{"id":12313,"date":"2025-01-11T19:38:22","date_gmt":"2025-01-11T18:38:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/?page_id=12313"},"modified":"2025-01-11T19:39:13","modified_gmt":"2025-01-11T18:39:13","slug":"synopticka-meteorologie-na-krizovatce","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/synopticka-meteorologie-na-krizovatce\/","title":{"rendered":"SYNOPTICK\u00c1 METEOROLOGIE NA K\u0158I\u017dOVATCE"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"12313\" class=\"elementor elementor-12313\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-a4f3cfe elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"a4f3cfe\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-ca1da83\" data-id=\"ca1da83\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a804017 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"a804017\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.17.0 - 08-11-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>1. \u00daVOD<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u0158adu let se diskutuje o osudu synoptiky, o nedostatku nov\u00fdch technick\u00fdch t\u0159\u00eddimenzion\u00e1ln\u00edch pozorovac\u00edch technik, kter\u00e9 byly dosud \u017eivou vodou jej\u00edho rozvoje.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">S numerick\u00fdmi p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edmi metodami se synoptici zcela nes\u017eili. Ale nep\u0159edb\u00edhejme. Byl jsem mizern\u00fdm synoptikem a po dvou letech jsem se za\u010dal pln\u011b v\u011bnovat numerick\u00fdm p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edm metod\u00e1m a zasv\u011btil jim cel\u00fd \u017eivot.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Kulo\u00e1rov\u00e9 diskuse, v\u010detn\u011b poloofici\u00e1ln\u00edch, veden\u00e9 na meteorologick\u00fdch semin\u00e1\u0159\u00edch po\u0159\u00e1dan\u00fdch \u010ceskoslovenskou meteorologickou spole\u010dnost\u00ed m\u011bly z\u00e1sadn\u00ed vadu; konaly se bez spont\u00e1nn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dasti synoptik\u016f. Byly tyto diskuse, bez \u00fa\u010dasti kritizovan\u00fdch, legitimn\u00ed, a mohly n\u011bco vy\u0159e\u0161it? O tom v\u0161em a dal\u0161\u00edch souvislostech pojedn\u00e1vaj\u00ed n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed \u0159\u00e1dky.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>2. HISTORIE<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Neza\u010dneme-li od star\u00fdch \u0158ek\u016f, potom maj\u00ed ob\u011b metody spole\u010dn\u00e9ho jmenovatele, a to norskou pov\u011btrnostn\u00ed slu\u017ebu. V t\u00e9to zemi m\u011bla synoptick\u00e1 metoda ide\u00e1ln\u00ed podm\u00ednky. Z\u00e1padn\u011b od norsk\u00e9ho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed le\u017e\u00ed Atlantsk\u00fd oce\u00e1n. Pos\u00e1dky lod\u00ed pluj\u00edc\u00ed ob\u011bma sm\u011bry systematicky zaznamen\u00e1valy pr\u016fb\u011bh po\u010das\u00ed. Bergeron se sv\u00fdmi spolupracovn\u00edky tyto \u00fadaje pe\u010dliv\u011b vyhodnocoval. P\u0159idr\u017e\u00edme-li se zjednodu\u0161en\u00e9ho pohledu, potom m\u016f\u017eeme \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee identifikovali Islandskou n\u00ed\u017ei a Azorskou v\u00fd\u0161i. Navrhli \u00fachvatn\u00fd syst\u00e9m vz\u00e1jemn\u011b se ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch vzduchov\u00fdch hmot r\u016fzn\u00fdch teplot a jejich sty\u010dnou plochu nazvali front\u00e1ln\u00edm rozhran\u00edm. Z t\u011bchto \u00favah vyplynuly z\u00e1konit\u011b fronty a jejich teorie, v\u010detn\u011b pr\u016fb\u011bhu po\u010das\u00ed na jednotliv\u00fdch typech front. To jsou v\u0161echno notoricky zn\u00e1m\u00e9 skute\u010dnosti. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je to, \u017ee metoda je zalo\u017eena na okam\u017eit\u00e9m p\u0159ehledu po\u010das\u00ed nad rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdmi oblastmi. Jednalo se o origin\u00e1ln\u00ed a nesm\u00edrn\u011b \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nou metodu p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed, dominantn\u011b z\u00e1vislou na rychlosti p\u0159enosu m\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch veli\u010din ze stanic do center zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed. S filigr\u00e1nskou p\u0159esnost\u00ed byly vypracov\u00e1ny \u0161ifrovac\u00ed k\u00f3dy, kter\u00e9 dodnes nesou stopy za\u010d\u00e1tk\u016f telegrafie: jsou \u010dlen\u011bny do blok\u016f po p\u011bti znac\u00edch. V za\u010d\u00e1tc\u00edch byla k dispozici pouze p\u0159\u00edzemn\u00ed pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed a anal\u00fdza pov\u011btrnostn\u00ed mapy byla ryze subjektivn\u00ed z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed, \u010dasto problematickou nad oce\u00e1ny a m\u00e1lo obydlen\u00fdmi oblastmi. O proud\u011bn\u00ed ve vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch hladin\u00e1ch se pouze teoretizovalo na z\u00e1klad\u011b ojedin\u011bl\u00fdch balonov\u00fdch m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed. S n\u00e1stupem Mol\u010danovov\u00fdch radiosond a pokus\u016f Vaisalov\u00fdch se za\u010daly objevovat na map\u00e1ch \u00fadaje z vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch hladin atmosf\u00e9ry. B\u011bhem druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky a hlavn\u011b po jej\u00edm skon\u010den\u00ed nastal nov\u00fd bou\u0159liv\u00fd rozvoj synoptiky na b\u00e1zi trojrozm\u011brn\u00e9ho pozn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed proud\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Pon\u011bkud odli\u0161n\u00fd v\u00fdvoj zaznamenal druh\u00fd fenom\u00e9n. V roce 1905 publikoval Vilhelm Bjerknes sta\u0165, ve kter\u00e9 definoval fyzik\u00e1ln\u011b-matematick\u00e9 mo\u017enosti p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed. Praktick\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed soustav parci\u00e1ln\u00edch diferenci\u00e1ln\u00edch rovnic s fyzik\u00e1ln\u00edmi parametrizacemi na prav\u00fdch stran\u00e1ch rovnic bylo v\u0161ak v t\u00e9 dob\u011b technicky ne\u0159e\u0161iteln\u00e9.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed, ale tragick\u00fd pokus s fat\u00e1ln\u00edmi n\u00e1sledky pro dal\u0161\u00ed t\u0159i dek\u00e1dy provedl v roce 1922 L. F. Richardson. Stovky pracovn\u00edk\u016f s mechanick\u00fdmi kalkul\u00e1tory po \u0159adu m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f po\u010d\u00edtaly jednu jedinou ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161nou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f. Synoptici byli t\u00edmto pokusem povzbuzeni. Do hry vstoupilo jak geostrofick\u00e9 prav\u00edtko, tak studia v\u0161eobecn\u00e9 cirkulace atmosf\u00e9ry atd. Synoptika \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b \u0159e\u0161ila transformaci vzduchov\u00fdch hmot geografick\u00fdm podkladem V prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b 50. let se za\u010daly kreslit polokoulov\u00e9 mapy p\u0159\u00edzemn\u00edho tlakov\u00e9ho pole a hladiny 500 hPa. Vznikla \u0159ada typizac\u00ed, uve\u010fme pouze Multanovsk\u00e9ho, Hesse-Brezovsk\u00e9ho a Scherhagovu \u0161kolu na univerzit\u011b v Hamburku. Objevila se \u0159ada typizac\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed. Zde nelze opomenout pr\u00e1ce J. Br\u00e1dky a Z. Gregora. Nesm\u00edme zapom\u00ednat na vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f dynamick\u00e9 meteorologie v synoptick\u00e9 praxi. Uve\u010fme pouze pro zaj\u00edmavost Sutcliffovu teorii a Defantovu advektivn\u00ed metodu. Do pop\u0159ed\u00ed se dost\u00e1valy pr\u00e1ce C.-G Rossbyho, J. Charneye a \u0159ady dal\u0161\u00edch.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Vlastn\u00ed synoptika v\u0161ak za\u010dala ztr\u00e1cet dech, a to do doby, ne\u017e se objevily prvn\u00ed dru\u017eicov\u00e9 sn\u00edmky obla\u010dn\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f vys\u00edlan\u00fdch dru\u017eicemi s pol\u00e1rn\u00ed drahou letu. Ty potvrdily genialitu norsk\u00e9 \u0161koly. Pokud \u0161lo o prvn\u00ed provozn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky numerick\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed, synoptici se soust\u0159edili na jejich kritiku (v t\u00e9 dob\u011b je\u0161t\u011b opr\u00e1vn\u011bnou).<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Invektivy z jedn\u00e9 i druh\u00e9 strany, vybuchuj\u00edc\u00ed ve v\u0161ech pov\u011btrnostn\u00edch slu\u017eb\u00e1ch, zavinily ob\u011b strany. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b proklamac\u00ed numerik\u016f o\u010dek\u00e1vali synoptici pr\u00e1vem v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdsledky p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed termobarick\u00fdch pol\u00ed. Nebrali ohled na objektivn\u00ed pot\u00ed\u017ee, s kter\u00fdmi museli dynami\u010dt\u00ed meteorologov\u00e9 bojovat. V\u00fdkonnost po\u010d\u00edta\u010d\u016f prudce rostla a p\u0159\u00edprava vstupn\u00edch dat cel\u00fd proces zdr\u017eovala. Hledaly se metody automatick\u00e9ho zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed dat, objektivn\u00ed anal\u00fdzy apod. Dle m\u00e9ho soudu se numeri\u010dt\u00ed meteorologov\u00e9 dopou\u0161t\u011bli dvou z\u00e1sadn\u00edch chyb:<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">I. Nekriticky obhajovali sv\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky a publikovali pouze kvalitn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi (omluvou nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt snaha o zd\u016fvodn\u011bn\u00ed obrovsk\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f na v\u00fdpo\u010dty).<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">II. Mal\u00e1 ochota vysv\u011btlovat meteorolog\u016fm ve slu\u017eb\u011b konstrukci, a tud\u00ed\u017e skute\u010dn\u00e9 mo\u017enosti atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fdch model\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b, a to bych r\u00e1d zd\u016fraznil, mal\u00e9 ochoty spolupracovat p\u0159i vyhodnocov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Synoptici se uch\u00fdlili k d\u016fsledn\u00e9 interpretaci sn\u00edmk\u016f obla\u010dnosti. Sn\u00edmky v\u0161ech pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch spektr\u00e1ln\u00edch p\u00e1sem p\u0159estaly b\u00fdt podp\u016frnou informac\u00ed, n\u00fdbr\u017e informac\u00ed dominantn\u00ed p\u0159i anal\u00fdze pov\u011btrnostn\u00ed mapy. N\u00e1zorn\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt v \u010cHM\u00da stanovov\u00e1n\u00ed okam\u017eiku p\u0159echodu front p\u0159es Prahu. Tato velmi v\u00fdznamn\u00e1, nicm\u00e9n\u011b v\u0161ak podp\u016frn\u00e1 informa\u010dn\u00ed technika, se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 vyvinula v samostatn\u00fd obor.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Dru\u017eicov\u00e9 informace vzbudily z\u00e1jem i meteorolog\u016f-teoretik\u016f, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b jejich spir\u00e1lovit\u00fd charakter. Zd\u00e1lo se mi, \u017ee a\u017e do objevu prvn\u00edho sn\u00edmku pochybovali o z\u00e1kladech norsk\u00e9 \u0161koly. Jin\u00e1 skupina, podstatn\u011b v\u0161ak v\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a hlavn\u011b pragmati\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, se sna\u017eila p\u0159etransformovat data z dru\u017eic do profil\u016f teplotn\u00edho zvrstven\u00ed, tj. odvozovat geopotenci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fd\u0161ky standardn\u00edch izobarick\u00fdch hladin, teplot, vlhkost\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00edch charakteristik a dopl\u0148ovat tak chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed. V\u00fdsledky byly v\u010dlen\u011bny do \u0159ady nov\u00fdch k\u00f3d\u016f (SIRS, SATEM, SATOB, SARAD). V\u00fdsledky nejsou dosud zcela p\u0159esn\u00e9, ale poda\u0159ilo se zacelit pr\u00e1zdnotu po zru\u0161en\u00fdch st\u00e1l\u00fdch meteorologick\u00fdch lod\u00edch v obou oce\u00e1nech a up\u0159esnit tak objektivn\u00ed anal\u00fdzu.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 stejn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj a uplatn\u011bn\u00ed zaznamenala radioloka\u010dn\u00ed technika. Kombinace obou uveden\u00fdch technick\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f v\u00fdrazn\u011b zlep\u0161ila v\u00fdstra\u017enou pov\u011btrnostn\u00ed slu\u017ebu. Tolik k nov\u00fdm technik\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 nerozv\u00edjela synoptika, n\u00fdbr\u017e je toliko exploatovala. P\u0159\u00edklady slou\u017e\u00ed k tomu, abychom mohli p\u0159ej\u00edt k sou\u010dasnosti.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>3. SOU\u010cASNOST<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Synoptici tvo\u0159\u00ed samostatnou skupinu pracovn\u00edk\u016f, p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edch po\u010das\u00ed na z\u00e1klad\u011b dokument\u016f poskytovan\u00fdm jim druh\u00fdmi pracovi\u0161ti. Do p\u0159\u00edpravy p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed vkl\u00e1daj\u00ed svoji invenci a zku\u0161enosti. \u201eServisn\u00ed\u201c pracovn\u00edci ovl\u00e1daj\u00ed naopak modern\u00ed \u0161k\u00e1lu techniky a pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u011b z\u00edsk\u00e1van\u00e9 informace rozv\u00edjej\u00ed. \u00daloha synoptik\u016f je v tomto sm\u011bru zcela pasivn\u00ed. Tuto svoji roli zd\u016fvod\u0148uj\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee jsou zahlceni povinnostmi vyd\u00e1vat pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u011b p\u0159edpov\u011bdi a soustavn\u011b poskytovat informace o pr\u016fb\u011bhu po\u010das\u00ed zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b v krizov\u00fdch situac\u00edch. Tyto informace, bohu\u017eel, nep\u0159ed\u00e1vaj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edmo m\u00e9di\u00edm \u010di instituc\u00edm, ale zprost\u0159edkovatelsk\u00fdm agentur\u00e1m maj\u00edc\u00edm licenci p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00fdch meteorologick\u00fdch \u00fastav\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b \u010cHM\u00da. Na v\u00fdzkumu a v\u00fdvoji metodik, kter\u00e9 pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed, se nepod\u00edlej\u00ed, maxim\u00e1ln\u011b se n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed z nich sna\u017e\u00ed o sofistikovan\u00e9 vyhodnocov\u00e1n\u00ed jejich \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nosti. P\u0159es neust\u00e1lou kritiku kvality numerick\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed termobarick\u00fdch pol\u00ed, teploty, sr\u00e1\u017eek, v\u011btru atd. jim nebr\u00e1n\u00ed denn\u011b ji pou\u017e\u00edvat. Jsem p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee v\u00fdvoj budouc\u00edho termobarick\u00e9ho pole si bez numerick\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed nedok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed p\u0159edstavit v\u016fbec. V \u010dem je tedy probl\u00e9m?<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Do prognostick\u00fdch center p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed denn\u011b p\u011bt a\u017e \u0161est typ\u016f p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed z r\u016fzn\u00fdch center. Jedn\u00e1 se o glob\u00e1ln\u00ed a region\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi s vysok\u00fdm horizont\u00e1ln\u00edm a vertik\u00e1ln\u00edm rozli\u0161en\u00edm a maxim\u00e1ln\u00edm po\u010dtem fyzik\u00e1ln\u00edch parametrizac\u00ed, odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00fd stupe\u0148 pozn\u00e1n\u00ed. I kdy\u017e maj\u00ed modely obecn\u011b shodnou konstrukci, li\u0161\u00edc\u00ed se pouze integra\u010dn\u00ed technikou a pou\u017eitou orografi\u00ed a u objektivn\u00edch anal\u00fdz volbou p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho pole, doch\u00e1z\u00ed n\u011bkdy k v\u00fdrazn\u00fdm rozd\u00edl\u016fm ve vlastn\u00edch v\u00fdstupech. T\u00edm je synoptik vystaven dilematu, kter\u00fd model up\u0159ednostnit na \u00fakor ostatn\u00edch. Proto\u017ee nezn\u00e1 konstrukci \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9ho modelu (star\u0161\u00ed tuto problematiku nestudovali nebo se j\u00ed nev\u011bnovali), je odk\u00e1z\u00e1n stejn\u011b jako v minulosti (za dob maxim\u00e1ln\u00edho rozkv\u011btu synoptiky) na subjektivn\u00ed posouzen\u00ed, na svoji pam\u011b\u0165 (kter\u00e1 je v\u011bt\u0161inou velmi vyt\u0159\u00edben\u00e1) a elimina\u010dn\u00ed schopnost vybrat model s optim\u00e1ln\u00edm v\u00fdvojem. Do takto zvolen\u00e9ho modelu implementuje fronty umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed mu zn\u00e1m\u00fdmi mechanismy definovat po\u010das\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Kter\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed postupy z plej\u00e1dy nab\u00edzen\u00fdch je synoptik schopen vyu\u017e\u00edvat? Tvrd\u00edm &#8211; \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9. Synoptik br\u00e1n\u00edc\u00ed se t\u00edm, \u017ee nem\u00e1 \u010das, nen\u00ed zcela up\u0159\u00edmn\u00fd, proto\u017ee oproti p\u0159edchoz\u00edm let\u016fm je osvobozen od mnoha rutinn\u00edch postup\u016f. M\u00e1 k dispozici jak animace termobarick\u00fdch pol\u00ed, tak animace pr\u016fb\u011bhu minul\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje obla\u010dn\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f a jejich transformac\u00ed do sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch p\u00e1s\u016f stanoven\u00fdch radarov\u00fdmi m\u011b\u0159en\u00edmi. Nav\u00edc m\u00e1 k dispozici minim\u00e1ln\u011b stovku odvozen\u00fdch veli\u010din a parametr\u016f, po\u010d\u00ednaje divergenc\u00ed, vorticitou, potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed vorticitou, vertik\u00e1ln\u00edch rychlost\u00ed, a kon\u010de Q-vektory. M\u016f\u017ee disponovat prognostick\u00fdmi vertik\u00e1ln\u00edmi profily termobarick\u00fdch veli\u010din z libovoln\u011b zvolen\u00fdch m\u00edst v\u010detn\u011b meteogram\u016f. Jsem p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina t\u011bchto veli\u010din tvo\u0159\u00ed pouze meteorologick\u00fd \u0161um. Op\u011bt se v\u0161ak nelze divit, proto\u017ee star\u0161\u00ed synoptik se nikdy s t\u011bmito veli\u010dinami a hlavn\u011b s jejich interpretac\u00ed nesetkal, a tud\u00ed\u017e ji nem\u016f\u017ee zodpov\u011bdn\u011b pou\u017e\u00edvat (jde o velk\u00fd h\u0159\u00edch vysok\u00fdch \u0161kol).<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed ob\u010das t\u011bmito antagonistick\u00fdmi postoji obou stran trp\u00ed. V \u010cHM\u00da, kde s\u00eddl\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed organizace LACE a centrum je vybaveno v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u011b kvalitn\u00edm a rychl\u00fdm superpo\u010d\u00edta\u010dem, je tento probl\u00e9m obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 bolestn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>4. BUDOUCNOST<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V \u00favodu jsem zm\u00ednil spole\u010dn\u00fd jmenovatel obou z\u00e1kladn\u00edch sm\u011br\u016f p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed. Jsem p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 po jednom stolet\u00ed je \u017e\u00e1douc\u00ed, aby se oba sm\u011bry vr\u00e1tily k p\u016fvodn\u00edm ide\u00e1m, vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00edce p\u0159i tom v\u0161ech sou\u010dasn\u00fdch i budouc\u00edch technick\u00fdch vymo\u017eenost\u00ed k jedin\u00e9mu c\u00edli: zkvalitnit jak kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9, tak, a to p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm, st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9, maxim\u00e1ln\u011b v\u0161ak desetidenn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed se zlep\u0161\u00ed intenzivn\u00edm vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00edm nov\u00fdch objektivn\u00edch fyzik\u00e1ln\u011b-matematick\u00fdch metod. Klasick\u00e1 synoptika se bude postupn\u011b transformovat na dynamickou meteorologii.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Numeri\u010dt\u00ed meteorologov\u00e9, \u010di p\u0159esn\u011bji \u0159e\u010deno fyzikov\u00e9, se mus\u00ed urychlen\u011b v\u011bnovat nehydrostatick\u00fdm model\u016fm na b\u00e1zi Businesquov\u00fdch rovnic a nab\u00eddnout prvn\u00ed praktick\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky teorie chaosu. Spole\u010dn\u00fdmi silami se mus\u00ed v\u011bnovat konfrontaci v\u00fdsledk\u016f model\u016f s m\u011b\u0159en\u00fdmi hodnotami jednotliv\u00fdch prvk\u016f na meteorologick\u00fdch stanic\u00edch a observato\u0159\u00edch. Nem\u00e1m na mysli, jak to je dnes b\u011b\u017en\u00e9, popis vyhotoven\u00fdch tabulek a elegantn\u00edch graf\u016f bez fyzik\u00e1ln\u00ed invence. Stejn\u011b tak nepochybuji, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e1 generace meteorolog\u016f bude i nad\u00e1le pou\u017e\u00edvat rutinn\u00ed metody.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Rychlost zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed nov\u00e9ho pojet\u00ed modelov\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed bude z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na tom, jak tuto nab\u00eddku zvl\u00e1dnou jednotliv\u00e9 katedry vysok\u00fdch \u0161kol. Tvorba nov\u00fdch modern\u00edch u\u010debn\u00edch pl\u00e1n\u016f mus\u00ed vych\u00e1zet nejen z profes\u00ed, z\u00e1jm\u016f a orientace pedagog\u016f, ale z konsenzu jak s v\u011bdeck\u00fdmi, tak provozn\u00edmi institucemi v\u0161ech typ\u016f. Mus\u00ed doj\u00edt k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 specializaci kateder a \u0161kol. Net\u00fdk\u00e1 se to pochopiteln\u011b jen meteorologie, ale i klimatologie. Tento obor se v posledn\u00edch letech diferencuje hrub\u011b \u0159e\u010deno na klasickou klimatologii se statistikou a klimatologii modeluj\u00edc\u00ed klima s c\u00edlem p\u0159edpov\u011bdi klimatick\u00fdch zm\u011bn, vych\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159i tom z teorie klasick\u00fdch model\u016f. Zat\u00edm interpretace jejich nedokonal\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f stra\u0161\u00ed obyvatelstvo z n\u00e1sledk\u016f r\u016fstu sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>5. Z\u00c1V\u011aR<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Po tomto velmi hrub\u00e9m rozboru si polo\u017eme ot\u00e1zku, jak\u00e9 jsou mo\u017enosti dal\u0161\u00edho rozvoje dosud p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed synoptick\u00e9 metody p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed. Jsem p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9. Zelenou budou m\u00edt v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch pades\u00e1ti letech st\u00e1le propracovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed modely na nehydrostatick\u00e9 b\u00e1zi. Fronty tvo\u0159\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed berli\u010dky synoptik\u016f na cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b budou nahrazeny vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fdmi a po\u010d\u00edta\u010dem takt\u00e9\u017e formulovan\u00fdmi p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010fmi.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Meteorologov\u00e9 &#8211; v prvn\u00ed f\u00e1zi p\u0159e\u0161kolen\u00ed synoptici &#8211; budou tyto objektivn\u00ed (na nich nez\u00e1visl\u00e9) postupy kontrolovat. Po v\u011bt\u0161inu \u010dasu budou studovat zp\u011btn\u00e9 vazby mezi v\u00fdsledky model\u016f a vlastn\u00edm pr\u016fb\u011bhem po\u010das\u00ed. Pro tento progresivn\u00ed a nezadr\u017eiteln\u00fd v\u00fdvoj bude nutn\u00e9 splnit dv\u011b podm\u00ednky:<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">I. Bez ohledu na optimalizaci a nedostatek finan\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f podstatn\u011b zahustit s\u00ed\u0165 profesion\u00e1ln\u00edch meteorologick\u00fdch stanic a observato\u0159\u00ed m\u011b\u0159\u00edc\u00edch komplexn\u00ed \u0161k\u00e1lu atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fdch jev\u016f.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">II. Radik\u00e1ln\u011b zm\u011bnit u\u010debn\u00ed osnovy na vysok\u00fdch \u0161kol\u00e1ch. Pedagogov\u00e9 ji\u017e \u0159adu let dob\u0159e v\u011bd\u00ed \u010di aspo\u0148 tu\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00fduku je nutn\u00e9 transformovat, ale dosud se k tomu neodhodlali. St\u00e1le se intenzivn\u011b u\u010d\u00ed klasick\u00e1 synoptika a des\u00edtky hodin se v\u011bnuj\u00ed anal\u00fdze pov\u011btrnostn\u00ed mapy. Dynamick\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed metody mus\u00ed b\u00fdt roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159eny a dopln\u011bny o aplika\u010dn\u00ed metody z nich plynouc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Tento proces nebude skokov\u00fd, bude postupn\u011b nab\u00edhat, p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m jeho ukon\u010den\u00ed nejpozd\u011bji za deset let. V tomto obdob\u00ed se mus\u00ed synopti\u010dt\u00ed meteorologov\u00e9 intenzivn\u011b v\u011bnovat studiu speci\u00e1ln\u00edch pov\u011btrnostn\u00edch situac\u00ed zat\u00edm \u0161patn\u011b posti\u017een\u00fdch modely. Oba t\u00e1bory mus\u00ed spolupracovat v z\u00e1jmu kvalitn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed s pln\u00fdm v\u011bdom\u00edm, \u017ee tato fyzik\u00e1ln\u00ed discipl\u00edna m\u00e1 oproti ostatn\u00edm obor\u016fm fyziky z\u00e1sadn\u00ed hendikep &#8211; nikdy nebudeme moci opakovat \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd pokus a tak si ov\u011b\u0159ovat sv\u00e9 \u00favahy.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rteright\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Miroslav \u0160koda, MZ 2001\/2, ro\u010dn\u00edk 54, str. 37-38<\/em><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>1. \u00daVOD \u0158adu let se diskutuje o osudu synoptiky, o nedostatku nov\u00fdch technick\u00fdch t\u0159\u00eddimenzion\u00e1ln\u00edch pozorovac\u00edch technik, kter\u00e9 byly dosud \u017eivou vodou jej\u00edho rozvoje. S numerick\u00fdmi p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edmi metodami se synoptici zcela [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-12313","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/12313","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12313"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/12313\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12317,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/12313\/revisions\/12317"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12313"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}