2] v\u016fbec neuv\u00e1d\u00ed pojem pranostika (vypadlo z n\u00ed i po\u010das\u00ed), tak\u017ee hroz\u00ed nebezpe\u010d\u00ed, \u017ee absolventi vysok\u00fdch \u0161kol zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch po n\u00e1stupu do transformovan\u00fdch zem\u011b\u00add\u011blsk\u00fdch dru\u017estev, soukrom\u00fdch farem a les\u016f nebudou spr\u00e1v\u00adn\u011b aplikovat lidov\u00e1 pou\u010den\u00ed. Meteorolog, omezen\u00fd \u010dasem a po probd\u011bl\u00e9 noci ob\u010das i rozumem, nem\u016f\u017ee toti\u017e v kr\u00e1tk\u00fdch rann\u00edch rozhlasov\u00fdch vstupech prezentovat pr\u016f\u00adpov\u00eddky tak, aby dob\u0159e poslou\u017eily u\u017eivatel\u016fm bez pat\u0159i\u010dn\u00e9ho \u0161koln\u00edho vzd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Jak ji\u017e bylo uvedeno, ne v\u0161echny pranostiky jsou tak lehce srozumiteln\u00e9 jako v\u00fdroky \u201eKto seje na V\u00edta (15. 6.), \u0161koda \u017eita&#8221;, \u201e\u010co do \u010eura (24. 4.) narastie, to po \u010eure skape&#8221; (Duro = Ji\u0159\u00ed), \u201e\u010c\u00edm d\u00e9le \u017ee\u017eulka po Janu (24. 6.) zp\u00edv\u00e1, t\u00edm dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u017eito na trhu b\u00fdv\u00e1&#8221; apod. Jsou mnohem n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed r\u010den\u00ed: \u201eNa VeVk\u00fa noc nem\u00e1 pr\u0161a\u0165 do hromu&#8221;, \u201eG\u00e1l (16. 10.) dievky bral&#8221; (G\u00e1l = Havel) anebo \u201eNa Filipa, Jakuba (1. 5.) chrousti hu\u010d\u00ed, o Martin\u011b studen\u00fd v\u00edtr fu\u010d\u00ed.&#8221; Jak se m\u00e1me postavit k starobyl\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti p\u0159edk\u016f, kdy\u017e chrousti v d\u016fsledku chemie ji\u017e v\u011bt\u0161inou dohu\u010deli? Slo\u00advenskou pranostiku \u201eMarec za\u017eenie slepice z vajec&#8221;, jej\u00ed\u017e predikativn\u00ed v\u00fdpov\u011b\u010f se nejevila frapantn\u00ed, mi objasnil a\u017e brn\u011bnsk\u00fd agrometeorolog Ing. Miloslav \u010cerm\u00e1k, podle n\u011bho\u017e slepice nevyh\u00e1n\u00ed b\u0159ezen, ale v tom \u010dase se l\u00edhnouc\u00ed ku\u0159ata. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m, \u017ee kolega studoval na vysok\u00e9 \u0161kole je\u0161t\u011b v dob\u011b, kdy pranostiky byly v osnov\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Je\u0161t\u011b jedno sd\u011blen\u00ed by mohlo b\u00fdt pro ve\u0159ejnost lidov\u00fdm reperto\u00e1rem hojn\u011b z\u00e1sobovanou, ale i pro ochotn\u00e9 mete\u00adorology zaj\u00edmav\u00e9: ze kter\u00fdch kon\u010din pranostiky, u n\u00e1s tra\u00addovan\u00e9 a roz\u0161i\u0159ovan\u00e9, byly do na\u0161ich zem\u00ed kdysi zavle\u010deny, jestli nepoch\u00e1zej\u00ed t\u0159eba z ji\u017en\u00ed Francie nebo od Severn\u00edho mo\u0159e. Ale to nev\u011bd\u00ed ani pan Munzar s pan\u00ed Profantovou (obr. 4).<\/span><\/p><\/div><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">7. Z\u00c1V\u011aR<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">P\u0159ipus\u0165me, \u017ee Z. Profantov\u00e1 m\u00e1 do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry pravdu, kdy\u017e konstatuje, \u017ee pranostiky v rozhlase, televizi a tisku funguj\u00ed hlavn\u011b jako ozvl\u00e1\u0161t\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed kuriozity. Nedoce\u0148uje v\u0161ak jejich v\u00fdznam ekonomick\u00fd, kter\u00fd pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159evy\u0161uje v\u00fdznam osv\u011btov\u011b vzd\u011bl\u00e1vac\u00ed a nesporn\u011b prognostick\u00fd. Ov\u011b\u00ad\u0159en\u00ed tohoto tvrzen\u00ed navrhuji n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm pokusem.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edch \u00fast\u0159ed\u00edch \u010cHM\u00da a SHM\u00da doporu\u010duji um\u00edstit dv\u011b pras\u00e1tka &#8211; pokladni\u010dky, jedno s n\u00e1pisem Munzar, druh\u00e9 s n\u00e1pisem Profantov\u00e1. Do nich by meteorologov\u00e9 od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku vhazovali mal\u00fd obolus v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee z n\u011bkter\u00e9 sb\u00edrky pou\u017eij\u00ed pr\u016fpov\u00eddku, kterou vy\u0161lou prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm masm\u00e9di\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dostiv\u00e9 ve\u0159ejnosti. Lze tu\u0161it, \u017ee kdyby za ka\u017edou pranostiku vydali jen jednu korunu, mohlo by b\u00fdt na Silvestra u Munzar\u016f a Profant\u016f velmi veselo.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">To proto, \u017ee na trhu hydrometeorologick\u00fdch informac\u00ed maj\u00ed pranostiky o po\u010das\u00ed trvale slu\u0161n\u00fd kurz. Sv\u00e9 postaven\u00ed si upevnily prazvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed symbi\u00f3zou s dru\u017eicov\u00fdmi sn\u00edmky a s v\u00fdstupy z numerick\u00fdch progn\u00f3zn\u00edch model\u016f. Dob\u0159e se prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed a na\u0161t\u011bst\u00ed je jich hodn\u011b publikov\u00e1no. A teta To\u00adni\u010dka z Ostrova\u010dic je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bjak\u00e9 sepisuje.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Literatura<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">[1] F\u00e1ndly, J.: Druh\u00e1 str\u00e1nka, v kterej po smrti prvn\u00e9ho, druh\u00fd piln\u00fd hospod\u00e1\u0159 vykl\u00e1d\u00e1 nev\u011bdom\u00e9mu hospod\u00e1\u0159ovi a leniv\u011bj gazdin\u011b, jak\u00e9 m\u00e1 pr\u00e1ce pres cel\u00fd rok v ka\u017ed\u00e9m m\u011bs\u00edci a jak\u00fdm sp\u00fasobem vykon\u00e1vat. Trnava 1792.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">[2] Havl\u00ed\u010dek, V. a kol: Agrometeorologie. Praha, St\u00e1t. ze\u00adm\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 nakladatelstv\u00ed 1986. 264 s.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">[3] Kr\u0161ka, K. &#8211; L\u00edpov\u00e1, M.: Ohlasy ve\u0159ejnosti na meteoro\u00adlogick\u00e9 informace v hromadn\u00fdch sd\u011blovac\u00edch prost\u0159edc\u00edch. Meteorol. Zpr., 41, 1986, \u010d. 4, s. 100-103.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">[4] Munzar, J.: Medardova k\u00e1p\u011b aneb Pranostiky o\u010dima me\u00adteorologa. Praha, Horizont 1. vyd. 1985 (238 s.), 2. vyd. 1986. 240 s.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">[5] Pejml, K.: O pranostik\u00e1ch a stolet\u00e9m kalend\u00e1\u0159i. V\u011bda a \u017eivot 1985, \u011b. 1, s. 12-15.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">[6] Profantov\u00e1, Z.: D\u00faha vodu pije. Slovensk\u00e9 ludov\u00e9 pra\u00adnostiky. Bratislava, Tatran 1986. 208 s.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">[7] Zverev, A. S.: Synoptick\u00e1 meteorol\u00f3gia. (P\u0159eklad z ru\u0161ti\u00adny). Bratislava, Alfa 1986. 712 s.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rteright\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Karel Kr\u0161ka, MZ 1993\/6, ro\u010dn\u00edk 46, str. 169-173<\/em><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>1. \u00daVOD Jakkoliv se sna\u017e\u00edm, aby \u00favod m\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku nevyzn\u011bl sk\u00e1celovsky a nebylo mu mo\u017eno up\u0159\u00edt ur\u010ditou jedine\u010dnost, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 jen u snahy. Nemohu potla\u010dit skute\u010dnost, \u017ee my\u0161len\u00adky, kter\u00e9 se pokus\u00edm [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-12441","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/12441","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12441"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/12441\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12445,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/12441\/revisions\/12445"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}