{"id":11747,"date":"2025-01-05T10:00:05","date_gmt":"2025-01-05T09:00:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/?page_id=11747"},"modified":"2025-01-05T10:01:58","modified_gmt":"2025-01-05T09:01:58","slug":"predpovedni-system-ecmwf-produkty-a-jejich-vyuziti-v-predpovedni-sluzbe-chmu","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/predpovedni-system-ecmwf-produkty-a-jejich-vyuziti-v-predpovedni-sluzbe-chmu\/","title":{"rendered":"P\u0158EDPOV\u011aDN\u00cd SYST\u00c9M ECMWF, PRODUKTY A JEJICH VYU\u017dIT\u00cd V P\u0158EDPOV\u011aDN\u00cd SLU\u017dB\u011a \u010cHM\u00da"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"11747\" class=\"elementor elementor-11747\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-96f2866 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"96f2866\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-b52ab4c\" data-id=\"b52ab4c\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f7b4d11 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f7b4d11\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.17.0 - 08-11-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>1. \u00daVOD<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Evropsk\u00e9 centrum pro st\u0159edn\u011bdobou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast, ECMWF) je produktem stolet\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje dynamick\u00e9 a synoptick\u00e9 meteorologie a pades\u00e1tilet\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje numerick\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed [1]. My\u0161lenka jeho vzniku se objevila v 60. letech, kdy se na z\u00e1klad\u011b zku\u0161enost\u00ed s kr\u00e1tkodobou p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed a klimatologickou simulac\u00ed n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed odborn\u00edci poprv\u00e9 pokusili vytvo\u0159it st\u0159edn\u011bdobou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed. Centrum bylo z\u0159\u00edzeno v roce 1973 \u010dlensk\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi tehdej\u0161\u00ed EU a b\u00fdvalou Jugosl\u00e1vi\u00ed. Na platform\u011b multinacion\u00e1ln\u00ed kooperace umo\u017e\u0148uje spole\u010dn\u00e9 financov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1kladn\u00e9 \u010dinnosti (zejm\u00e9na vysoce v\u00fdkonn\u00e9ho superpo\u010d\u00edta\u010de) a z\u00e1rove\u0148 i sd\u00edlen\u00ed kapacit odborn\u00edk\u016f-model\u00e1\u0159\u016f z \u010dlensk\u00fdch zem\u00ed. Jedin\u011b tak se ECMWF da\u0159\u00ed produkovat kvalitn\u00ed objektivn\u00ed st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi a dal\u0161\u00ed informace. V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b je v centru soust\u0159ed\u011bno 18 \u010dlensk\u00fdch zem\u00ed (Belgie, D\u00e1nsko, Finsko, Francie, Holandsko, Irsko, It\u00e1lie, Lucembursko, N\u011bmecko, Norsko, Portugalsko, Rakousko, \u0158ecko, \u0160pan\u011blsko, \u0160v\u00e9dsko, \u0160v\u00fdcarsko, Turecko, Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie). Smlouvu o spolupr\u00e1ci (p\u0159idru\u017een\u00e9 \u010dlenstv\u00ed) uzav\u0159ely \u010cesk\u00e1 republika, Chorvatsko, Island, Ma\u010farsko, Slovinsko, Srbsko a \u010cern\u00e1 Hora a d\u00e1le Sv\u011btov\u00e1 meteorologick\u00e1 organizace (WMO), Evropsk\u00e1 organizace pro vyu\u017eit\u00ed meteorologick\u00fdch dru\u017eic (EUMETSAT) a Africk\u00e9 centrum meteorologick\u00fdch aplikac\u00ed (ACMAD). V ECMWF pracuje p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 230 zam\u011bstnanc\u016f, ro\u010dn\u00ed rozpo\u010det je kolem 25 milion\u016f liber. Operativn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi jsou po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1ny od roku 1979, ans\u00e1mblov\u00e9 od roku 1992.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V pr\u016fb\u011bhu minul\u00e9ho roku m\u011bli n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed pracovn\u00edci \u010cHM\u00da mo\u017enost z\u00fa\u010dastnit se vybran\u00fdch \u0161kolic\u00edch kurz\u016f pravideln\u011b po\u0159\u00e1dan\u00fdch evropsk\u00fdm centrem. Kurzy umo\u017enily podrobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sezn\u00e1men\u00ed nejen se samotn\u00fdmi v\u00fdstupy ECMWF a jejich pou\u017eit\u00edm v p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed praxi meteorologa, ale i s p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpravou dat pro v\u00fdpo\u010det v\u00fdchoz\u00ed anal\u00fdzy, operativn\u00edm modelem pro deterministickou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f, syst\u00e9mem ans\u00e1mblov\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed, verifikac\u00ed, p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdch jev\u016f a sezonn\u00edmi p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010fmi.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u00da\u010dast z\u00e1rove\u0148 umo\u017enila pod\u00edvat se do fungov\u00e1n\u00ed \u0161pi\u010dkov\u00e9ho p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edho pracovi\u0161t\u011b a v\u00fdm\u011bnu n\u00e1zor\u016f s deleg\u00e1ty kurzu z jednotliv\u00fdch meteorologick\u00fdch slu\u017eeb v Evrop\u011b o zku\u0161enostech a nov\u00fdch praktick\u00fdch poznatc\u00edch z t\u00e9to oblasti v\u010detn\u011b mo\u017enosti jejich vyu\u017eit\u00ed. V\u00fdznam a p\u0159\u00ednos \u010dlenstv\u00ed v ECMWF je nutn\u00e9 vysv\u011btlit odborn\u00edk\u016fm v \u010cHM\u00da i \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed zainteresovan\u00e9 ve\u0159ejnosti. S nov\u00fdmi produkty a metodami p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1n\u00ed se musej\u00ed hlavn\u011b sezn\u00e1mit provozn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed slu\u017eby \u010cHM\u00da. K tomu maj\u00ed slou\u017eit ji\u017e uskute\u010dn\u011bn\u00e9 a nov\u011b pl\u00e1novan\u00e9 semin\u00e1\u0159e a intern\u00ed \u0161kolen\u00ed nebo p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ky \u010cesk\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti. A pr\u00e1v\u011b na tato t\u00e9mata se \u010dl\u00e1nek zam\u011b\u0159uje.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>2. P\u0158EDPOV\u011aDN\u00cd SYST\u00c9M ECMWF<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">P\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed syst\u00e9m ECMWF se skl\u00e1d\u00e1 ze t\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00edch \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed: p\u0159\u00edprava a syst\u00e9m asimilace dat, glob\u00e1ln\u00ed cirkula\u010dn\u00ed model a ans\u00e1mblov\u00fd p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed syst\u00e9m.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Do glob\u00e1ln\u00edho modelu vstupuje velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed dat &#8211; SYNOP, TEMP, SHIP, BUOYS&#8230;. Dopad na zlep\u0161en\u00ed kvality p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed maj\u00ed leteck\u00e1 a dru\u017eicov\u00e1 m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed, co\u017e umo\u017e\u0148uje z\u00edskat data i z m\u00edst s nedostatkem klasick\u00fdch m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed. Nap\u0159. d\u00edky dru\u017eicov\u00fdm m\u011b\u0159en\u00edm se kvalita p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed pro ji\u017en\u00ed polokouli dostala t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 na \u00farove\u0148 kvality p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed pro severn\u00ed polokouli.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V\u0161echna pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed proch\u00e1zej\u00ed d\u016fslednou kontrolou kvality dat. Data mohou b\u00fdt vy\u0159azov\u00e1na trvale, do\u010dasn\u011b (ka\u017ed\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc aktualizace seznamu) i jednor\u00e1zov\u011b, a to na z\u00e1klad\u011b srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s modelov\u00fdm polem (p\u0159edchoz\u00ed kr\u00e1tkodobou p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed), se sousedn\u00edmi pozorov\u00e1n\u00edmi i s jin\u00fdmi typy dat (hydrostatick\u00e1 kontrola TEMP dat apod.).<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V\u00fdchoz\u00ed anal\u00fdza, tedy vlastn\u011b po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed stav pro v\u00fdpo\u010det p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed, je z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1na 4D VAR asimilac\u00ed dat, kter\u00e1 se prov\u00e1d\u00ed dvakr\u00e1t denn\u011b na z\u00e1klad\u011b dat z obdob\u00ed 03 a\u017e 15 UTC (asimila\u010dn\u00ed okno) &#8211; pro anal\u00fdzu ze 12 UTC, a z obdob\u00ed 15 a\u017e 03 UTC &#8211; pro anal\u00fdzu z 00 UTC.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">P\u0159edpov\u011bdi jsou operativn\u011b po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1ny na 10 dn\u00ed dop\u0159edu, a to dvakr\u00e1t denn\u011b z v\u00fdchoz\u00edch anal\u00fdz 12 UTC a experiment\u00e1ln\u011b z 00 UTC. Hlavn\u00ed (deterministick\u00e1) p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f je po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm modelem T511 L60. T511 je tzv. vlnov\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo, kter\u00e9 ukazuje na horizont\u00e1ln\u00ed rozli\u0161en\u00ed modelu, v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b 40 km, a L60 zna\u010d\u00ed po\u010det hladin modelu, v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b 60 od zem\u011b a\u017e po hladinu 0,1 hPa (ca do v\u00fd\u0161ky 64 km), z \u010deho\u017e 12 hladin je pod \u00farovn\u00ed hladiny 850 hPa. \u010casov\u00fd krok modelu je 15 minut.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Obecn\u011b jsou chyby p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed numerick\u00fdch model\u016f zp\u016fsobov\u00e1ny jak chybami samotn\u00e9ho modelu (omezen\u00e9 rozli\u0161en\u00ed modelu, ne zcela p\u0159esn\u00e1 parametrizace fyzik\u00e1ln\u00edch proces\u016f), tak i nep\u0159esnou znalost\u00ed v\u00fdchoz\u00edho stavu atmosf\u00e9ry (chyby m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed, nedostatek pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed nad oce\u00e1ny apod.). I mal\u00e9 chyby v\u00fdchoz\u00edho stavu mohou b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi nar\u016fst v rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 chyby. Nep\u0159esn\u00e1 znalost v\u00fdchoz\u00edho stavu nap\u0159. v oblasti Ameriky mu\u017ee v\u00e9st k chybn\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi pov\u011btrnostn\u00ed situace a k ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed nad Evropu. Tyto chyby se sna\u017e\u00ed postihnout tzv. syst\u00e9m ans\u00e1mblov\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed (EPS). Spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 ve spo\u010dten\u00ed 50 nepatrn\u011b pozm\u011bn\u011bn\u00fdch (perturbovan\u00fdch) v\u00fdchoz\u00edch anal\u00fdz tak, aby velikost jejich odchylek od neperturbovan\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy byla v rozsahu chyb stanoven\u00ed v\u00fdchoz\u00ed anal\u00fdzy. Jsou po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1ny metodou singul\u00e1rn\u00edch vektor\u016f, kter\u00e1 se sna\u017e\u00ed identifikovat dynamicky nestabiln\u00ed regiony atmosf\u00e9ry t\u00edm, \u017ee studuje line\u00e1rn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj perturbac\u00ed v\u00fdchoz\u00edho stavu po dobu 48 hodin a vyb\u00edr\u00e1 takov\u00e9, kter\u00e9 rostou nejv\u00edce. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b takto z\u00edskan\u00fdch 50 anal\u00fdz je spo\u010dteno 50 p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed a d\u00e1le jedna kontroln\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f z neperturbovan\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy. V\u0161echny jsou spo\u010dteny modelem s men\u0161\u00edm rozli\u0161en\u00edm T255 L40 (80 km, 40 hladin). Tyto p\u0159edpov\u011bdi tvo\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1klad syst\u00e9mu ans\u00e1mblov\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi (EPS).<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>3. PRODUKTY SYST\u00c9MU ANS\u00c1MBLOV\u00c9 P\u0158EDPOV\u011aDI<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">P\u0159\u00edm\u00fd v\u00fdstup t\u011bchto 51 p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed (\u010dlen\u016f EPS) lze vzhledem k jejich po\u010dtu a \u010dasov\u00e9mu omezen\u00ed meteorologa jen velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u011b pou\u017e\u00edt. Prakticky se meteorolog m\u016f\u017ee v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b velk\u00e9 nejistoty p\u0159edpov\u011bdi jen pod\u00edvat, jak\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st \u010dlen\u016f d\u00e1v\u00e1 nap\u0159. cyklon\u00e1ln\u00ed a jak\u00e1 anticyklon\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdvoj. Pro usnadn\u011bn\u00ed pr\u00e1ce meteorologa jsou p\u0159edpov\u011bdi zpracov\u00e1v\u00e1ny r\u016fzn\u00fdmi zp\u016fsoby, p\u0159itom se vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00e9 produkty:<\/span><\/p><ul><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u00a0Ensemble mean, tedy pr\u016fm\u011br v\u0161ech \u010dlen\u016f ans\u00e1mblu.<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Clustery (shluky, skupiny) se vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed tak, \u017ee se p\u0159edpov\u011bdi rozd\u011bl\u00ed do n\u011bkolika skupin (dle situace v po\u010dtu 1 a\u017e 6), p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e do jednotliv\u00fdch skupin jsou p\u0159i\u0159azov\u00e1ny navz\u00e1jem podobn\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 skupina je pak charakterizov\u00e1na sv\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011brem. Touto metodou dostaneme nejv\u00fd\u0161e \u0161est r\u016fzn\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed (sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f) a jejich spolehlivost je \u00fam\u011brn\u00e1 po\u010dtu \u010dlen\u016f, ze kter\u00fdch byla vytvo\u0159ena. Rozd\u011blen\u00ed do skupin se nyn\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u00ed na z\u00e1klad\u011b RMS diferenc\u00ed (odmocnina ze st\u0159edn\u00ed kvadratick\u00e9 odchylky) mezi geopotenci\u00e1lem 500 hPa jednotliv\u00fdch \u010dlen\u016f sou\u010dasn\u011b pro p\u0159edpov\u011bdi na 120, 144 a 168 hodin.<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Tubes (tuby) nab\u00edz\u00ed jin\u00fd zp\u016fsob vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed skupin. Nejd\u0159\u00edve se \u010dleny EPS, kter\u00e9 jsou podobn\u00e9 k pr\u016fm\u011bru v\u0161ech \u010dlen\u016f (Ensemble mean), daj\u00ed do tzv. nult\u00e9 skupiny a spo\u010dte se jejich pr\u016fm\u011br. Tak dostaneme tzv. Tube 0 (central cluster mean). Ten ud\u00e1v\u00e1 nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj, kter\u00fd je v\u0161eobecn\u011b podobn\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011bru v\u0161ech \u010dlen\u016f ans\u00e1mblu. D\u00e1le se z vylou\u010den\u00fdch (nepodobn\u00fdch) \u010dlen\u016f vytvo\u0159\u00ed Tube 1 a\u017e Tube 9 (po\u010det dle situace), uspo\u0159\u00e1dan\u00e9 podle sni\u017euj\u00edc\u00edch se odchylek od Tube 0, p\u0159itom ka\u017ed\u00e1 je reprezentovan\u00e1 jeho nejextr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm \u010dlenem pro lep\u0161\u00ed vizualizaci odli\u0161n\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed. Tubes se (podobn\u011b jako clustery) vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed na z\u00e1klad\u011b RMS diferenc\u00ed mezi geopotenci\u00e1lem 500 hPa jednotliv\u00fdch \u010dlen\u016f. Pro ka\u017ed\u00fd referen\u010dn\u00ed \u010das p\u0159edpov\u011bdi (+ 96 h, + 144 h, + 168 h, + 192 h a + 240 h) se vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 48hodinov\u00e1 \u0159ada kon\u010d\u00edc\u00ed t\u00edmto \u010dasem (nap\u0159. + 48\/ + 72\/ + 96 h pro referen\u010dn\u00ed \u010das + 96 h).<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V\u0161echny tyto produkty jsou po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1ny pro 5 r\u016fzn\u00fdch oblast\u00ed (cel\u00e1 Evropa, JZ, SZ, SV a JV Evropa) a v\u00fdsledky jsou k dispozici ve form\u011b pol\u00ed geopotenci\u00e1lu 500 a 1 000 hPa a teploty v 500 a 850 hPa.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/sites\/default\/files\/ecmwf.JPG\" alt=\"\" \/>Tvorba takov\u00fdchto produkt\u016f je v\u017edy kompromisem; v\u00fdhoda zhu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed informac\u00ed jde na \u00fakor nebezpe\u010d\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty informac\u00ed, kter\u00e9 v n\u011bkter\u00fdch pov\u011btrnostn\u00edch situac\u00edch mohou b\u00fdt v\u00fdznamn\u00e9. Pro rozd\u00edln\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e9 situace nebo i d\u00e9lku p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edho obdob\u00ed mohou vyhovovat rozd\u00edln\u00e1 zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e neexistuje ide\u00e1ln\u00ed zp\u016fsob. Zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt provedeno na v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed nebo men\u0161\u00ed geografick\u00e9 oblasti, na z\u00e1klad\u011b rozd\u00edln\u00fdch parametr\u016f, pro jednotliv\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed term\u00edny (kdy doch\u00e1z\u00ed ke ztr\u00e1t\u011b synoptick\u00e9 kontinuity) nebo pro del\u0161\u00ed (n\u011bkolikadenn\u00ed) p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed obdob\u00ed. Jako ide\u00e1ln\u00ed se jev\u00ed tvorba n\u011bkolika zp\u016fsob\u016f zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed, kdy meteorolog m\u00e1 mo\u017enost volby, kter\u00fd produkt v dan\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e9 situaci pou\u017eije.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Dal\u0161\u00edmi produkty EPS jsou tzv. plumes (vle\u010dky obr. 1), zobrazuj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f teploty v\u00a0hladin\u011b 850 hPa, celkov\u00fdch sr\u00e1\u017eek po 12 hodin\u00e1ch a geopotenci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fd\u0161ky 500 hPa jak z hlavn\u00edho (\u010d\u00e1rkovan\u011b) a kontroln\u00edho (plnou \u010darou) modelu, tak i z\u00a050 perturbovan\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed (tenk\u00fdmi \u010darami).<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Dal\u0161\u00edm produktem jsou tzv. meteogramy (obr. 2), zobrazuj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi obla\u010dnosti, celkov\u00fdch sr\u00e1\u017eek, rychlosti v\u011btru v 10 m a teploty ve 2 m po 6 hodin\u00e1ch. P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f hlavn\u00edho modelu je vyj\u00e1d\u0159ena plnou \u010darou, kontroln\u00edho modelu \u010d\u00e1rkovanou \u010darou a p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f 50 \u010dlen\u016f EPS pomoc\u00ed sloupcov\u00e9ho grafu (typ je bl\u00edzk\u00fd tzv. burzovn\u00edmu grafu), ukazuj\u00edc\u00edch jejich statistick\u00e9 rozd\u011blen\u00ed po 25 %.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>4. VYU\u017dIT\u00cd PRODUKT\u016e SYST\u00c9MU ANS\u00c1MBLOV\u00c9 P\u0158EDPOV\u011aDI<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V\u00fdstupy z hlavn\u00edho modelu n\u00e1m d\u00e1vaj\u00ed jednu (deterministickou) p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f, tedy jen jeden mo\u017en\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 v\u00fdvoje po\u010das\u00ed v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch dnech. Z n\u011bho ov\u0161em nepozn\u00e1me, jak\u00e1 je m\u00edra nejistoty t\u00e9to p\u0159edpov\u011bdi, nebo zda m\u016f\u017ee nastat i zcela jin\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159. V prvn\u00edch dnech p\u0159edpov\u011bdi je vhodn\u00e9 pou\u017e\u00edvat produkty deterministick\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi, vych\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed z modelu s v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm rozli\u0161en\u00edm, kter\u00e9 jsou podrobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, s rostouc\u00ed d\u00e9lkou p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edho obdob\u00ed nar\u016fst\u00e1 v\u00fdznam ans\u00e1mblov\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed, jeho\u017e produkty (Ensemble mean, Tube 0) maj\u00ed lep\u0161\u00ed konzistenci a na v\u00edce dn\u016f dop\u0159edu i lep\u0161\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost ne\u017e deterministick\u00e1 p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f. Produkty ans\u00e1mblov\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se sna\u017e\u00ed postihnout dopad nep\u0159esn\u00e9 znalosti v\u00fdchoz\u00edho stavu atmosf\u00e9ry, ukazuj\u00ed nejen na mo\u017en\u00e9 rozd\u00edln\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, ale i na m\u00edru nejistoty p\u0159edpov\u011bdi.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Lze je v z\u00e1sad\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edt t\u0159emi zp\u016fsoby:<\/span><\/p><ul><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Posouzen\u00ed m\u00edry nejistoty p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bt v\u00fdvoj v atmosf\u00e9\u0159e z rozb\u00edh\u00e1n\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed &#8211; \u010dlen\u016f EPS (spread). Na z\u00e1klad\u011b toho meteorolog vyd\u00e1 p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f (kategorickou) se sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm stupn\u011b podrobnosti dle m\u00edry nejistoty p\u0159edpov\u011bdi.<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Indik\u00e1tor mo\u017en\u00fdch alternativ v\u00fdvoje &#8211; v\u00fdsledkem m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt vyd\u00e1n\u00ed podrobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi dopln\u011bn\u00e9 jednou, pop\u0159. v\u00edce alternativami pro m\u00e9n\u011b p\u0159edpov\u011bditeln\u00e9 obdob\u00ed.<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Lok\u00e1ln\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnostn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi meteorologick\u00fdch prvk\u016f vyu\u017eiteln\u00e9 zejm\u00e9na p\u0159i rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 jsou spojena s rizikem ekonomick\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t v z\u00e1vislosti na stavu po\u010das\u00ed (ekonomick\u00e1 hodnota p\u0159edpov\u011bdi), pro prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed preventivn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed, rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed zda vydat v\u00fdstra\u017enou informaci apod.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>5. DAL\u0160\u00cd PRODUKTY A SLU\u017dBY ECMWF<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Vedle popsan\u00fdch z\u00e1kladn\u00edch produkt\u016f pokra\u010duje v ECMWF v\u00fdvoj n\u011bkter\u00fdch dal\u0161\u00edch. Pro p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f extr\u00e9mn\u00edch sr\u00e1\u017eek, teplot a v\u011btru byl zaveden Extr\u00e9mn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed index (Extreme Forecast Index &#8211; EFI), kter\u00fd ud\u00e1v\u00e1 \u201eextr\u00e9mnost\u201c meteorologick\u00e9ho prvku ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s klimatologick\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011brem pro ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u00edsto a obdob\u00ed v\u00a0roce na z\u00e1klad\u011b rozlo\u017een\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnosti prvku z EPS. Hodnota indexu se pohybuje od -100 % do +100 % (p\u0159i -100 % p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bn\u00e9 hodnoty prvku jsou velmi mal\u00e9, p\u0159i 0 % odpov\u00eddaj\u00ed klimatick\u00e9mu rozlo\u017een\u00ed, p\u0159i +100 % jsou extr\u00e9mn\u011b velk\u00e9). Indexy jsou zobrazov\u00e1ny do map v barevn\u00e9 \u0161k\u00e1le jen tam, kde p\u0159esahuj\u00ed zpravidla \u00b150 %, tedy na prvn\u00ed pohled jsou patrn\u00e9 oblasti \u010di regiony, kde lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat velkou odchylku meteorologick\u00e9ho prvku od norm\u00e1lu. Vzhledem k mal\u00e9mu po\u010dtu extr\u00e9mn\u00edch jev\u016f je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 ud\u011blat p\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed tohoto indexu.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/sites\/default\/files\/ecmwf1.JPG\" alt=\"\" \/>V n\u011bkter\u00fdch slu\u017eb\u00e1ch (nap\u0159. ve \u0160v\u00fdcarsku) se pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 tzv. Confidence index. Ud\u00e1v\u00e1 d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost (spolehlivost) p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed na z\u00e1klad\u011b automatick\u00e9ho vyhodnocen\u00ed nap\u0159. lok\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi obla\u010dnosti a sr\u00e1\u017eek jednotliv\u00fdch \u010dlen\u016f EPS na jednotliv\u00e9 dny nebo dle rozlo\u017een\u00ed pov\u011btrnostn\u00edch situac\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u00eddan\u00fdch jednotliv\u00fdmi \u010dleny EPS.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Od roku 1995 se zde tak\u00e9 experiment\u00e1ln\u011b po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed a sezonn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi, a to a\u017e na 6 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f dop\u0159edu. P\u0159itom se v\u017edy pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fd model s men\u0161\u00edm rozli\u0161en\u00edm sp\u0159a\u017een\u00fd s\u00a0oce\u00e1nsk\u00fdm modelem. Jimi se po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi na odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed obdob\u00ed (nap\u0159. v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi se po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 dvakr\u00e1t m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b 51 p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed &#8211; \u010dlen\u016f na 30 dn\u016f dop\u0159edu). P\u0159itom se vych\u00e1z\u00ed z dopadu zm\u011bn teploty povrchu oce\u00e1nu na atmosf\u00e9rickou cirkulaci a pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 se oce\u00e1nsk\u00e1 asimilace dat, perturbace v\u011btru a povrchov\u00e9 teploty oce\u00e1n\u016f. V\u00fdstupy sezonn\u00edch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed jsou v mapov\u00e9 form\u011b teplotn\u00edch a sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch odchylek k dispozici na webov\u00fdch str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch ECMWF [2]. Pou\u017eit\u00ed sezonn\u00edch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed nen\u00ed jednoduch\u00e9, je t\u0159eba pracovat s pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed a v\u00fdsledky citliv\u011b interpretovat. Vliv oce\u00e1nu (povrchov\u00e9 teploty) na atmosf\u00e9ru je v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v tropick\u00fdch oblastech, kde je tak po\u010das\u00ed l\u00e9pe p\u0159edpov\u011bditeln\u00e9 ne\u017e v m\u00edrn\u00fdch zem\u011bpisn\u00fdch \u0161\u00ed\u0159k\u00e1ch, kde jsou sezonn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9. V ECMWF bylo uvedeno, \u017ee vliv Atlantsk\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu na Evropu st\u00e1le nen\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u011b prozkoum\u00e1n. Podle v\u00fdzkum\u016f se zd\u00e1, \u017ee velmi siln\u00e9 El Ni\u00f1o (1982, 1997) m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt vliv i na Evropu.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V ECMWF se nach\u00e1z\u00ed rozs\u00e1hl\u00fd archiv meteorologick\u00fdch dat za v\u00edce ne\u017e 25 let obsahuj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159es 250 Tbyte. Obsahuje p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm anal\u00fdzy, ale i p\u0159edpov\u011bdi a v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 experimenty ve standardn\u00edch form\u00e1tech GRIB a BUFR. Pro \u00fa\u010dely ovl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed a p\u0159\u00edstupu do archivu byl vyvinut software MARS (Meteorological Archive and Retrieval System). P\u0159\u00edstup do n\u011bho je mo\u017en\u00fd pomoc\u00ed web serveru \u010dlensk\u00fdch zem\u00ed nebo po zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edch link\u00e1ch, po kter\u00fdch p\u0159ij\u00edmaj\u00ed data z ECMWF n\u00e1rodn\u00ed meteorologick\u00e9 slu\u017eby.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V archivu jsou tak\u00e9 tzv. reanal\u00fdzy, na kter\u00e9 se v posledn\u00edch letech kladl velk\u00fd d\u016fraz. Jsou p\u0159ipraveny s vyu\u017eit\u00edm dostupn\u00fdch dat (v\u010detn\u011b dru\u017eicov\u00fdch) pomoc\u00ed 3D VAR asimilace dat modelem T159 L60, kter\u00fd produkuje anal\u00fdzy v \u0161estihodinov\u00fdch intervalech. Poskytuj\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed anal\u00fdzy stavu atmosf\u00e9ry, povrchu zem\u011b, oce\u00e1n\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b rozlo\u017een\u00ed ozonu pro obdob\u00ed od poloviny roku 1957, vyu\u017eiteln\u00e9 jako n\u00e1stroj pro studie atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fdch a hydrologick\u00fdch mechanizm\u016f a cykl\u016f, v\u00fdvoje pozorovac\u00edho syst\u00e9mu, p\u0159edpov\u011bditelnosti atd.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Pro tento rok je v ECMWF pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n test modelu s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm vertik\u00e1ln\u00edm rozli\u0161en\u00edm (L90), v\u00fdpo\u010dty 100 \u010dlen\u016f EPS, pro v\u00fdpo\u010det vstupn\u00ed anal\u00fdzy pou\u017eit\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho mno\u017estv\u00ed dru\u017eicov\u00fdch dat (MSG, ENVISAT, AIRS ..) a v roce 2004 i zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed horizont\u00e1ln\u00edho rozli\u0161en\u00ed u v\u0161ech model\u016f (deterministick\u00fd, EPS). Z\u00e1rove\u0148 budou prov\u00e1d\u011bny experimenty ohledn\u011b po\u010dtu \u010dlen\u016f EPS versus rozli\u0161en\u00ed modelu, pop\u0159. i \u010detnost\u00ed jejich v\u00fdpo\u010dtu, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e z\u00e1kladn\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou je, kter\u00e1 varianta bude d\u00e1vat lep\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdsledky s ni\u017e\u0161\u00edmi provozn\u00edmi n\u00e1klady.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/sites\/default\/files\/ecmwf2.JPG\" alt=\"\" \/>Nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi c\u00edli ECMWF pro obdob\u00ed do roku 2008 je postupn\u00e9 prodlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nosti st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00fdch deterministick\u00fdch i pravd\u011bpodobnostn\u00edch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed tempem jeden den za desetilet\u00ed, poskytovat spolehliv\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdch jev\u016f postupn\u011b na 4 a\u017e 5 dn\u016f dop\u0159edu, do roku 2004 vyhodnotit \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost sezonn\u00edch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed na datech za posledn\u00edch 40 let a zlep\u0161it jejich spolehlivost. Tato zlep\u0161en\u00ed kvality a p\u0159esnosti p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed n\u00e1sledn\u011b p\u0159inese podstatn\u00fd zisk evropsk\u00fdm ekonomik\u00e1m a spole\u010dnosti.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>6. MO\u017dNOSTI A \u00daSP\u011a\u0160NOST NUMERICK\u00ddCH MODEL\u016e VE ST\u0158EDN\u011aDOB\u00c9 P\u0158EDPOV\u011aDI<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Produkty tzv. syst\u00e9mu ans\u00e1mblov\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi mohou poukazovat na mo\u017en\u00e9 odli\u0161n\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e v\u00fdvoje pov\u011btrnostn\u00ed situace v z\u00e1vislosti na v\u00fdchoz\u00edm stavu (pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed) atmosf\u00e9ry. Umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed posouzen\u00ed m\u00edry nejistoty p\u0159edpov\u011bdi a vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnostn\u00edch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed. V operativn\u00ed m\u00edstnosti ECMWF se denn\u011b vyhodnocuj\u00ed aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u010detn\u011b pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 byla z dal\u0161\u00edho pou\u017eit\u00ed vy\u0159azena, a v\u00fdsledn\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi. Vyhodnocuj\u00ed se odchylky p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed, jejich st\u0159edn\u00ed kvadratick\u00e9 chyby i konzistence, a hodnot\u00ed se i ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s v\u00fdstupy z jin\u00fdch center. Sleduj\u00ed se p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 rozd\u00edly (increments) mezi pozorov\u00e1n\u00edmi a p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed kr\u00e1tkodobou p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed, kter\u00e9 mohou m\u00edt za n\u00e1sledek odli\u0161n\u00fd v\u00fdvoj meteorologick\u00e9 situace. P\u0159\u00ed\u010diny takov\u00fdch rozd\u00edl\u016f jsou pak konzultov\u00e1ny s modelov\u00fdm odborn\u00edkem. Dosti \u010dast\u00fdm zdrojem chyb p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed jsou tropick\u00e9 cyklony, kter\u00e9 neb\u00fdvaj\u00ed pozorov\u00e1n\u00edmi dostate\u010dn\u011b podchyceny a vzhledem ke sv\u00e9 energii a dynamice v\u00fdvoje maj\u00ed velk\u00fd dopad na atmosf\u00e9rickou cirkulaci.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Vznikl\u00e9 chyby se s d\u00e9lkou p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edho obdob\u00ed nejen zv\u011bt\u0161uj\u00ed, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 v d\u016fsledku atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulace postupuj\u00ed s proud\u011bn\u00edm. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f pro st\u0159edn\u00ed Evropu na dva dny dop\u0159edu je obvykle z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edm stavu nad Evropou a Atlantikem, na t\u0159i a\u017e p\u011bt dn\u016f nad po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edm stavem i nad severn\u00ed Amerikou a na v\u00edce ne\u017e 5 dn\u016f i nad severn\u00edm Pacifikem.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">I kdy\u017e v ECMWF po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed v\u00fdsledky numerick\u00fdch model\u016f a\u017e na 10 dn\u016f dop\u0159edu (model z NCEP ve Washingtonu je zve\u0159ej\u0148uje a\u017e na 15 dn\u016f), je v\u0161eobecn\u00e1 shoda, \u017ee p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed d\u00e9lka pou\u017eitelnosti (smysluplnosti) t\u011bchto produkt\u016f pro v\u0161eobecn\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b je kolem 7 dn\u016f. Po uplynut\u00ed tohoto obdob\u00ed statistick\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky klesaj\u00ed ke klimatologick\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011br\u016fm. P\u0159itom \u00fatvary mal\u00fdch m\u011b\u0159\u00edtek jsou h\u016f\u0159e p\u0159edpov\u011bditeln\u00e9. Podrobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ehled je uveden v tab. 1. P\u0159itom p\u0159edpov\u011bditelnost se m\u016f\u017ee velmi li\u0161it od situace k situaci. N\u011bkdy p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f na 4 dny dop\u0159edu m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt chybn\u00e1 i ve velk\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku, jindy naopak p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f na 7 dn\u00ed dop\u0159edu m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1 i v detailech. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee v\u00fdskyt nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdch jev\u016f je \u010dasto lokalizov\u00e1n do mal\u00fdch oblast\u00ed (n\u011bkdy p\u0159i velmi nestabiln\u00edch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch), lze je p\u0159edpov\u00eddat dle druhu jevu s p\u0159edstihem zpravidla maxim\u00e1ln\u011b na 3 a\u017e 5 dn\u016f.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>7. VYU\u017dIT\u00cd PRODUKT\u016e ECMWF V \u010cESK\u00c9 REPUBLICE<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">P\u0159edpov\u011bdi ECMWF jsou k dispozici ve form\u011b pol\u00ed ve form\u00e1tu GRIB, \u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad (meteogram\u016f) ve form\u00e1tu BUFR i postprocessingov\u00fdch produkt\u016f (clusters, tubes), op\u011bt ve form\u00e1tu GRIB. Produkty sezonn\u00edch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed &#8211; anom\u00e1lie jsou pouze grafick\u00e9. Data a hotov\u00e9 produkty jsou \u010dlensk\u00fdm i p\u0159idru\u017een\u00fdm zem\u00edm roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1ny pomoc\u00ed zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed linky nebo pomoc\u00ed webov\u00fdch str\u00e1nek [2] (s omezen\u00edm p\u0159\u00edstupu pro ve\u0159ejnost k n\u011bkter\u00fdm produkt\u016fm). Omezen\u00fd po\u010det dat je roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n pomoc\u00ed GTS a d\u00e1le p\u0159es dru\u017eici Meteosat.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Do \u010cHM\u00da data p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed po lince 64 kB\/s. Po zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed jsou meteorolog\u016fm v p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed slu\u017eb\u011b Centr\u00e1ln\u00edho p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edho pracovi\u0161t\u011b (CPP) k dispozici v ti\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 form\u011b p\u0159\u00edzemn\u00ed tlakov\u00e1 pole, teploty v hladin\u011b 850 hPa, geopotenci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fd\u0161ka a teplota 500 hPa a vlhkost v 700 hPa. D\u00e1le jsou pomoc\u00ed intranetu zobrazov\u00e1ny p\u0159edpov\u011bdi sr\u00e1\u017eek a pravd\u011bpodobnosti sr\u00e1\u017eek v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch ne\u017e 1, 5, 10 a 20 mm\/24 h. Z webov\u00fdch str\u00e1nek ECMWF se pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed produkty ans\u00e1mblov\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed. V\u0161echny tyto produkty jsou k dispozici zpravidla po 12 hodin\u00e1ch a\u017e na 10 dn\u016f dop\u0159edu. Pro zobrazov\u00e1n\u00ed produkt\u016f, zejm\u00e9na pro \u00fa\u010dely jejich zp\u011btn\u00e9ho vyhodnocen\u00ed, se pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 software Metview.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">I kdy\u017e jsou n\u011bkter\u00e9 produkty ECMWF pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1ny i p\u0159i tvorb\u011b kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed, jejich hlavn\u00ed pou\u017eit\u00ed je v rozsahu st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed v\u010detn\u011b p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9ho v\u00fdskytu nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdch jev\u016f. S p\u0159idru\u017een\u00fdm \u010dlenstv\u00edm \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky byla d\u00e9lka st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed vyd\u00e1van\u00fdch na CPP v Praze prodlou\u017eena celkem o dva dny. Nyn\u00ed je vyd\u00e1v\u00e1na na 2. a\u017e 4. den s vyhl\u00eddkou na 5. a\u017e 8. den. \u010c\u00e1st produkt\u016f pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed i region\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed pracovi\u0161t\u011b, kter\u00e1 ze zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed na region\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi na t\u0159i dny dop\u0159edu. P\u0159itom jsou z\u00e1rove\u0148 pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1ny i n\u011bmeck\u00fd glob\u00e1ln\u00ed model a model z Washingtonu (NCEP). V rozsahu kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed jsou p\u0159edpov\u011bdi d\u00e1le up\u0159es\u0148ov\u00e1ny zejm\u00e9na pomoc\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00edch model\u016f ALADIN a n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho lok\u00e1ln\u00edho modelu LM. Produkty ECMWF byly pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1ny i p\u0159i p\u0159edpov\u011bdi sr\u00e1\u017eek a vyd\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdstra\u017en\u00fdch informac\u00ed v pr\u016fb\u011bhu povodn\u011b v srpnu 2002. Zejm\u00e9na v\u00fdstupy z tohoto centra v\u00fdrazn\u011b pomohly v\u010das upozornit na n\u00e1stup druh\u00e9 povod\u0148ov\u00e9 vlny.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Informativn\u011b jsou vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1ny produkty sezonn\u00edch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed. V\u00fdsledky modelu v\u010detn\u011b produkt\u016f syst\u00e9mu ans\u00e1mblov\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed jsou operativn\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1ny p\u0159i v\u00fdb\u011bru analogick\u00fdch pov\u011btrnostn\u00edch typ\u016f pro m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f. D\u00e1le jsou na z\u00e1klad\u011b produkt\u016f ECMWF po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1ny trojrozm\u011brn\u00e9 trajektorie l\u00e1tek, unikl\u00fdch p\u0159i p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 radia\u010dn\u00ed nebo velk\u00e9 chemick\u00e9 hav\u00e1rii. Produkty ECMWF jsou tak\u00e9 poskytov\u00e1ny Pov\u011btrnostn\u00edmu \u00fast\u0159ed\u00ed arm\u00e1dy \u010cR.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>8. Z\u00c1V\u011aR<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u010cesk\u00e1 republika se po del\u0161\u00edm \u00fasil\u00ed stala p\u0159idru\u017een\u00fdm \u010dlenem ECMWF, co\u017e \u010cHM\u00da umo\u017enilo dostat se k \u0161irok\u00e9 \u0161k\u00e1le kvalitn\u00edch podklad\u016f pro p\u0159\u00edpravu a tvorbu p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00fdch. B\u011bhem kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 doby za\u010daly b\u00fdt vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1ny nejen na Centr\u00e1ln\u00edm p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edm pracovi\u0161ti, ale n\u011bkter\u00e9 produkty i na region\u00e1ln\u00edch pracovi\u0161t\u00edch. To umo\u017enilo prodlou\u017eit p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed obdob\u00ed a do ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u00edry posunout dop\u0159edu mo\u017enost v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed na nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 \u010di limitn\u00ed hydrometeorologick\u00e9 jevy.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Pro meteorology u n\u00e1s jsou nov\u00fdm produktem zejm\u00e9na produkty tzv. syst\u00e9mu ans\u00e1mblov\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi, kter\u00e9 mohou ukazovat na mo\u017en\u00e9 rozd\u00edln\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e v\u00fdvoje pov\u011btrnostn\u00ed situace, a tedy i po\u010das\u00ed, umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed vytv\u00e1\u0159et pravd\u011bpodobnostn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi apod. Tyto produkty pon\u011bkud m\u011bn\u00ed zp\u016fsob p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1n\u00ed a prezentace samotn\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed a\u0165 u\u017e ve\u0159ejnosti nebo speci\u00e1ln\u00edm u\u017eivatel\u016fm. D\u00e1le jsme z\u00edskali mo\u017enost \u00fa\u010dastnit se \u0161kolic\u00edch kurz\u016f, kter\u00e9 ECMWF ka\u017ed\u00fd rok po\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1 jak pro meteorology, kte\u0159\u00ed produkty pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edmo v p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed slu\u017eb\u011b, tak pro pracovn\u00edky zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed se na v\u00fdvoj numerick\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Z u\u017eivatelsk\u00e9ho hlediska bude t\u0159eba i nad\u00e1le vytv\u00e1\u0159et nov\u00e9 produkty, nejl\u00e9pe s pou\u017eit\u00edm kombinace deterministick\u00e9 a pravd\u011bpodobnostn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi, v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b p\u0159edpov\u011bdi nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdch jev\u016f m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pravd\u011bpodobnostn\u00ed vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed lep\u0161\u00ed. Tvorba produkt\u016f m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt i automatick\u00e1 a po kontrole meteorologa jednodu\u0161e dostupn\u00e1 u\u017eivatel\u016fm.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Literatura<\/em>:<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">[1] PERSSON, A., 2001. User Guide to ECMWF forecast products. Meteorological Bulletin, M3.2, ECMWF, 119 s.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">[2] Internetov\u00e9 str\u00e1nky ECMWF <a style=\"color: #003366;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ecmwf.int\">http:\/\/www.ecmwf.int<\/a><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rteright\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Franti\u0161ek Sopko &#8211; Marjan Sandev, MZ 2003\/4, ro\u010dn\u00edk 56, str. 119-123<\/em><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>1. \u00daVOD Evropsk\u00e9 centrum pro st\u0159edn\u011bdobou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast, ECMWF) je produktem stolet\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje dynamick\u00e9 a synoptick\u00e9 meteorologie a pades\u00e1tilet\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje numerick\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed [1]. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-11747","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/11747","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11747"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/11747\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11751,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/11747\/revisions\/11751"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11747"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}