{"id":12322,"date":"2025-01-11T19:45:36","date_gmt":"2025-01-11T18:45:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/?page_id=12322"},"modified":"2025-01-11T19:51:14","modified_gmt":"2025-01-11T18:51:14","slug":"synopticka-meteorologia-a-predpovedanie-pocasia-v-blizkej-buducnosti","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/synopticka-meteorologia-a-predpovedanie-pocasia-v-blizkej-buducnosti\/","title":{"rendered":"SYNOPTICK\u00c1 METEOROL\u00d3GIA A PREDPOVEDANIE PO\u010cASIA V BL\u00cdZKEJ BUD\u00daCNOSTI"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"12322\" class=\"elementor elementor-12322\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-60b53fe elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"60b53fe\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-75b758b\" data-id=\"75b758b\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a7813b8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"a7813b8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.17.0 - 08-11-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">P\u0159elom storo\u010d\u00ed d\u00e1va podn\u011bty na ankety rozneho druhu. S anketami sa mo\u017eeme predov\u0161etk\u00fdm stretn\u00fa\u0165 v \u010dasopisoch bulv\u00e1rnej\u0161ieho razenia a v denn\u00edkoch, ale vyskytn\u00fa\u0165 sa mo\u017eu aj v seri\u00f3znej\u0161\u00edch \u010dasopisoch ur\u010den\u00fdch pre odborn\u00fa verejnos\u0165.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V\u00fdsledky pr\u00e1ce synoptick\u00fdch meteorol\u00f3gov mo\u017eeme bez v\u00e1hania zaradi\u0165 medzi najviac sledovan\u00e9 v \u0161irokej verejnosti. V\u010faka r\u00fdchlemu rozvoju numerick\u00fdch met\u00f3d a ich bezprostrednej aplik\u00e1cii v s\u00fa\u010dasnej synoptickej praxi do\u0161lo v priebehu posledn\u00fdch 20 rokov k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu posunu v pr\u00e1ci synoptick\u00e9ho meteorol\u00f3ga. V dosledku toho doch\u00e1dza niekedy aj ku kontroverzn\u00e9mu hodnoteniu nov\u00e9ho pr\u00edstupu. Najma konfront\u00e1cia tradi\u010dn\u00e9ho synoptick\u00e9ho pr\u00edstupu s nezastupitelnou \u00falohou subjekt\u00edvneho podielu synoptika a modernistick\u00e9ho pr\u00edstupu, vyjadruj\u00faceho tendenciu k \u010diasto\u010dnej alebo plnej automatiz\u00e1cii meteorologickej slu\u017eby, dala podnet na uskuto\u010dnenie tohto \u201eprieskumu\u201c. Preto sme sa s ot\u00e1zkou \u201eAk\u00fa m\u00e1te predstavu o v\u00fdvoji v synoptickej meteorol\u00f3gii a predpovedan\u00ed po\u010dasia v bl\u00edzkej bud\u00facnosti?\u201c obr\u00e1tili na 15 \u010desk\u00fdch a slovensk\u00fdch meteorol\u00f3gov. Predklad\u00e1me v\u00e1m odpovede t\u00fdch meteorol\u00f3gov, ktor\u00ed si na\u0161li ochotu a \u010das sa vyjadri\u0165.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>Prof. RNDr. Jan Bedn\u00e1\u0159, DrSc. (Katedra meteorologie a ochrany prost\u0159ed\u00ed MFF UK Praha)<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">K p\u0159edlo\u017een\u00e9 ot\u00e1zce ohledn\u011b p\u0159edstav o dal\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdvoji a budoucnosti synoptick\u00e9 meteorologie bych se cht\u011bl vyj\u00e1d\u0159it z pon\u011bkud \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho hlediska vztahuj\u00edc\u00edho se zejm\u00e9na k problematice v\u00fduky z\u00e1kladn\u00edch meteorologick\u00fdch discipl\u00edn a odborn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpravy p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00fdch specialist\u016f.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm se domn\u00edv\u00e1m, \u017ee ji\u017e samotn\u00fd pojem synoptick\u00e9 meteorologie, tak jak se mu rozum\u00ed v tradi\u010dn\u00edm smyslu, je dnes ji\u017e siln\u011b anachronick\u00fd. Z minulosti jsme byli zvykl\u00ed rozli\u0161ovat dynamickou meteorologii a synoptickou meteorologii, z nich\u017e prv\u00e1 p\u0159edstavovala teoretick\u00fd souhrn statiky, dynamiky, termodynamiky a cirkulace atmosf\u00e9ry poskytuj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1klad pro objektivn\u00ed (po\u010detn\u00ed, numerick\u00e9) meteorologick\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi, zat\u00edmco druh\u00e1 vytv\u00e1\u0159ela shrnut\u00ed meteorologick\u00e9 empirie, a to za \u00fa\u010delem sice t\u00fdch\u017e progn\u00f3z, ale formulovan\u00fdch klasickou cestou, tj. na z\u00e1klad\u011b subjektivn\u00ed zku\u0161enosti prognostika (zohled\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159irozen\u011b i zku\u0161enosti p\u0159edchoz\u00edch generac\u00ed) a empiricky z\u00edskan\u00fdch pravidel. Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee toto klasick\u00e9 rozd\u011blen\u00ed ji\u017e zcela ztratilo sv\u016fj p\u016fvodn\u00ed smysl, nebo\u0165 v aplika\u010dn\u00ed rovin\u011b dnes neexistuje odd\u011blen\u011b dynamick\u00e1 a synoptick\u00e1 meteorologie, ale postupn\u011b se vytvo\u0159ila jak\u00e1si \u201eSynoptica Nova\u201c zalo\u017een\u00e1 na interpretac\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f numerick\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edch model\u016f a dlouh\u00e9 \u0159ady diagnostick\u00fdch a prognostick\u00fdch veli\u010din formulovan\u00fdch v podob\u011b matematick\u00fdch vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed. I nejzku\u0161en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed meteorolog &#8211; prognostik dnes nem\u016f\u017ee konkurovat po\u010d\u00edta\u010di ve schopnosti dostate\u010dn\u011b rychle zpracovat a \u201evz\u00edt v \u00favahu\u201c obrovsk\u00fd po\u010det informac\u00ed spjat\u00fdch s pr\u00e1v\u011b zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdmi v\u00fdsledky a veli\u010dinami obsahuj\u00edc\u00edmi v sob\u011b velik\u00fd observa\u010dn\u00ed materi\u00e1l prezentovan\u00fd v\u0161ak ji\u017e nikoli v syrov\u00e9m stavu, ale pln\u011b zasazen\u00fd do \u0161irok\u00e9ho r\u00e1mce fyzik\u00e1ln\u00edch (a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b i dal\u0161\u00edch) d\u011bj\u016f prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edch v atmosf\u00e9\u0159e Zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Jsem si pln\u011b v\u011bdom, \u017ee kone\u010dn\u00e1 interpretace v\u0161ech matematicky formulovateln\u00fdch diagnostick\u00fdch a prognostick\u00fdch veli\u010din m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov\u011b objektivizov\u00e1na a \u017ee v\u00fdsledky vlastn\u00edch numerick\u00fdch prognostick\u00fdch model\u016f lze s \u00fasp\u011bchem podrobit automatizovan\u00e9mu \u201epostprocessingu\u201c pomoc\u00ed statistick\u00fdch model\u016f \u010di vhodn\u00fdch objektivn\u011b funguj\u00edc\u00edch expertn\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e je ov\u0161em nutno po\u010d\u00edtat s objektivn\u011b existuj\u00edc\u00edm, a tedy principi\u00e1ln\u011b nep\u0159ekonateln\u00fdm omezen\u00edm prediktability deterministick\u00e9ho typu v d\u016fsledku neline\u00e1rn\u00edho charakteru dynamick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu zemsk\u00e9 atmosf\u00e9ry. Navzdory v\u0161em t\u011bmto skute\u010dnostem se v\u0161ak domn\u00edv\u00e1m, \u017ee p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm v \u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu, na kter\u00fd je\u0161t\u011b m\u016f\u017ee dohl\u00e9dnout dne\u0161n\u00ed generace, z\u016fstane zachov\u00e1na u\u017eite\u010dnost a pot\u0159ebnost alespo\u0148 logick\u00e9 \u201esupervize\u201c lidsk\u00e9ho faktoru v cel\u00e9m souboru \u010dinnost\u00ed vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00edc\u00edch meteorologickou prognostiku, a to p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v jeho interpreta\u010dn\u00edch sektorech. Co bude za horizontem na\u0161\u00ed dohlednosti do budoucna zahaluje mlha a je v\u011bc\u00ed pouze dohad\u016f. M\u00e1m v\u0161ak v\u00edru, \u017ee inspirativn\u00ed role lidsk\u00e9ho rozumu a inteligence nezmiz\u00ed z na\u0161eho koutku vesm\u00edru d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e se vy\u010derpaj\u00ed meze jeho fyzick\u00e9 \u017eivotnosti.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">K uveden\u00e9mu p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed o nezbytnosti lidsk\u00e9 \u201esupervize\u201c nad \u010dinnost\u00ed automatick\u00fdch prognostick\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f v meteorologii mne vede racion\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00favaha, kter\u00e1 v\u0161ak p\u0159irozen\u011b m\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161e filosofickou ne\u017e exaktn\u00ed povahu. Existuje-li toti\u017e v meteorologick\u00fdch d\u011bj\u00edch indeterministick\u00e1 slo\u017eka, potom je principi\u00e1ln\u011b nemo\u017en\u00e9 zkonstruovat dokonal\u00fd deterministick\u00fd model, popisuj\u00edc\u00ed pln\u011b (beze zbytku) atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fd syst\u00e9m a v\u0161echny jeho funkce. Na\u0161e prognostick\u00e9 modely proto nikdy nemohou pln\u011b vystihnout realitu, ale p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed v\u017edy pouze ne\u00faplnou aproximaci. Lze si v\u0161ak st\u011b\u017e\u00ed p\u0159edstavit, \u017ee by mohla existovat pouze jedna absolutn\u011b nejlep\u0161\u00ed a sou\u010dasn\u011b nutn\u011b nedokonal\u00e1 aproximace. Budou-li proto existovat r\u016fzn\u00e9 modely aproximuj\u00edc\u00ed atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 d\u011bje, bude v\u017edy existovat ur\u010dit\u00e1 r\u016fznost jejich v\u00fdstup\u016f a odtud plyne nutnost lidsk\u00e9 supervize. Nebylo by j\u00ed ov\u0161em t\u0159eba, kdyby lidsk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost dosp\u011bla k takov\u00e9 organizaci, kter\u00e1 by vylou\u010dila v\u0161echnu individualitu a pluralitu. N\u011bjak\u00e1 celosv\u011btov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da by pak ovl\u00e1dala my\u0161len\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00e9ho lidsk\u00e9ho individua a snadno by mohla na\u0159\u00eddit, aby byl v meteorologii pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n pouze jedin\u00fd model. Takov\u00e1to vskutku orwelovsk\u00e1 moc by v\u0161ak p\u0159edstavovala konec v\u011bdy, kultury a ve\u0161ker\u00e9 lidskosti. Nem\u00e1me-li propadnout \u00fapln\u00e9mu nihilismu, v\u011b\u0159me, \u017ee nikdy nenastane.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>Doc. RNDr. Ferdinand Hesek, CSc. (Geofyzik\u00e1lny \u00fastav SAV Bratislava)<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Medzi na\u0161imi kolegami na \u00fastave jednozna\u010dne prevl\u00e1da n\u00e1zor, \u017ee uplynie e\u0161te vela \u010dasu, k\u00fdm po\u010d\u00edta\u010de bud\u00fa schopn\u00e9 fungova\u0165 samostatne, nez\u00e1visle od synoptikov. V odpovedi na Va\u0161u ot\u00e1zku: Minim\u00e1lne v najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch 10 rokoch bude ma\u0165 synoptik nezastupiteln\u00fa \u00falohu pri progn\u00f3ze po\u010dasia.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>Doc. RNDr. Eva Hrouzkov\u00e1, CSc. (Katedra meteorol\u00f3gie a klimatol\u00f3gie FMFI UK Bratislava)<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Je nesporn\u00e9, \u017ee sa rozvojom numerick\u00fdch met\u00f3d a rovnako i rozvojom Internetu zmenili pracovn\u00e9 postupy synoptika. V tomto smere sa v bl\u00edzkej bud\u00facnosti rozvoj nezastav\u00ed, naopak mo\u017eeme \u010daka\u0165 \u010fal\u0161\u00ed r\u00fdchly v\u00fdvoj najma v prenose d\u00e1t.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Takmer denne sledujem v\u00fdsledky roznych numerick\u00fdch modelov, pokial\u2019 sa k nim dostanem, ale iba prostredn\u00edctvom internetovskej str\u00e1nky Top Karten z Karlsruhe. Pripom\u00ednam, \u017ee nie som zamestnancom SHM\u00da, resp. \u010cHM\u00da, ani sa nepo- dielam na rie\u0161en\u00ed probl\u00e9mov numerick\u00fdch modelov, a preto nem\u00e1m pr\u00edstup ku mnoh\u00fdm aktu\u00e1lnym materi\u00e1lom. Na z\u00e1klade porovn\u00e1vania v\u00fdsledkov roznych modelov som presved\u010den\u00e1, \u017ee je pr\u00e1ca synoptika e\u0161te st\u00e1le nezastupiteln\u00e1, a to nielen pri kontrole, ale i pri vyu\u017e\u00edvan\u00ed v\u00fdsledkov modelov.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u010eal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj synoptickej meteorol\u00f3gie bude rozhodne z\u00e1visie\u0165 od rozvoja numerick\u00fdch met\u00f3d a mo\u017enosti ich vyu\u017eitia v na\u0161om odbore. Okrem zlep\u0161ovania v\u00fdsledkov numerick\u00fdch modelov bude tie\u017e dole\u017eit\u00e1 mo\u017enos\u0165 operat\u00edvneho vyu\u017eitia t\u00fdchto v\u00fdsledkov ako i inform\u00e1ci\u00ed z meteorologick\u00fdch dru\u017e\u00edc a radarov.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">D\u00fafam, \u017ee ekonomick\u00e1 situ\u00e1cia neskomplikuje podmienky v synoptickej slu\u017ebe. Som ale presved\u010den\u00e1, \u017ee kvalita najma \u0161peci\u00e1lnych predpoved\u00ed bude ovplyv\u0148ova\u0165 i na\u010falej z\u00e1ujem firiem o meteorologick\u00e9 inform\u00e1cie.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>RNDr. Dagmar Kri\u0161kov\u00e1 (SHM\u00da Bratislava)<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Nem\u00e1m jednozna\u010dn\u00fd n\u00e1zor na \u010fal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvin v oblasti predpoved\u00ed po\u010dasia. Na jednej strane je tu jasn\u00fd n\u00e1stup numerick\u00fdch predpoved\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch prvkov, ktor\u00e9 sa daj\u00fa velmi dobre transformova\u0165 do roznych tabuliek, grafov, obr\u00e1zkov a pod., a teda v\u00fdstupy z nich sa daj\u00fa \u201eu\u0161i\u0165\u201c presne na mieru jednotliv\u00fdm odberatelom. Na druhej strane je tu viac \u010di menej podvedom\u00fd strach meteorol\u00f3gov, \u010di u\u017e zo straty zamestnania, alebo aspo\u0148 zo straty doteraj\u0161ej rozhoduj\u00facej poz\u00edcie pri tvorbe predpoved\u00ed, \u010do pochopitelne vpl\u00fdva na posudzovanie nielen hodnoty numerick\u00fdch predpoved\u00ed ako tak\u00fdch, ale celej z toho vypl\u00fdvaj\u00facej situ\u00e1cie. Tro\u0161ku neskromne si nam\u00fd\u0161lam, \u017ee bl\u00ed\u017eiaci sa dochodok ma ochr\u00e1ni od podobn\u00e9ho skreslovania situ\u00e1cie a dod\u00e1 mi potrebn\u00fd odstup, ale nie som si t\u00fdm a\u017e tak\u00e1 ist\u00e1. Pok\u00fasim sa by\u0165 stru\u010dn\u00e1. V najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch rokoch, \u010di dokonca desa\u0165ro\u010d\u00ed neo\u010dak\u00e1vam vznik nejakej prevratne novej synoptickej predpovednej met\u00f3dy, len mal\u00e9 vylep\u0161ovanie u\u017e doteraz existuj\u00facich postupov, spres\u0148ovanie koeficientov, \u010di hladanie nov\u00fdch vazieb a z\u00e1vislost\u00ed a pod. a v\u0161etky takto z\u00edskan\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky bud\u00fa vyu\u017eiteln\u00e9 aj pri spres\u0148ovan\u00ed numerick\u00fdch predpoved\u00ed. Samozrejme mo\u017ee dojs\u0165 k v\u00fdraznej zmene a nejak\u00fd g\u00e9nius vymysl\u00ed nie\u010do \u00faplne nov\u00e9, \u010do si ja teraz ani neviem predstavi\u0165, ale spolieha\u0165 sa na narodenie g\u00e9nia, no neviem, neviem.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V dosledku hore uveden\u00e9ho, ako aj \u010fal\u0161ieho v\u00fdskumu na poli numerick\u00fdch modelov predpoklad\u00e1m, \u017ee tieto bud\u00fa st\u00e1le presnej\u0161ie, aspo\u0148 na tak\u00e9 obdobie, kde narastaj\u00face chyby nenarobia vela neplechy a tak sa \u00faloha meteorol\u00f3ga pri ich kontrole, \u010di nejakej \u00faprave postupne \u00faplne potla\u010d\u00ed. U\u017e teraz nie je treba takmer zasahova\u0165 do niektor\u00fdch numerick\u00fdch predpoved\u00ed, ktor\u00e9 na oddelen\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edvame, v in\u00fdch vieme presne, kde sa opakuj\u00fa chyby a pri troche pr\u00e1ce zo strany numerikov a meteorol\u00f3gov by sa dali odstr\u00e1ni\u0165. Tak\u017ee u\u017e v s\u00fa\u010das- nosti by sa dali numerick\u00e9 predpovede rozdeli\u0165 do troch sku- p\u00edn: v jednej s\u00fa tie, ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa \u00faplne bez z\u00e1sahu meteorol\u00f3ga, v druhej s\u00fa tie, kde mus\u00ed kontrolova\u0165 a opravova\u0165 to, \u010do si mysl\u00ed, \u017ee je chybn\u00e9 a v tretej s\u00fa tie, ktor\u00e9 meteorol\u00f3g s\u00edce berie na vedomie, ale vobec ich nemus\u00ed pri tvorbe predpovede pou\u017ei\u0165, ale vyberie si niektor\u00fd in\u00fd (predpovedn\u00fd) model. Tak\u00e1 je napr\u00edklad situ\u00e1cia pri predpovedi na viac dn\u00ed, kde nem\u00e1me zatial tak\u00fd model ako je ALADIN. Preto je \u00falohou meteorol\u00f3ga vybra\u0165 si jeden z modelov alebo dokonca mo\u017ee pou\u017ei\u0165 nejak\u00fa cestu medzi nimi. Ako som u\u017e nap\u00edsala, t\u00fdch plno automatick\u00fdch predpoved\u00ed bude st\u00e1le viac, najma na krat\u0161ie \u010dasov\u00e9 obdobie.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Okrem predpoved\u00ed na dlh\u0161ie \u010dasov\u00e9 obdobie by sa meteorol\u00f3govia podla m\u0148a mohli najviac uplatni\u0165 v oblastiach na hraniciach discipl\u00edn, ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa doteraz najmenej preb\u00e1dan\u00e9 a kde je e\u0161te dos\u0165 \u0161irok\u00e9 pole na v\u00fdskum, a to nielen ako to pozn\u00e1me z SHM\u00da medzi meteorol\u00f3giou a hydrol\u00f3giou alebo \u010distotou ovzdu\u0161ia, ale aj v takom praktickom vyu\u017eit\u00ed meteo- rol\u00f3gie ako napr\u00edklad pre energetikov, polnohospod\u00e1rov, stavb\u00e1rov a pod., kde bude meteorol\u00f3g vych\u00e1dza\u0165 bu\u010f zo v\u0161eobecnej numerickej predpovede a na jej z\u00e1klade zostav\u00ed predpove\u010f podla po\u017eiadaviek odberatela, alebo bude spolupracova\u0165 s numerick\u00fdm meteorol\u00f3gom, aby automatick\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkom bola predpove\u010f presne podla uveden\u00fdch po\u017eiadaviek. \u010ci sa n\u00e1m to p\u00e1\u010di alebo nie, meteorol\u00f3govia v bl\u00edzkej bu d\u00facnosti musia by\u0165 aj program\u00e1tormi, preto\u017ee, \u010di u\u017e bud\u00fa dop\u00ed\u0148a\u0165 e\u0161te st\u00e1le existuj\u00face medzery v spracovan\u00ed \u00fadajov a v\u00fdskume u\u017e nameran\u00e9ho, alebo sa bud\u00fa viac venova\u0165 len tomu, \u010do n\u00e1s \u010dak\u00e1, nikde sa bez tejto doplnkovej profesie nezaob\u00eddu. Preto na z\u00e1ver mus\u00edm, \u017eial, skon\u0161tatova\u0165, \u017ee predpoklad\u00e1m skor\u00e9 vymretie tradi\u010dn\u00fdch synoptikov n\u00f3rskej \u0161koly po me\u010di aj po praslici.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>RNDr. Jan Pavl\u00edk (\u010cHM\u00da Praha)<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V\u00fdvoj meteorologick\u00e9 slu\u017eby sm\u011b\u0159uje ke zdokonalov\u00e1n\u00ed numerick\u00fdch model\u016f atmosf\u00e9ry s tendenc\u00ed automatizovat p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed. P\u0159i sou\u010dasn\u00e9 \u00farovni p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed z numerick\u00fdch model\u016f pokl\u00e1d\u00e1m za nezbytn\u00e9, aby garantem p\u0159edpov\u011bdi byl meteorolog, kter\u00fd je schopen do ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u00edry eliminovat n\u011bkter\u00e9 systematick\u00e9 i jin\u00e9 chyby modelu, zejm\u00e9na v kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00edch. Nav\u00edc pro velmi kr\u00e1tkodobou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f nejsou je\u0161t\u011b kvalitn\u00ed numerick\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi k dispozici. P\u0159i rozd\u00edln\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00edch jednotliv\u00fdch model\u016f je \u010dast\u00fdm \u00fakolem meteorologa rozhodnout se pro ur\u010dit\u00fd v\u00fdvoj pov\u011btrnostn\u00ed situace. To pokl\u00e1d\u00e1m za lep\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup, ne\u017e se orientovat pouze na jeden model. V budoucnosti lze p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat dal\u0161\u00ed postupn\u00e9 zdokonalov\u00e1n\u00ed numerick\u00fdch model\u016f a t\u00edm poroste jejich v\u00fdznam pro p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed. P\u0159esto se domn\u00edv\u00e1m, \u017ee v n\u011bkter\u00fdch ohledech z\u016fstane role meteorologa nezastupiteln\u00e1. Podle AMS z\u016fstane na meteorologovi zejm\u00e9na \u00fakol vyd\u00e1vat specifick\u00e1 doporu\u010den\u00ed za specifick\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed, s \u010d\u00edm\u017e lze podle m\u00e9ho soudu souhlasit. Nechat v\u0161e na programech po\u010d\u00edta\u010d\u016f by se nemuselo vyplatit. Nelze p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee budou n\u011bkdy dokonal\u00e9. Nab\u00edz\u00ed se r\u016fzn\u00e9 paralely. Nap\u0159. v l\u00e9ka\u0159stv\u00ed by se pacienti asi tak\u00e9 necht\u011bli sv\u011b\u0159it pouze technice, i kdy\u017e jej\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed je nezbytn\u00e9. A vezmeme-li si p\u0159\u00edpad ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 trag\u00e9die v Kaprunu, uk\u00e1zalo se, \u017ee naprogramov\u00e1n\u00ed techniky nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt v\u017edy \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9 a n\u011bkdy m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9. V neposledn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b se domn\u00edv\u00e1m, \u017ee vzd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed, zku\u0161enosti a schopnost se spr\u00e1vn\u011b rozhodovat budou i v budoucnu pot\u0159ebn\u00e9, a to nejen v meteorologii.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>RNDr. Daniela \u0158ez\u00e1\u010dov\u00e1, CSc. (\u00dastav fyziky atmosf\u00e9ry AV \u010cR)<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 NWP modely dos\u00e1hly dobr\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b zejm\u00e9na v oblasti kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi meteorologick\u00fdch pol\u00ed a zd\u00e1nliv\u011b snadno lze v\u00fdstupy NWP modelu p\u0159epsat do jazyka p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed. V \u0159ad\u011b synoptick\u00fdch situac\u00ed i pro \u0159adu meteorologick\u00fdch prvk\u016f to skute\u010dn\u011b plat\u00ed a tento fakt p\u016fsob\u00ed velmi sv\u016fdn\u011b. I z ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 historie extr\u00e9mn\u00edch sr\u00e1\u017eek na na\u0161em \u00fazem\u00ed v\u0161ak v\u00edme, jak klamn\u00e9 to m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt. Je proto d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 nepodlehnout tomuto zjednodu\u0161en\u00ed role synoptika na interpret\u00e1tora v\u00fdstup\u016f modelu, starostliv\u011b verifikovat v\u00fdsledky model\u016f a nespokojit se s konstatov\u00e1n\u00edm, \u017ee dnes to nevy\u0161lo, \u017ee model lok\u00e1ln\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eky neum\u00ed a nikdy um\u011bt nebude, nebo \u017ee ten \u010di onen provozn\u00ed model pojednal danou situaci l\u00e9pe a jin\u00fd h\u016f\u0159e. V\u011bt\u0161ina synoptik\u016f ch\u00e1pe model jako jistou \u010dernou sk\u0159\u00ednku a p\u0159i sv\u00e9 specializaci a pracovn\u00edm vyt\u00ed\u017een\u00ed nem\u016f\u017ee studovat nedokonalosti formulace modelov\u00fdch rovnic, u\u017eit\u00e9 numerick\u00e9 metody, nebo kvalitu koncep\u010dn\u00edho fyzik\u00e1ln\u00edho modelu, kter\u00fd je z\u00e1kladem modelov\u00fdch rovnic a parametrizac\u00ed. P\u0159esto pr\u00e1v\u011b verifikace modelov\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f a konfrontace s meteorologick\u00fdmi znalostmi m\u016f\u017ee ke zlep\u0161en\u00ed modelu velmi p\u0159isp\u011bt tam, kde je to v\u016fbec mo\u017en\u00e9 z principi\u00e1ln\u00edho hlediska prediktability chov\u00e1n\u00ed atmosf\u00e9ry.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">U\u017e v samotn\u00e9m slov\u011b model je ur\u010dit\u00fd stupe\u0148 aproximace obsa\u017een. P\u0159ehnan\u00fd optimizmus t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se mo\u017enost\u00ed zmen\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed kroku modelu nebo prodlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed doby je v mnoha p\u0159\u00edpadech jen m\u00e1lo podlo\u017een\u00fd (nap\u0159. v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b sr\u00e1\u017eek pro lok\u00e1ln\u00ed kvantitativn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f, pro p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f extr\u00e9mn\u00edch jev\u016f r\u016fzn\u00fdch kategori\u00ed aj.). P\u0159esto se domn\u00edv\u00e1m, \u017ee potenci\u00e1l NWP model\u016f nen\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b zdaleka vy\u010derp\u00e1n. Nejde jen o ot\u00e1zky v\u00fdpo\u010detn\u00ed kapacity a v \u0161irok\u00e9 oblasti probl\u00e9m\u016f nejde ani o probl\u00e9my prediktability. Dost\u00e1v\u00e1me se tak k pojmu \u201etradi\u010dn\u00ed synoptick\u00e9 postupy\u201c, kter\u00fd ch\u00e1pu ne jako technologii tvorby p\u0159edpov\u011bdi, ale jako zp\u016fsob uva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed tedy subjektivn\u00ed aplikaci koncep\u010dn\u00edho meteorologick\u00e9ho modelu a dnes ji\u017e i srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s v\u00fdsledkem NWP modelu.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Prof. Browning v 80. letech napsal \u0159adu \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f na t\u00e9ma interpretace dru\u017eicov\u00fdch v\u00fdstup\u016f, nov\u00fdch poznatk\u016f o siln\u00e9 konvekci apod. Vytv\u00e1\u0159el tak nov\u00e9 koncep\u010dn\u00ed modely pro aplikaci v meteorologick\u00e9m provozu. Dr. Kurz z DWD v r\u00e1mci projektu COST78 sumarizoval \u0159adu meteorologick\u00fdch koncep\u010dn\u00edch model\u016f, po\u010d\u00ednaje norsk\u00fdm modelem cyklony st\u0159. z. \u0161\u00ed\u0159ek a\u017e nap\u0159. k vazb\u011b mezi anom\u00e1li\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed vorticity a cyklogenez\u00ed. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 v n\u011bkolika prac\u00edch uk\u00e1zal, jak d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je konfrontovat v\u00fdsledky NWP modelu se skute\u010dnost\u00ed, aplikovat i vytv\u00e1\u0159et nov\u00e9 koncep\u010dn\u00ed modely v oblasti cyklogeneze, intenzifikace front\u00e1ln\u00edch vln aj. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e1 synoptick\u00e1 meteorologie je zcela propojen\u00e1 s meteorologi\u00ed dynamickou. V\u00fdvoj a budoucnost synoptick\u00e9 meteorologie je tedy v jej\u00ed n\u00e1vaznosti na rostouc\u00ed porozum\u011bn\u00ed dynamick\u00e9mu chov\u00e1n\u00ed atmosf\u00e9ry, v tvorb\u011b nov\u00fdch koncep\u010dn\u00edch model\u016f a v jejich verifikaci. D\u016fsledkem je potom i zahrnut\u00ed t\u011bchto koncepc\u00ed do algoritm\u016f NWP modelu nebo do diagnostiky modelov\u00fdch v\u00fdstup\u016f.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Dal\u0161\u00ed typy \u00favah by mohly sm\u011b\u0159ovat nap\u0159. k p\u0159echodu synoptick\u00e9 meteorologie k meteorologii \u201emezosynoptick\u00e9\u201c, k dokonalej\u0161\u00edmu zapojen\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edch informa\u010dn\u00edch zdroj\u016f do p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edho apar\u00e1tu, k vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed jin\u00fdch metod nad r\u00e1mec v\u00fdstup\u016f NWP modelu (statistick\u00e9 modely, prost\u0159edky um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence). Jde o \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed ot\u00e1zek spjat\u00fdch s konkr\u00e9tn\u00edmi u\u017eivatelsk\u00fdmi probl\u00e9my. Z\u00e1v\u011brem tedy: Synoptick\u00e1 meteorologie se velmi vyv\u00edj\u00ed a jako synopticko-dynamick\u00e1 meteorologie m\u00e1 p\u0159ed sebou je\u0161t\u011b dlouhou cestu. Nesm\u00edme ji v\u0161ak zredukovat na interpretaci v\u00fdstup\u016f z NWP modelu nebo ch\u00e1pat ji v tom nejtrivi\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm smyslu jako provozn\u00ed subjektivn\u00ed aplikaci dnes ji\u017e v\u00edce ne\u017e klasick\u00fdch koncep\u010dn\u00edch model\u016f.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>RNDr. Josef \u0160tekl, CSc. (\u00dastav fyziky atmosf\u00e9ry AV \u010cR)<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">M\u00e1 subjekt &#8211; synoptik svoje nezastupiteln\u00e9 m\u00edsto p\u0159i tvorb\u011b a formulaci p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed nebo ho ji\u017e nahradily objektivn\u00ed po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov\u00e9 metody?<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Postav\u00edme-li tuto ot\u00e1zku na zjednodu\u0161en\u00e9m \u010dernob\u00edl\u00e9m ch\u00e1p\u00e1n\u00ed, mohli bychom odpov\u011bd\u011bt n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed v\u011btou: Pokud \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost meteorologick\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi bude vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed numerickou metodou, pak synoptick\u00e1 metoda p\u0159est\u00e1v\u00e1 m\u00edt smysl. P\u0159i tomto rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed se mus\u00ed velmi uv\u00e1\u017eliv\u011b volit metoda hodnocen\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nosti p\u0159edpov\u011bdi. V prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b se mus\u00ed hodnotit odd\u011blen\u011b, a to jak p\u0159edpov\u00eddan\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e9 prvky, tak i meteorologick\u00e9 jevy. Metoda hodnocen\u00ed mus\u00ed postihovat lokality jednotliv\u00fdch meteorologick\u00fdch stanic, mus\u00ed postihovat \u010dasov\u00e9 hledisko a mus\u00ed umo\u017e\u0148ovat hodnocen\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nosti extr\u00e9mn\u00edch stav\u016f a jev\u016f. Na tomto m\u00edst\u011b mus\u00edm zopakovat zn\u00e1mou skute\u010dnost, kter\u00e1 se projevuje p\u0159i hodnocen\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nosti p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed. V dlouhodob\u00e9m pr\u016fm\u011bru, nap\u0159. m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edm, jsou \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00ed metody, kter\u00e9 t\u011b\u017e\u00ed z p\u0159\u00ednosu nej\u010dast\u011bji se vyskytuj\u00edc\u00edch stav\u016f, tedy stav\u016f bl\u00edzk\u00fdch pr\u016fm\u011bru. Nevypl\u00e1c\u00ed se riskovat v p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00edch extr\u00e9mn\u00edch stav\u016f, proto\u017ee i m\u00e1lo ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed zat\u00ed\u017e\u00ed v\u00fdsledek v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed chybou. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b v\u0161ak p\u0159edpov\u011bdi t\u011bchto extr\u00e9mn\u00edch stav\u016f maj\u00ed pro spot\u0159ebitele nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed cenu. \u00dasp\u011b\u0161nost takov\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed by v celkov\u00e9m sch\u00e9matu hodnocen\u00ed m\u011bla b\u00fdt zv\u00fdhodn\u011bna. Zd\u016fraz\u0148ujeme, \u017ee z\u00e1kladn\u00ed vlastnost\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161iny postprocessingov\u00fdch metod je preferov\u00e1n\u00ed stav\u016f bl\u00edzk\u00fdch pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9mu stavu na \u00fakor p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f le\u017e\u00edc\u00edch v krajn\u00edch \u010d\u00e1stech rozd\u011blen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Ve skute\u010dnosti v\u0161ak podobn\u00e9 rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed mus\u00ed vz\u00edt v \u00favahu spektrum dal\u0161\u00edch barev, kter\u00e9 probl\u00e9m obsahuje. Jsem p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee nejen metodick\u00e1, ale i lidsk\u00e1 slo\u017eka diskutovan\u00e9ho probl\u00e9mu m\u00e1 nepominuteln\u00fd v\u00fdznam.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Synoptick\u00e1 metoda doznala b\u011bhem osmdes\u00e1ti let sv\u00e9ho trv\u00e1n\u00ed od vzniku norsk\u00e9 \u0161koly postupn\u00e1 zlep\u0161en\u00ed, vych\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed z nov\u00fdch technik m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed (radiosond\u00e1\u017en\u00ed m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed, radarov\u00e1 a dru\u017eicov\u00e1 m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed), ale nosn\u00e1 my\u0161lenka metody z\u016fstala zachov\u00e1na. Jde o synoptickou anal\u00fdzu vrchol\u00edc\u00ed anal\u00fdzou atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fdch front a jejich n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed. Objev a existence front\u00e1ln\u00ed anal\u00fdzy p\u0159inesly do synoptick\u00e9 metody mj. i ur\u010ditou \u201ekostru\u201c pro p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed a hlavn\u011b pro p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f zm\u011bn po\u010das\u00ed. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b vyvolaly \u0159adu diskus\u00ed<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">O existenci objektu, kter\u00fd nen\u00ed jednozna\u010dn\u011b exaktn\u011b definov\u00e1n. Tyto diskuse nabyly na intenzit\u011b v dob\u011b, kdy se numeri\u010dt\u00ed model\u00e1\u0159i za\u010dali pot\u00fdkat s ot\u00e1zkami diskontinuit na atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fdch front\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Ti, kdo mohli proniknout do \u010dasto hazard\u00e9rsk\u00e9ho charakteru pr\u00e1ce jako je p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed, dob\u0159e v\u00ed, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina \u201ekomplikac\u00ed\u201c je spojena s atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fdmi frontami. \u010casov\u011b rychl\u00e1 zm\u011bna jejich intenzity jedn\u00edm i druh\u00fdm sm\u011brem, vln\u011bn\u00ed studen\u00fdch front se zm\u011bnou nejen intenzity i sm\u011bru a rychlosti jejich postupu, vliv orografie na chov\u00e1n\u00ed front, projevy front ve v\u00edce p\u00e1sech, tvorbu zafront\u00e1ln\u00edch studen\u00fdch h\u0159eben\u016f vysok\u00e9ho tlaku a dal\u0161\u00ed procesy, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inou subsynoptick\u00fd rozm\u011br a t\u00edm i kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 \u010dasov\u00e9 trv\u00e1n\u00ed n\u011bkolika hodin. Tyto procesy zat\u00edm numerick\u00e9 modely v\u011bt\u0161inou neum\u00ed postihnout. Uveden\u00e9 d\u016fvody vedou k tomu, \u017ee v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b v\u011bt\u0161ina meteorologick\u00fdch sv\u011btov\u00fdch center od subjektivn\u00ed front\u00e1ln\u00ed anal\u00fdzy neustupuje.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee synoptick\u00e1 metoda je zalo\u017eena na subjektu &#8211; tedy na synoptikovi, bude beze sporu jej\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost p\u0159\u00edmo z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na kvalit\u011b subjektu. T\u00edm se dost\u00e1v\u00e1m ke zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 lidsk\u00e9 dimenzi probl\u00e9mu. Jako ke ka\u017ed\u00e9 profesi, tak i k p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed mus\u00ed m\u00edt subjekt ur\u010dit\u00e9 vrozen\u00e9 p\u0159ed-poklady, nebudu-li mluvit o pracovitosti a ur\u010dit\u00e9m zap\u00e1len\u00ed pro pr\u00e1ci tohoto typu. Dal\u0161\u00edm d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm faktorem je charakter a \u00farove\u0148 vysoko\u0161kolsk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpravy pro pr\u00e1ci synoptick\u00e9ho meteorologa. Domn\u00edv\u00e1m se, \u017ee vedle modern\u011b pojat\u00e9 synoptick\u00e9 meteorologie by poslucha\u010d, zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fd na synoptickou slu\u017ebu, m\u011bl absolvovat i kurz dynamick\u00e9 klimatologie. V trendu dne\u0161n\u00edho vysoko\u0161kolsk\u00e9ho vzd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 sm\u011b\u0159uje sp\u00ed\u0161 k obecn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu pojet\u00ed, je tento po\u017eadavek st\u011b\u017e\u00ed realizovateln\u00fd, mo\u017en\u00e9 by to bylo snad v r\u00e1mci pracovi\u0161t\u011b. Patrn\u011b st\u00e1le plat\u00ed dlouholet\u00e1 zku\u0161enost, \u017ee vysoko\u0161kol\u00e1k se stane zapracovan\u00fdm synoptikem po t\u0159ech a\u017e p\u011bti letech praxe, podle schopnost\u00ed a kvality \u0161koln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpravy. V tomto obdob\u00ed tvorby osobnosti synoptika si musel v dob\u011b p\u0159ed numerick\u00fdmi modely ka\u017ed\u00fd vytvo\u0159it \u201evlastn\u00ed\u201c metodu, vedouc\u00ed k po\u017eadovan\u00e9mu v\u00fdsledku &#8211; formulaci p\u0159edpov\u011bdi. V\u011bt\u0161inou p\u0159ijal \u0161kolu pracovi\u0161t\u011b, p\u0159\u00edp. odborn\u00e9ho vedouc\u00edho kolektivu. P\u0159ipome\u0148me, \u017ee \u010desk\u00e1 synoptick\u00e1 meteorologie byla co do odborn\u00edk\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed dok\u00e1zali vytvo\u0159it vlastn\u00ed \u0161kolu a t\u00edm i p\u0159\u00edzniv\u011b p\u016fsobit na synoptickou \u201eml\u00e1de\u017e\u201c, nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v dob\u011b Br\u00e1dkov\u011b. Z jeho \u0161koly \u010derpaly nejm\u00e9n\u011b dv\u011b generace prognostik\u016f. Naproti tomu v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b nastala diametr\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bna. Mlad\u00fd synoptik dnes m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159evz\u00edt \u0161irok\u00fd sortiment nab\u00edzen\u00fdch numerick\u00fdch progn\u00f3z a nemus\u00ed m\u00edt sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed n\u00e1zor. Za n\u00edm vlastn\u011b stoj\u00ed \u201eautorita\u201c objektivn\u00ed numerick\u00e9 metody. Nev\u00edm, jak\u00fd pod\u00edl nebezpe\u010d\u00ed, vyvolan\u00e9ho zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdm lidsk\u00fdm faktorem, je skryt v procesu mo\u017en\u00e9ho \u00fatlumu vlivu synoptick\u00e9 metody do budoucna.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Domn\u00edv\u00e1m se, \u017ee ot\u00e1zka odchodu synoptick\u00e9 metody z procesu formulov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed nen\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou t\u00e9to doby. Nen\u00ed to pouze proto, \u017ee numerick\u00e9 modely je\u0161t\u011b nevy\u010derpaly v\u0161echny mo\u017enosti, nap\u0159. p\u0159i parametrizaci proces\u016f interakce na zemsk\u00e9m povrchu, p\u0159i parametrizaci proces\u016f mal\u00fdch m\u011b\u0159\u00edtek, p\u0159i parametrizaci front\u00e1ln\u00edch proces\u016f apod. Synoptik zat\u00edm p\u0159es \u0159adu pokus\u016f o objektivn\u00ed anal\u00fdzu front je nezastupiteln\u00fd v t\u00e9to oblasti. Nezapom\u00ednejme na synoptikovu mo\u017enost slou\u010dit informace klasick\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy s \u00fadaji dru\u017eicov\u00fdch a radioloka\u010dn\u00edch m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V synoptikov\u00fdch rukou le\u017e\u00ed arbitr\u00e1\u017en\u00ed rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed o kvalit\u011b numerick\u00fdch model\u016f vyd\u00e1van\u00fdch r\u016fzn\u00fdmi centr\u00e1lami. A bude tam le\u017eet tak dlouho, pokud se tyto modely budou od sebe odli\u0161ovat. Hled\u00e1n\u00ed slab\u00fdch a siln\u00fdch str\u00e1nek jednotliv\u00fdch numerick\u00fdch model\u016f, to je nov\u00fd obsah pr\u00e1ce v synoptick\u00e9 profesi. Mysl\u00edm t\u00edm studium schopnosti jednotliv\u00fdch typ\u016f numerick\u00fdch model\u016f postihnout p\u0159estavby synoptick\u00fdch situac\u00ed, intenzivn\u00ed vp\u00e1dy studen\u00e9ho vzduchu a dal\u0161\u00ed charakteristick\u00e9 synoptick\u00e9 procesy. Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, hled\u00e1n\u00ed slab\u00fdch \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f numerick\u00fdch model\u016f, kter\u00e9 je t\u0159eba o\u0161et\u0159it. A tento dialog \u201e\u010dlov\u011bk-po\u010d\u00edta\u010d\u201c ukazuje mj. i na zd\u016fvodn\u011bn\u00ed pot\u0159eby zachovat pozice subjektu-synoptika v procesu tvorby p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Tolko z n\u00e1zorov s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00edkov na\u0161ej meteorologickej obce. Treba poznamena\u0165, \u017ee mnoh\u00ed z osloven\u00fdch meteorol\u00f3gov nezareagovali. Istotne kvoli pracovnej zanepr\u00e1zdnenosti. Okrem t\u00fdchto odpoved\u00ed sme dostali aj pr\u00edspevok od RNDr. Miroslava \u0160kodu, CSc., jedn\u00e9ho z popredn\u00fdch \u010desk\u00fdch odborn\u00edkov v oblasti numerick\u00fdch predpovedn\u00fdch met\u00f3d, ktor\u00fd sme nielen pre jeho velk\u00fd rozsah, ale aj obsah, ktor\u00fd zna\u010dne prekro\u010dil povodne koncipovan\u00fa ot\u00e1zku, zaradili ako samostatn\u00fd pr\u00edspevok s n\u00e1zvom Synoptick\u00e1 meteorologie na k\u0159i\u017eovatce.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Anketu nepova\u017eujeme za uzavret\u00fa. Ak m\u00e1te pocit, \u017ee by ste sa k danej t\u00e9me chceli na str\u00e1nkach Meteorologick\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v vyjadri\u0165, mo\u017eeme va\u0161e n\u00e1zory zaradi\u0165 do najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch \u010d\u00edsel tohto \u010dasopisu.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rteright\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Stanislav Racko &#8211; Andr\u00e9 Simon, MZ 2001\/2, ro\u010dn\u00edk 54, str. 33-36<\/em><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>P\u0159elom storo\u010d\u00ed d\u00e1va podn\u011bty na ankety rozneho druhu. S anketami sa mo\u017eeme predov\u0161etk\u00fdm stretn\u00fa\u0165 v \u010dasopisoch bulv\u00e1rnej\u0161ieho razenia a v denn\u00edkoch, ale vyskytn\u00fa\u0165 sa mo\u017eu aj v seri\u00f3znej\u0161\u00edch \u010dasopisoch ur\u010den\u00fdch [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-12322","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/12322","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12322"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/12322\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12326,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/12322\/revisions\/12326"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12322"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}