{"id":11923,"date":"2025-01-05T14:02:13","date_gmt":"2025-01-05T13:02:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/?page_id=11923"},"modified":"2025-01-05T14:05:28","modified_gmt":"2025-01-05T13:05:28","slug":"aladin-a-lace-mezinarodni-spoluprace-chmu-v-numericke-predpovedi-pocasi","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/aladin-a-lace-mezinarodni-spoluprace-chmu-v-numericke-predpovedi-pocasi\/","title":{"rendered":"ALADIN A LACE &#8211; MEZIN\u00c1RODN\u00cd SPOLUPR\u00c1CE \u010cHM\u00da V NUMERICK\u00c9 P\u0158EDPOV\u011aDI PO\u010cAS\u00cd"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"11923\" class=\"elementor elementor-11923\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-a0f0aa2 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"a0f0aa2\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-525a114\" data-id=\"525a114\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6f77e09 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6f77e09\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.17.0 - 08-11-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<div class=\"content clearfix\"><div class=\"field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden\"><div class=\"field-items\"><div class=\"field-item even\"><div><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Numerick\u00e1 p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed je jednou z modern\u00edch a z\u00e1rove\u0148 jednou z nejn\u00e1ro\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch meteorologick\u00fdch discipl\u00edn, kter\u00e1 prod\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1 v posledn\u00edch desetilet\u00edch bou\u0159liv\u00fd v\u00fdvoj. Obrovsk\u00fd skok v technologii modelov\u00e1n\u00ed atmosf\u00e9ry byl a je mo\u017en\u00fd d\u00edky st\u00e1le v\u00fdkonn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm po\u010d\u00edta\u010d\u016fm, na kte\u00adr\u00fdch je numerick\u00e1 p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f \u0159e\u0161ena v prostorov\u011b jemn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku a v daleko komplexn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm matematicko-fyzik\u00e1ln\u00edm kontextu. Produkty p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edch model\u016f dnes tvo\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1\u00adkladn\u00ed materi\u00e1l, s jeho\u017e pomoc\u00ed je vyhotoveno a zaji\u0161t\u011bno mnoho fin\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u00fdstup\u016f a \u00faloh, kter\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e1 slu\u017e\u00adba poskytuje jak ve\u0159ejnosti, tak priv\u00e1tn\u00edm z\u00e1kazn\u00edk\u016fm.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed modely integrovan\u00e9 a\u017e na n\u011bkolik dn\u00ed pro po\u00adskytnut\u00ed st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi, jsou provozov\u00e1ny pouze v Region\u00e1ln\u00edch meteorologick\u00fdch centrech \u010di velk\u00fdch po\u00adv\u011btrnostn\u00edch slu\u017eb\u00e1ch, jak\u00fdmi jsou nap\u0159. Evropsk\u00e9 centrum pro st\u0159edn\u011bdobou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed se s\u00eddlem v Readingu (ECMWF), Meteorologick\u00e1 slu\u017eba Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nie se s\u00eddlem v Bracknellu, Meteorologick\u00e1 slu\u017eba Francie p\u0159enesen\u00e1 z Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ee do Toulouse, \u010di Pov\u011btrnostn\u00ed slu\u017eba Spolkov\u00e9 re\u00adpubliky N\u011bmecko se s\u00eddlem v Offenbachu. Naproti tomu v\u011bt\u0161ina n\u00e1rodn\u00edch meteorologick\u00fdch slu\u017eeb, a to i men\u0161\u00edch zem\u00ed, po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 operativn\u011b tzv. modely na omezen\u00e9 oblasti -LAM (Limited Area Model), kter\u00e9 pracuj\u00ed s jemn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi roz\u00adli\u0161en\u00edmi ne\u017e modely glob\u00e1ln\u00ed, a kter\u00e9 jsou orientov\u00e1ny na kr\u00e1tkodobou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f do 48 hodin. Tyto modely by m\u011bly slou\u017eit p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm p\u0159i tvorb\u011b regionalizovan\u00fdch kr\u00e1tkodo\u00adb\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed, kde produkty glob\u00e1ln\u00edch model\u016f jsou ji\u017e p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 hrub\u00e9. Maj\u00ed takt\u00e9\u017e uplatn\u011bn\u00ed v dal\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1vazn\u00fdch obo\u00adrech (\u010distota ovzdu\u0161\u00ed, meteorologick\u00e9 zabezpe\u010den\u00ed jadern\u00fdch hav\u00e1ri\u00ed, hydroprogn\u00f3za apod.).<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V na\u0161\u00ed slu\u017eb\u011b je v denn\u00edm provozu model na omezen\u00e9 oblasti, a to od dubna 1988. P\u0159esto, \u017ee svou technologi\u00ed numerick\u00e9 a dynamick\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti odpov\u00edd\u00e1 evropsk\u00e9 \u00farovni (je pln\u011b srovnateln\u00fd s modelem EVROPA Spolkov\u00e9 republiky N\u011bmecko nebo PERIDOT francouzsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby), nev\u00fdkonn\u00e1 v\u00fdpo\u010detn\u00ed technika n\u00e1m nedovolovala jemn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed krok s\u00edt\u011b ne\u017e 330 km a 12 vertik\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin. I nyn\u00ed, kdy na nov\u00fdch pracovn\u00edch stanic\u00edch SUN m\u016f\u017eeme p\u0159ej\u00edt na rozli\u0161en\u00ed kolem 140 km v operativn\u00edm provozu, budou v\u00fdsledky LAM \u010cHM\u00da odr\u00e1\u017eet v\u00fdvoj synoptick\u00e9ho m\u011b\u0159\u00edtka, a pro pr\u00e1ci pro\u00adgn\u00f3zn\u00edho meteorologa budou m\u00edt stejn\u00fd v\u00fdznam jako pro\u00addukty glob\u00e1ln\u00edch model\u016f, kter\u00e9 dost\u00e1v\u00e1me v hrub\u00e9m roz\u00adli\u0161en\u00ed po link\u00e1ch glob\u00e1ln\u00edho telekomunika\u010dn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu Sv\u011btov\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e9 organizace. Dal\u0161\u00ed pravdou je, \u017ee v mal\u00e9m t\u00fdmu pracovn\u00edk\u016f nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 postihnout \u0161irokou \u0161k\u00e1lu \u00faloh sou\u010dasn\u00e9 numerick\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi. Chyb\u00ed n\u00e1m bo\u00adhat\u0161\u00ed parametrizace fyzik\u00e1ln\u00edch proces\u016f v modelu, odpov\u00ed\u00addaj\u00edc\u00ed objektivn\u00ed numerick\u00e1 anal\u00fdza, rozvinut\u00e9 statistick\u00e9 a verifika\u010dn\u00ed metody a mnoho dal\u0161\u00edch operativn\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f je \u0159e\u0161eno na \u00farovni nutn\u00e9ho minima. P\u0159es v\u0161echna praktick\u00e1 omezen\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 LAM \u010cHM\u00da nesm\u00edrn\u011b cenn\u00fdm pro p\u0159\u00ed\u00adpravu odborn\u00edk\u016f v modelov\u00e1n\u00ed a st\u00e1le velmi u\u017eite\u010dn\u00fdm pro \u0159adu speci\u00e1ln\u00edch \u00faloh. Mezi nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pat\u0159\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010dty tra\u00adjektori\u00ed vzduchov\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1stic vystupuj\u00edc\u00edch z lokalit ja\u00addern\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Pokud v\u0161ak chceme vyhov\u011bt nutn\u011b rostouc\u00edm n\u00e1rok\u016fm na kvalitu model\u016f, na omezen\u00e9 oblasti s hustou s\u00edt\u00ed uzlov\u00fdch bod\u016f, m\u00e1me jedinou mo\u017enost &#8211; spolupracovat s ostatn\u00edmi evropsk\u00fdmi meteorologick\u00fdmi slu\u017ebami a zajistit si tak nejen p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed materi\u00e1ly pro denn\u00ed provoz slu\u017eby, ale i lep\u0161\u00ed osvojen\u00ed modern\u00edch technologi\u00ed a \u201eknow-how&#8221;.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>Projekt ALADIN<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Prvn\u00ed mo\u017enost mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce v oboru nume\u00adrick\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed byla nab\u00eddka francouzsk\u00e9 meteorolo\u00adgick\u00e9 slu\u017eby &#8211; M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France &#8211; z po\u010d\u00e1tku roku 1991 (po n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bv\u011b \u0159editele Leboau). Jednalo se o v\u00fdvoj modern\u00edho LAM modelu ur\u010den\u00e9ho pro operativn\u00ed kr\u00e1tkodobou p\u0159edpo\u00adv\u011b\u010f mezo-synoptick\u00e9ho m\u011b\u0159\u00edtka. \u0158editel francouzsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il toto pozv\u00e1n\u00ed na meteorologick\u00e9 slu\u017eby zem\u00ed st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy (Bulharsko, Ma\u010farsko, Polsko, Ru\u00admunsko a Slovensko). Od sam\u00e9ho po\u010d\u00e1tku se na projektu pod\u00edlely slu\u017eby \u010desk\u00e1, ma\u010farsk\u00e1 a rumunsk\u00e1, kter\u00e9 se spolu s francouzskou slu\u017ebou staly hlavn\u00edmi a nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi partnery.<\/span><\/p><\/div><div><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Design spole\u010dn\u00e9ho projektu spo\u010d\u00edval ve v\u00fdvoji \u201eLimited Area Version&#8221; glob\u00e1ln\u00edho numerick\u00e9ho prognostick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu ARPEGE\/EFS. Zprvu jsme tedy pracovn\u011b hovo\u0159ili o modelu LAM\/ARPEGE. Vysv\u011btl\u00edm zkratky pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 v souvislosti s LAM\/ARPEGE.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">ARPEGE je p\u016fvodn\u00ed dosti rozs\u00e1hl\u00fd projekt, realizovan\u00fd v \u00fazk\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ci M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France a ECMWF. Nosn\u00e1 idea je skryta p\u0159\u00edmo v n\u00e1zvu: Action Recherche Petite Echelle GTande Echelle &#8211; ARPEGE je glob\u00e1ln\u00edm modelem s pro\u00adm\u011bnlivou d\u00e9lkou kroku s\u00edt\u011b. Zkratka IFS, pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e1 v ECMWF, znamen\u00e1 Integrated Forecasting System a vy\u00adjad\u0159uje druh\u00fd hlavn\u00ed rys modelu: ARPEGE nen\u00ed pouze \u201eoby\u00ad\u010dejn\u00fdm&#8221; p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edm modelem, ale cel\u00fdm syst\u00e9mem ur\u010de\u00adn\u00fdm pro \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed \u010detn\u00fdch \u00faloh v oblasti numerick\u00fdch p\u0159edpo\u00adv\u011bdn\u00edch metod (NPM). Jin\u00fdmi slovy tent\u00fd\u017e k\u00f3d je pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n pro numerickou anal\u00fdzu, asimilaci dat, t\u0159\u00eddimenzion\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed model, simula\u010dn\u00ed modely nap\u0159. m\u011blk\u00e9 vody, varia\u010dn\u00ed \u00falohy a zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f tzv. post-processing.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Verze ARPEGE pro omezenou oblast dostala zakr\u00e1tko sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed jm\u00e9no ALADIN: Aire Limit\u00e9e Adaptation dy-namique D\u00e9veloppement INternational. Hlavn\u00ed v\u00fdvojov\u00e1 f\u00e1ze modelu ALADIN zapo\u010dala v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 1991 v z\u00e1kladn\u00edm t\u00fdmu \u010dty\u0159 st\u00e1\u017eist\u016f a t\u0159ech pracovn\u00edk\u016f M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France. Pr\u00e1ce na projektu \u0159\u00eddil Alain Joly. V brzk\u00e9 dob\u011b se mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed t\u00fdm rozrostl o dal\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1\u017eisty a p\u0159ipojila se tak\u00e9 rakousk\u00e1 slu\u017eba.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">B\u011bhem t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 rekordn\u00ed doby \u010dtrn\u00e1cti m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f v\u00fdvoje jsme dos\u00e1hli prvn\u00edho d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9ho c\u00edle: model ALADIN byl na sv\u011bt\u011b a my jsme za\u010dali vyhodnocovat jeho prvn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi a d\u00e1le jej ladit. Pod\u00edvejme se nyn\u00ed, jak\u00e9 hlavn\u00ed charakte\u00adristiky m\u00e1 ALADIN.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Definice oblasti integrace a hustota rozli\u0161en\u00ed, tj. d\u00e9lka horizont\u00e1ln\u00edho kroku s\u00edt\u011b, se daj\u00ed volit tak, aby vyhovovaly pot\u0159eb\u00e1m jednotliv\u00fdch slu\u017eeb. Tato podm\u00ednka je zaru\u010dena velmi obecn\u00fdm programov\u00fdm prost\u0159ed\u00edm. ALADIN m\u016f\u017ee\u00adme integrovat s \u00fapln\u011b stejnou geometri\u00ed, tj. pro stejnou geo\u00adgrafickou oblast jako m\u00e1 model \u010cHMU, nebo jako PERI-DOT, \u010di v oblastech n\u011bmeck\u00fdch model\u016f EVROPA, resp. DEUTSCHLAND (zauj\u00edmaj\u00edc\u00ed oblast N\u011bmecka a \u0160v\u00fd\u00adcarska). V\u00fdb\u011br mapov\u00e9 projekce se d\u00e1 pod\u0159\u00eddit oblasti. Tak nap\u0159\u00edklad ve vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch zem\u011bpisn\u00fdch \u0161\u00ed\u0159k\u00e1ch je logick\u00e9 si vy\u00adbrat pol\u00e1rn\u00ed stereografickou projekci mapy, ve st\u0159edn\u00edch \u0161\u00ed\u0159k\u00e1ch mapu Lambertovy projekce a pro subtropy a rovn\u00ed\u00adkov\u00e9 oblasti mapu v\u00e1lcov\u00e9 Merkatorovy projekce. Anebo, pro jin\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed experimenty, lze kteroukoliv mapu rotovat tak, abychom dostali polohu rovn\u00edku a p\u00f3l\u016f dle na\u0161ich po\u00adt\u0159eb. Volbu horizont\u00e1ln\u00edho kroku s\u00edt\u011b modelu m\u016f\u017eeme p\u0159i\u00adzp\u016fsobit tak, aby ladila s celkovou velikost\u00ed oblasti a po\u00ad\u017eadavky na numerickou simulaci.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">D\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm rysem je spektr\u00e1ln\u00ed zobrazen\u00ed prognostick\u00fdch prom\u011bnn\u00fdch v horizont\u00e1ln\u00edch ploch\u00e1ch. Zat\u00edm existuj\u00ed pouze dva spektr\u00e1ln\u00ed modely na omezen\u00e9 oblasti pou\u017eiteln\u00e9 v ope\u00adrativn\u00ed praxi &#8211; japonsk\u00fd model a model ALADIN. V\u0161echny dal\u0161\u00ed operativn\u00ed modely v\u010detn\u011b modelu \u010cHMU jsou na b\u00e1zi kone\u010dn\u00fdch diferenc\u00ed. V\u00fdjimku tvo\u0159\u00ed kanadsk\u00fd t\u00fdm, kter\u00fd se orientuje na metodu kone\u010dn\u00fdch prvk\u016f. Tato skute\u010dnost navozuje \u0159adu dotaz\u016f, zda je spektr\u00e1ln\u00ed technika vhodn\u00e1 pro modely s hustou s\u00edt\u00ed uzlov\u00fdch bod\u016f po\u010d\u00edtan\u00fdch na ome\u00adzen\u00e9 oblasti. Tyto dotazy a pochybnosti vypl\u00fdvaj\u00ed z toho, \u017ee \u0159ada pracovn\u00edk\u016f m\u00e1 zat\u00edm s touto technikou mal\u00e9 zku\u00ad\u0161enosti. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b prvn\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed s modelem ALADIN po\u010d\u00edtan\u00fdch pro v\u00fdrazn\u011b baroklinn\u00ed situace se uka\u00adzuje, \u017ee spektr\u00e1ln\u00ed metoda je sp\u00ed\u0161e p\u0159\u00ednosem a mohu-li po\u00adrovnat, m\u00e1 mnohem lep\u0161\u00ed vlastnosti ne\u017e metoda kone\u010dn\u00fdch diferenc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Vertik\u00e1ln\u00ed sou\u0159adnice je stejn\u00e1 jako u model\u016f ARPEGE \u010di ECMWF &#8211; hybridn\u00ed sou\u0159adnice r\\, kop\u00edruj\u00edc\u00ed orografii ve spodn\u00edch hladin\u00e1ch modelu a plynule p\u0159ech\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed v horn\u00ed atmosf\u00e9\u0159e do p-syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Fyzik\u00e1ln\u00ed parametrizace maj\u00ed stejnou \u0161k\u00e1lu jako model ARPEGE, nav\u00edc jsou \u0159e\u0161eny tak, aby se dal cel\u00fd soubor vym\u011bnit, nap\u0159. s fyzik\u00e1ln\u00edmi parametrizacemi skandin\u00e1vsk\u00e9\u00adho modelu ozna\u010dovan\u00e9ho zkratkou HIRLAM.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Vr\u00e1t\u00edm se nyn\u00ed ke kalend\u00e1\u0159i projektu a jeho financov\u00e1n\u00ed. Od \u0159\u00edjna 1992 do konce \u00fanora 1993 se pracovn\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed t\u00fdm soust\u0159edil na testov\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00e9ho modelu v\u010detn\u011b metod v n\u011bm pou\u017eit\u00fdch:<\/span><\/p><ul><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">inicializace digit\u00e1ln\u00edm filtrem,<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">studium vlastnost\u00ed p\u0159enosu \u010dasov\u00fdch zm\u011bn prom\u011bnn\u00fdch v okrajov\u00e9 oblasti glob\u00e1ln\u00edho modelu do modelu s hus\u00adtou s\u00edt\u00ed uzlov\u00fdch bod\u016f po\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9ho na omezen\u00e9 oblasti. Tato procedura se naz\u00fdv\u00e1 coupling,<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">biperiodizace pol\u00ed, tj. roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed oblasti LAM modelu o ur\u010ditou okrajovou z\u00f3nu uzlov\u00fdch bod\u016f, ve kter\u00e9 se prognostick\u00e9 prom\u011bnn\u00e9 dodefinov\u00e1vaj\u00ed tak, aby na t\u00e9to roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9 oblasti byly prognostick\u00e9 prom\u011bnn\u00e9 periodick\u00e9 ve sm\u011bru osy x a y v horizont\u00e1ln\u00ed rovin\u011b,<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">verifika\u010dn\u00ed programy,<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">spou\u0161t\u011bc\u00ed shell, tj. soustava program\u016f, kter\u00e9 startuj\u00ed v\u00fd\u00adpo\u010det modelu p\u0159i experiment\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u00fdpo\u010dtech \u010di kvazi-operativn\u00edm provozu.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Na podzim roku 1992 jsme z\u00edskali dal\u0161\u00ed grant orientovan\u00fd na v\u00fdzkumn\u00e1 t\u00e9mata doktorsk\u00fdch prac\u00ed mlad\u00fdch meteoro\u00adlog\u016f. V sou\u010dasnosti se \u0159e\u0161\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i t\u00e9mata:<\/span><\/p><ol><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Linearizovan\u00e1 verze modelu s vypracov\u00e1n\u00edm programu pro testov\u00e1n\u00ed citlivosti modelu na zm\u011bny v po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch, tzv. adjoing procedura, kter\u00e1 je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 pro testov\u00e1n\u00ed citlivosti modelu a jeho prediktabiln\u00ed schopnos\u00adti. V\u00fdsledky budou pou\u017eity v n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 \u010dty\u0159rozm\u011brn\u00e9 (x, y, p, t) varia\u010dn\u00ed asimilaci dat (Andr\u00e1s Hor\u00e1nyi, Ma\u00ad\u010farsko).<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Studium vlivu vlastnost\u00ed zemsk\u00e9ho povrchu (Elena Cordoneanu, Rumunsko).<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Srovn\u00e1n\u00ed dvou technik pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch p\u0159i modelov\u00e1n\u00ed v jemn\u00e9 s\u00edti uzlov\u00fdch bod\u016f: teleskopiza\u010dn\u00ed metoda p\u0159edstavuj\u00edc\u00ed soustavu vkl\u00e1dan\u00fdch model\u016f se st\u00e1le hust\u0161\u00ed s\u00edt\u00ed uzlov\u00fdch bod\u016f oproti metod\u011b prom\u011bnn\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b, tedy srovn\u00e1n\u00ed modelu ALADIN s modelem ARPEGE \u201ehyper-stretched&#8221;. Stretching p\u0159edstavuje speci\u00e1ln\u00ed techniku volby soustavy uzlov\u00fdch bod\u016f definovan\u00fdch geogra\u00adfick\u00fdmi sou\u0159adnicemi cp a k. Metoda je definov\u00e1na Schmittov\u00fdm konformn\u00edm (p\u0159i zachov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fahl\u016f) zobra\u00adzen\u00edm koule na samu sebe. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zahu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed uzlov\u00fdch bod\u016f je na p\u00f3lu. Podle toho jak chceme m\u00edt hustou s\u00ed\u0165 ve zvolen\u00e9 oblasti, vol\u00edme polohu p\u00f3lu. U modelu ALA\u00adDIN je p\u00f3l um\u00edst\u011bn p\u0159\u00edmo na Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e. (Michaela Caian, Rumunsko).<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Nehydrostatick\u00e1 verze modelu ALADIN (Radmila Bubnov\u00e1, \u010cesk\u00e1 republika).<\/span><\/li><\/ol><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Krom\u011b zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed v\u011bdeck\u00e9ho rozvoje modelu, grant Evropsk\u00e9ho spole\u010denstv\u00ed z\u00edskan\u00fd s kone\u010dnou platnost\u00ed v \u0159\u00edjnu 1993, umo\u017en\u00ed vlastn\u00ed dolad\u011bn\u00ed modelu a jeho plnou p\u0159ipravenost pro rutinn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed provoz. Tohoto pro\u00adjektu, garantovan\u00e9ho finan\u010dn\u011b Evropsk\u00fdm spole\u010denstv\u00edm, se z\u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed Bulharsko, \u010cesk\u00e1 republika, Ma\u010farsko, Polsko, Rumunsko a Slovensko, ze strany ES pak Francie a D\u00e1nsko. Ot\u00e1zkou je, kde, kdy a v jak\u00fdch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch bude mo\u017en\u00e9 model ALADIN provozovat, abychom dos\u00e1hli po\u017eadova\u00adn\u00e9ho u\u017eitku z jeho v\u00fdsledk\u016f. A pr\u00e1v\u011b v tomto bod\u011b nava\u00adzuje logicky projekt LACE, iniciovan\u00fd rakouskou meteoro\u00adlogickou slu\u017ebou, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 za c\u00edl provozovat operativn\u011b model s jemnou s\u00edt\u00ed uzlov\u00fdch bod\u016f v oblasti st\u0159edn\u00ed Evropy.<\/span><\/p><\/div><div><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>Projekt LACE<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Po\u010d\u00e1tek rakousk\u00e9 iniciativy sdru\u017eit zem\u011b st\u0159edn\u00ed Evropy do spole\u010dn\u00e9ho projektu modelov\u00e1n\u00ed LACE (Limited Area Central Europe) sah\u00e1 ji\u017e do doby zrodu projektu ALADIN (konec r. 1990). Rakousk\u00e1 slu\u017eba tehdy p\u0159izvala ke spo\u00adlupr\u00e1ci slu\u017ebu \u010deskou, chorvatskou, ma\u010farskou, polskou, slovenskou a slovinskou. P\u0159i tomto v\u00fd\u010dtu vyvstane jist\u011b leckter\u00e9mu \u010dten\u00e1\u0159i man\u011b na mysli meteorologick\u00e1 asociace sta\u0159i\u010dk\u00e9ho mocn\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Nosn\u00e1 my\u0161lenka vybudovat spolupr\u00e1ci mal\u00fdch st\u0159edo\u00adevropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed s ambici\u00f3zn\u00edmi aplika\u010dn\u00edmi c\u00edli je velmi dobr\u00e1 a jako takov\u00e1 byla p\u0159ijata v\u0161emi \u00fa\u010dastnick\u00fdmi stra\u00adnami. Bohu\u017eel ekonomick\u00e1 nevyv\u00e1\u017eenost v na\u0161em regionu a chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed zku\u0161enosti v modelov\u00e1n\u00ed nedovoluj\u00ed zorganizo\u00advat podobnou strukturu, jako nap\u0159\u00edklad maj\u00ed zem\u011b projektu HIRLAM (High Resolution Limited Area Model: D\u00e1nsko, Irsko, Island, Finsko, Holandsko, Norsko a \u0160v\u00e9dsko). Fakt, \u017ee Rakousko by se pod\u00edlelo finan\u010dn\u011b na realizaci nume\u00adrick\u00e9ho centra podstatn\u011b v\u00edce ne\u017e ostatn\u00ed st\u00e1ty a krylo by n\u00e1klady na hlavn\u00ed po\u010d\u00edta\u010d, znamen\u00e1 situov\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto centra do V\u00eddn\u011b. Na druhou stranu \u010cesk\u00e1 republika, Ma\u010farsko a d\u00e1le i Slovinsko maj\u00ed dostatek zku\u0161enost\u00ed s numerick\u00fdm modelov\u00e1n\u00edm, kde\u017eto situace ve zbyl\u00fdch slu\u017eb\u00e1ch je po\u00adm\u011brn\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed. Tento handicap je hlavn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou pomal\u00e9ho pokroku a pon\u011bkud v\u00e1hav\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstupu k realizaci. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b b\u011bhem posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f byla vypracov\u00e1na p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e1 studie, jej\u00ed\u017e podstatn\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry zde uvedu. T\u00fdto z\u00e1v\u011bry jsou shrnuty v dodatku k dokumentu \u201eMemoran\u00addum of Understanding&#8221;, podepsan\u00fdm na za\u010d\u00e1tku z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 1993 \u0159editeli zainteresovan\u00fdch slu\u017eeb, resp. st\u00e1l\u00fdmi z\u00e1stupci t\u011bchto slu\u017eeb ve WMO.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Region\u00e1ln\u00ed centrum bude m\u00edt samoz\u0159ejm\u011b mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed statut. Jeho hlavn\u00ed \u00falohou bude zabezpe\u010den\u00ed operativn\u00edho provozu modern\u00edho modelu mezo-synoptick\u00e9ho m\u011b\u0159\u00edtka a zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed kvalitn\u00edch NWP produkt\u016f pro v\u0161echny \u00fa\u010dastnick\u00e9 zem\u011b. Mimo to bude poskytovat \u0161kolic\u00ed a tr\u00e9ninkov\u00e9 ka\u00adpacity pro person\u00e1l p\u0159isp\u00edvaj\u00edc\u00edch slu\u017eeb a bude organizovat semin\u00e1\u0159e a konference. Centrum bude \u0159\u00edzeno koncilem \u0159e\u00additel\u016f participuj\u00edc\u00edch slu\u017eeb, kter\u00fd zavede vhodn\u00e1 mana\u00ad\u017eersk\u00e1 pravidla, v\u011bdeckou radu a finan\u010dn\u00ed komisi.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Operativn\u00ed model centra LACE mus\u00ed nutn\u011b odpov\u00eddat ny\u00adn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed technologick\u00e9 \u00farovni, abychom dos\u00e1hli \u017e\u00e1dan\u00e9 kvality produkt\u016f. Pro ujasn\u011bn\u00ed situace &#8211; v r\u00e1mci LACE nen\u00ed ani do\u00adstatek finan\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f, ani natolik siln\u00fd NWP t\u00fdm, aby se dal zajistit v\u00fdvoj tohoto modelu \u201ena zelen\u00e9 louce&#8221; s dota\u00ad\u017een\u00edm do operativn\u00ed praxe. Tato prost\u00e1 pravda znamen\u00e1 p\u0159i\u00adjmout jedin\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed: nav\u00e1zat kontakt s n\u011bkterou z \u201ev\u011bt\u0161\u00edch&#8221; evropsk\u00fdch meteorologick\u00fdch slu\u017eeb, kter\u00e1 by poskytla software modelu, bo\u010dn\u00ed okrajov\u00e9 podm\u00ednky z \u0159\u00edd\u00edc\u00edho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho modelu a pomoc p\u0159i za\u0161kolov\u00e1n\u00ed jak v\u011bdeck\u00e9ho, tak technick\u00e9ho t\u00fdmu. V Evrop\u011b p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed v \u00favahu pouze t\u0159i slu\u017eby, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed odborn\u00e9 t\u00fdmy a zku\u0161enost s ope\u00adrativn\u00edm provozem &#8211; n\u011bmeck\u00e1, francouzsk\u00e1 a anglick\u00e1.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Tato centra jsou ochotna poskytnout zdarma LAM software, to je ov\u0161em velmi mal\u00fd kr\u016f\u010dek k re\u00e1ln\u00e9mu denn\u00ed\u00admu provozu modelu. Modern\u00ed NWP k\u00f3dy, kter\u00e9 zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed efektivitu provozu, modularitu a univerzalitu pou\u017eit\u00ed, jsou dosti komplikovan\u00e9 a objemn\u00e9. Proto nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9, a bylo by to i nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9, zkusit d\u00e1t do provozu sice p\u0159ipravenou, ale jinak zcela nezn\u00e1mou \u201e\u010dernou sk\u0159\u00ed\u0148ku&#8221; na superpo\u010d\u00edta\u010di, a st\u00e1le je\u0161t\u011b se cht\u00edt vyrovnat s provozn\u00edmi probl\u00e9my a vy\u00adv\u00edjet dal\u0161\u00ed produkty na poli aplikovan\u00e9 meteorologie.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Skupina expert\u016f po zv\u00e1\u017een\u00ed mnoha ot\u00e1zek a vzhledem k posledn\u00edm aktivit\u00e1m z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00fdch slu\u017eeb doporu\u010duje kontrakt s M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France. Toto rozhodnut\u00ed bylo u\u010din\u011bno na z\u00e1klad\u011b n\u011bkolika velmi d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch fakt\u016f:<\/span><\/p><ul><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">existence velmi \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9ho a dob\u0159e pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edho pro\u00adjektu, ve kter\u00e9m spolupracuj\u00ed Bulharsko, \u010cesk\u00e1 re\u00adpublika, Francie, Ma\u010farsko, Polsko, Rakousko a Ru\u00admunsko;<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">tato spolupr\u00e1ce ji\u017e p\u0159inesla sv\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky &#8211; vyvinut\u00ed modelu ALADIN, kter\u00fd sv\u00fdm modern\u00edm stylem spl\u0148u\u00adje nemal\u00e9 n\u00e1roky na kvalitu a univerzalitu pou\u017eit\u00ed v budouc\u00edm centru;<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">b\u011bhem v\u00fdvoje modelu se zformoval dob\u0159e pracuj\u00edc\u00ed t\u00fdm, ke kter\u00e9mu se na podzim 1993 p\u0159ipojili st\u00e1\u017eist\u00e9 ze Slovenska a Slovinska, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se pln\u011b p\u0159edejde ne\u00adbezpe\u010d\u00ed provozu \u201e\u010dern\u00e9 sk\u0159\u00ed\u0148ky&#8221;;<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">existuj\u00edc\u00ed k\u00f3d ALADINU je nejen dobrou v\u00fdchoz\u00ed z\u00e1\u00adkladnou pro \u010detn\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e9 aplikace, ale tak\u00e9 mocn\u00fdm n\u00e1strojem pro v\u00fdzkum;<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Francouzsk\u00e1 meteorologick\u00e1 slu\u017eba je ochotno pod\u00adporovat projekt LACE:<\/span><\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"rteindent1\"><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">poskytnut\u00edm v\u00fdcviku zdarma a zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm \u00fadr\u017eby a kompatibility k\u00f3du z jejich strany;<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">v\u00fdcvikem a technickou podporou person\u00e1lu pro\u00advozuj\u00edc\u00edho operativn\u011b model na superpo\u010d\u00edta\u010di;<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00edm ve v\u011bdeck\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ci s existuj\u00edc\u00edm t\u00fdmem, co\u017e pom\u016f\u017ee v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu rozvoji modelu.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Aby se zajistil korektn\u00ed chod centra LACE spolu s ambi\u00adcemi dos\u00e1hnout \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed \u0161k\u00e1ly praktick\u00fdch aplikac\u00ed, bude pot\u0159e\u00adba soust\u0159edit t\u00fdm v po\u010dtu asi 10 v\u011bdeck\u00fdch pracovn\u00edk\u016f a 6 technick\u00fdch pracovn\u00edk\u016f. P\u0159itom by posta\u010dovalo, aby alespo\u0148 polovina t\u011bchto lid\u00ed byla p\u0159\u00edtomna v centru permanentn\u011b, ostatn\u00ed by pracovali s pomoc\u00ed vzd\u00e1len\u00fdch termin\u00e1l\u016f. D\u00e1le lid\u00e9 v t\u00fdmu by se st\u0159\u00eddali a to tak, aby ur\u010ditou \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9ho \u010dasu pracovali v centru a druhou \u010d\u00e1st v dom\u00e1c\u00ed slu\u017eb\u011b.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">ALADIN by se m\u011bl provozovat s vysok\u00fdm rozli\u0161en\u00edm, a to v\u017edy vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm ne\u017e \u0159\u00edd\u00edc\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed model ARPEGE, kter\u00fd poskytuje bo\u010dn\u00ed okrajov\u00e9 podm\u00ednky. Nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed akceptovatel\u00adn\u00fd pom\u011br rozli\u0161en\u00ed je 1:1,4, Z tohoto po\u017eadavku se d\u00e1 vyj\u00edt p\u0159i odhadu pot\u0159ebn\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu a pam\u011bti hlavn\u00edho po\u010d\u00edta\u010de. Pro rok 1994 to p\u0159edstavuje konfiguraci modelu ALADIN s efektivn\u00edm horizont\u00e1ln\u00edm rozli\u0161en\u00edm 20 km a 27 verti\u00adk\u00e1ln\u00edmi hladinami, na co\u017e posta\u010duje pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd v\u00fdkon stroje 400 Mflops, centr\u00e1ln\u00ed pam\u011b\u0165 128 Mw a SSD (Solid State Disc) pam\u011b\u0165 tak\u00e9 128 Mw. Je samoz\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee pro pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00ed obdob\u00ed mus\u00edme prov\u00e9st odhad znovu.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Na zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159enosu bo\u010dn\u00edch okrajov\u00fdch podm\u00ednek je nutn\u00e1 telekomunika\u010dn\u00ed linka o kapacit\u011b alespo\u0148 64 kbps. Pro p\u0159enos produkt\u016f ve vnit\u0159n\u00ed struktu\u0159e posta\u010duje kapacita 9,6 kbps. Bude nezbytn\u00e9 zav\u00e9st spojen\u00ed INTERNET pro umo\u017en\u011bn\u00ed pr\u00e1ce ze vzd\u00e1len\u00fdch termin\u00e1l\u016f a v\u00fdm\u011bnu informa\u00adce elektronickou po\u0161tou.<\/span><\/p><\/div><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Na rozpo\u010dtu centra LACE by se pod\u00edlely v\u0161echny z\u00fa\u00ad\u010dastn\u011bn\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, a sice podle pravidla o v\u00fd\u0161i hrub\u00e9ho n\u00e1\u00adrodn\u00edho d\u016fchodu. Na \u010ceskou republiku tak p\u0159ipad\u00e1 asi 14 % pod\u00edlu na celkov\u00e9m financov\u00e1n\u00ed, co\u017e ro\u010dn\u011b p\u0159edstavuje v\u00fd\u00addaje mezi 8 a\u017e 10 mili\u00f3ny korun. V tomto okam\u017eiku se asi mnoho \u010dten\u00e1\u0159\u016f zept\u00e1, zda-li m\u00e1 smysl takovou \u010d\u00e1stku vynakl\u00e1dat a jak\u00fd u\u017eitek LAM p\u0159inese.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>U\u017eite\u010dnost centra LACE pro \u010cHM\u00da<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Pokus\u00edm se alespo\u0148 stru\u010dn\u011b shrnout, jak\u00fd prosp\u011bch centrum LACE, nebo l\u00e9pe \u0159e\u010deno produkty modelu mezo-synoptick\u00e9ho m\u011b\u0159\u00edtka provozovan\u00e9ho za na\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dasti, lze o\u010de\u00adk\u00e1vat. V principu se prosp\u011bch odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed ve dvou z\u00e1kladn\u00edch sm\u011brech:<\/span><\/p><ul><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">znalosti a praktick\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti v numerick\u00e9m modelo\u00adv\u00e1n\u00ed, modern\u00edm odv\u011btv\u00ed meteorologie, zasahuj\u00edc\u00edm dosti \u0161iroce dal\u0161\u00ed v\u011bdn\u00ed obory,<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">praktick\u00fd u\u017eitek, kter\u00fd je uplatn\u011bn p\u0159i p\u0159\u00edprav\u011b \u010detn\u00fdch fin\u00e1ln\u00edch produkt\u016f meteorologick\u00e9 slu\u017eby, napom\u00e1haj\u00ed\u00adc\u00edch celkov\u00e9mu prosp\u011bchu spole\u010dnosti a t\u00e9\u017e v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch pro komer\u010dn\u00ed aktivitu.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Druh\u00fd bod se t\u00fdk\u00e1 hlavn\u011b produkt\u016f modelu &#8211; jejich zpra\u00adcov\u00e1n\u00edm se te\u010f budu zab\u00fdvat podrobn\u011bji. P\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky numerick\u00e9 integrace popisuj\u00ed fyzik\u00e1ln\u00ed stav modelov\u00e9 atmosf\u00e9ry v dan\u00e9m prostorov\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku a prognostick\u00e9m \u010dase. Jejich bohatost a kvalita z\u00e1vis\u00ed na slo\u017eitosti modelu, po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edch a okrajov\u00fdch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch (uva\u017eujme model na omezen\u00e9 oblasti). Pokud zv\u00fd\u0161\u00edme prostorov\u00e9 rozli\u0161en\u00ed, nov\u00e1 fyzik\u00e1ln\u00ed informace se do modelu dost\u00e1v\u00e1 prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed podm\u00ednky a hust\u0161\u00edho (tedy p\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho) zad\u00e1n\u00ed fyziografick\u00fdch dat povrchu (e.g. orografie a jej\u00ed odvozen\u00e9 charakteristiky, obsahy vl\u00e1hy v p\u016fd\u011b, p\u016fdn\u00ed teploty, typy p\u016fdy a vegetace, p\u0159\u00edtomnost sn\u011bhov\u00e9 pokr\u00fdvky \u010di ledu, albedo, emisivita, etc), kter\u00e9 svou interakc\u00ed ovlivn\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159\u00edmo p\u0159edpov\u00eddan\u00fdch \u010di diagnosticky ur\u010den\u00fdch meteorologick\u00fdch prvk\u016f.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Aby bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky interpretovat, prov\u00e1d\u00ed se jejich dal\u0161\u00ed zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed &#8211; tzv. \u201epostprocessing&#8221; &#8211; na r\u016fzn\u00e9 \u00farovni, v z\u00e1vislosti na c\u00edlech a mo\u017enostech.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Nejsnadn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, dalo by se \u0159\u00edci klasick\u00e1 cesta zalo\u017een\u00e1 hlav\u00adn\u011b na prostorov\u00e9 interpolaci, poskytuje standardn\u00ed soubor pov\u011btrnostn\u00edch map, pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch meteorologem na progn\u00f3\u00adze, jako termobarick\u00e9 pole, pole proud\u011bn\u00ed, kumulace sr\u00e1\u017eek atd. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed rozli\u0161en\u00ed zlep\u0161\u00ed zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b p\u0159edpov\u011bdi p\u0159\u00edzemn\u00edch meteorologick\u00fdch prvk\u016f d\u00edky lep\u0161\u00edmu popisu charakteristik ter\u00e9nu, ale kvalitn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed se prom\u00edtne i v horn\u00edch vrstv\u00e1ch atmosf\u00e9ry. Kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed tak pro\u00adfituj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edmo, i kdy\u017e \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enosti postprocessingu se nevyu\u017eij\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Dal\u0161\u00ed zlep\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f lze dos\u00e1hnout nap\u0159\u00edklad n\u011bkte\u00adr\u00fdmi metodami statistick\u00e9 adaptace modelov\u00fdch v\u00fdstup\u016f. Statistick\u00e9 vztahy napom\u00e1haj\u00ed lep\u0161\u00ed interpretaci p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch interpolovan\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f pro p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f v dan\u00e9 lokalit\u011b. Osv\u011bd\u010dily se ji\u017e metody pro tvorbu pseudosynop\u016f, zlep\u0161u\u00adj\u00edc\u00edch p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f p\u0159\u00edzemn\u00ed teploty, insolace, vlhkosti.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V\u00fdsledky mezo-synoptick\u00fdch model\u016f spolu s vypraco\u00advan\u00fdm post-processingem zvy\u0161uj\u00ed potenci\u00e1l \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nosti v p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010dasov\u00fdch extr\u00e9m\u016f, co\u017e je jedna z nejt\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00edch \u00faloh pro meteorologa a z\u00e1rove\u0148 jedna z nejzaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00edch v\u011bc\u00ed pro klienta. Pro r\u016fzn\u00e9 typy situac\u00ed lze vybudovat va\u00adrovn\u00e9 syst\u00e9my, a to podle toho, ve kter\u00e9m meteorologick\u00e9m prvku jsou extr\u00e9mn\u00ed hodnoty podstatn\u00e9. Nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159edpov\u011bzen\u00e9 kumulace sr\u00e1\u017eek mohou b\u00fdt vstupem pro hydrolo\u00adgick\u00e9 modely, kter\u00e9 pak simuluj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Vedle mo\u017enosti statistick\u00e9 adaptace lze aplikovat techni\u00adku dynamick\u00fdch adaptac\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jsou jin\u00fdm druhem post\u00adprocessingu. Nap\u0159\u00edklad, jednodimenzion\u00e1ln\u00ed vertik\u00e1ln\u00ed model s vysok\u00fdm rozli\u0161en\u00edm se d\u00e1 pou\u017e\u00edt pro podrobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed popis vertik\u00e1ln\u00edch profil\u016f. M\u016f\u017eeme tak simulovat podm\u00ednky v mezn\u00ed vrstv\u011b &#8211; teplotn\u00ed inverze, mlhy, nebezpe\u010d\u00ed n\u00e1mrazk\u016f. Je nasnad\u011b, \u017ee tyto produkty se pou\u017eij\u00ed v problematice \u017ei\u00advotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Mnoho dal\u0161\u00edch specializovan\u00fdch \u00faloh je \u0159e\u0161eno s pomoc\u00ed modelov\u00fdch produkt\u016f. Pole proud\u011bn\u00ed slou\u017e\u00ed k v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016fm tra\u00adjektori\u00ed vzduchov\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1stic, bu\u010fto zp\u011btn\u00fdch \u010di pro\u00adgnostick\u00fdch. To je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 pro problematiku \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed exhalac\u00ed a varovn\u00e9 syst\u00e9my pro p\u0159\u00edpad hav\u00e1rie (chemick\u00e1 \u010di radio\u00adaktivn\u00ed kontaminace) a pro epizody vysok\u00fdch koncentrac\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00edch l\u00e1tek. Jin\u00e9 aplikace se nab\u00edzej\u00ed v leteck\u00e9 me\u00adteorologii.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V tomto stru\u010dn\u00e9m p\u0159ehledu nemohu vy\u010derpat zdaleka v\u0161echny mo\u017enosti aplikac\u00ed, ale z t\u011bchto hlavn\u00edch sm\u011br\u016f a p\u0159\u00ed\u00adklad\u016f nen\u00ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 na \u0159adu dal\u0161\u00edch p\u0159ij\u00edt, nech\u00e1me-li se inspi\u00adrovat.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>Nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed perspektivy<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Z\u00e1v\u011brem bych cht\u011bla podat p\u0159ibli\u017enou informaci o tom, kdy m\u016f\u017eeme \u010dekat prvn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed mapy z modelu ALA\u00adDIN, a shrnout n\u011bkolik podstatn\u00fdch fakt\u016f.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Pozvoln\u00fd start centra LACE je pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n na konec roku 1995, za\u010d\u00e1tek roku 1996. To je ov\u0161em p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 dlouh\u00e1 doba na to, abychom \u010dekali s p\u0159ipraven\u00fdm modelem ALADIN od poloviny roku 1994. Jedno z prozat\u00edmn\u00edch \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed po\u00adskytne M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France, a sice operativn\u00edm provozem ALADINu na po\u010d\u00edta\u010di CRAY-C98 v Toulouse. V\u00fdsledky se budou v prvn\u00ed f\u00e1zi p\u0159en\u00e1\u0161et v mapov\u00e9 form\u011b satelitn\u00ed stanic\u00ed RETEM. Tento provoz by m\u011bl za\u010d\u00edt v druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b roku 1994. D\u00e1le bude mo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159ij\u00edmat p\u0159es toto satelitn\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed i bin\u00e1rn\u00ed informaci (tedy n\u011bco jako zprvu GRIB), se kterou budeme moci pracovat v \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed \u0161k\u00e1le (n\u011bkter\u00e9 druhy post\u00adprocessingu) a z\u00e1rove\u0148 nebude t\u0159eba platit v\u00edce za teleko\u00admunika\u010dn\u00ed spojen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Ot\u00e1zkou je, jak\u00e9 kroky m\u016f\u017eeme podniknout v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee se start centra LACE zpozd\u00ed a prvotn\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed nebude kapacitn\u011b posta\u010dovat pokr\u00fdt zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 n\u00e1roky klient\u016f. Existuj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enosti, kter\u00e9 je v\u0161ak t\u0159eba dob\u0159e zv\u00e1\u017eit.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Pravdou ale z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee na poli v\u00fdzkumu v numerick\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed se \u010cHM\u00da za\u0159adilo velmi dob\u0159e do me\u00adzin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce, a \u017ee s existenc\u00ed modelu ALADIN na\u00adst\u00e1v\u00e1 \u010das, kdy se do celkov\u00e9ho mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho konceptu za\u0159ad\u00ed odd\u011blen\u00ed zodpov\u011bdn\u00e1 za operativn\u00ed provoz &#8211; progn\u00f3zn\u00ed a technick\u00fd t\u00fdm.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Tato strategie n\u00e1m m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e9st novou skute\u010dnost &#8211; p\u0159e\u00adstaneme b\u00fdt pasivn\u00edmi u\u017eivateli numerick\u00fdch produkt\u016f z ji\u00adn\u00fdch center, na kter\u00e9 nem\u00e1me vliv, ale budeme moci vyu\u017e\u00edt prost\u00e9ho faktu partnerstv\u00ed a zp\u011btnou vazbou ovlivnit v\u00fdzkum a dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj modelu ALADIN ve sm\u011bru jeho praktick\u00fdch aplikac\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rteright\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Radmila Bubnov\u00e1, MZ 1993\/6, ro\u010dn\u00edk 46, str. 185-188<\/em><\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Numerick\u00e1 p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed je jednou z modern\u00edch a z\u00e1rove\u0148 jednou z nejn\u00e1ro\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch meteorologick\u00fdch discipl\u00edn, kter\u00e1 prod\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1 v posledn\u00edch desetilet\u00edch bou\u0159liv\u00fd v\u00fdvoj. Obrovsk\u00fd skok v technologii modelov\u00e1n\u00ed atmosf\u00e9ry byl a je [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-11923","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/11923","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11923"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/11923\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11927,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/11923\/revisions\/11927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11923"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}