{"id":11618,"date":"2025-01-04T21:34:22","date_gmt":"2025-01-04T20:34:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/?page_id=11618"},"modified":"2025-01-04T21:34:44","modified_gmt":"2025-01-04T20:34:44","slug":"treti-cast-nove-hodnotici-zpravy-ipcc-2007","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/treti-cast-nove-hodnotici-zpravy-ipcc-2007\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u0159et\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st nov\u00e9 hodnot\u00edc\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy IPCC 2007"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"11618\" class=\"elementor elementor-11618\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-6113a4d elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"6113a4d\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-aa095ac\" data-id=\"aa095ac\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-40d9b10 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"40d9b10\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.17.0 - 08-11-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Ve dnech 30. dubna \u2013 4. kv\u011btna 2007 se konalo v Bangkoku 9. zased\u00e1n\u00ed pracovn\u00ed skupiny WG III Mezivl\u00e1dn\u00edho panelu ke klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b, kter\u00e9 projednalo t\u0159et\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st \u010ctvrt\u00e9 hodnot\u00edc\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy IPCC Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Pracovn\u00ed verze Shrnut\u00ed pro politiky (SPM) je uve\u0159ejn\u011bna na <a style=\"color: #003366;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/SPM040507.pdf\">http:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/SPM040507.pdf<\/a>, pracovn\u00ed verze textu cel\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy na <a style=\"color: #003366;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.mnp.nl\/ipcc\/pages_media\/\">http:\/\/www.mnp.nl\/ipcc\/pages_media\/<\/a>AR4-chapters.html.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">B\u011bhem obdob\u00ed 1910 a\u017e 2004 se sv\u011btov\u00e9 emise sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f zv\u00fd\u0161ily o 70 % (z toho od roku 1990 o 24 % na celkovou sou\u010dasnou \u00farove\u0148 49 Gt CO<sub>2 ekv.<\/sub>. N\u00e1r\u016fst emis\u00ed v rozvojov\u00fdch st\u00e1tech se st\u00e1le zrychluje a ji\u017e dnes je jich emise p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017eily p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek ekonomicky vysp\u011bl\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a \u010din\u00ed 54 %. Nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bji rostly emise z energetiky (nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed o 145 % stavu v roce 1970) a dopravy (120 %). Za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee v nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch letech nedojde k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu posunu st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho energetick\u00e9ho mixu zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed se do roku 2030 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed emise v z\u00e1vislosti na typu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e SRES o 25 a\u017e 90 % oproti stavu v\u00a0roce 2000 a dv\u011b t\u0159etiny a\u017e t\u0159i \u010dtvrtiny tohoto n\u00e1r\u016fstu p\u0159ipadnou na vrub rozvojov\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V\u00fdsledky zpr\u00e1vy nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159i zohledn\u011bn\u00ed re\u00e1ln\u00e9 diskontn\u00ed sazby existuje do roku 2030 p\u0159ijateln\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd potenci\u00e1l sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed emis\u00ed. Podle \u201etop-down\u201c model\u016f charakterizuj\u00edc\u00edch ekonomick\u00e9 vazby mezi jednotliv\u00fdmi sektory dosahuje celosv\u011btov\u00fd potenci\u00e1l p\u0159i n\u00e1kladech do 20 USD\/t CO<sub>2 ekv. <\/sub>14 Gt CO<sub>2 ekv.<\/sub>. Co\u017e by umo\u017enilo sn\u00ed\u017eit o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 emise v roce 2030 p\u0159i st\u0159edn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i SRES (A1B) p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 20 %. P\u0159i n\u00e1kladech do 50 USD\/t CO<sub>2 ekv.<\/sub> m\u016f\u017ee sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed dos\u00e1hnout p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 25 %, p\u0159i n\u00e1kladech do 100 USD\/t CO<sub>2 ekv. <\/sub>asi 30 %.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Ve zpr\u00e1v\u011b lze nal\u00e9zt i z\u00e1kladn\u00ed odpov\u011b\u010f na ot\u00e1zku, kter\u00e9 sektory nab\u00edzej\u00ed pro dosa\u017een\u00ed \u00faspor nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed prostor, a i zde rozhoduje v\u00fd\u0161e vynalo\u017een\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f. Jsou-li n\u00e1klady ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 20 USD\/t CO<sub>2 ekv.<\/sub>, pak je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed reduk\u010dn\u00ed potenci\u00e1l v opat\u0159en\u00edch, sm\u011brovan\u00fdch do obytn\u00e9 a komer\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1stavby (sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed emis\u00ed o 13 %) a d\u00e1le v energetice, doprav\u011b a zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed (v\u017edy kolem 4 %). Nav\u00fd\u0161\u00edme-li modelov\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1klady na 100 USD\/t CO<sub>2 ekv.<\/sub>, pak se reduk\u010dn\u00ed potenci\u00e1l v obytn\u00e9 a komer\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1stavb\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed na 14 %, v zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed na 10 %, pr\u016fmyslu na 9 % a energetice na 8 %; nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v odpadov\u00e9m hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed (m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 2 %) a doprav\u011b (5 %). Mezi kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e1 \u00fasporn\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed v \u201enejnad\u011bjn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm\u201c sektoru (obytn\u00e1 a komer\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1stavba) zpr\u00e1va za\u0159azuje nap\u0159. \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9 osv\u011btlovac\u00ed syst\u00e9my, vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1ni denn\u00edho sv\u011btla, provozov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch elektrick\u00fdch spot\u0159ebi\u010d\u016f, topn\u00fdch \u010di chladic\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f, zlep\u0161en\u00ed izolac\u00ed, vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed pasivn\u00edch \u010di aktivn\u00edch slune\u010dn\u00edch kolektor\u016f, pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed modern\u00edch chlad\u00edc\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzeni a jejich pravidelnou \u00fadr\u017ebu. Ve st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9m horizontuje t\u0159eba po\u010d\u00edtat nav\u00edc se zahrnut\u00edm energetick\u00fdch \u00faspor ji\u017e do procesu \u00fazemn\u00edho pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed a celkov\u00e9ho designu navrhovan\u00fdch objekt\u016f \u010di z\u00e1stavby.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Z hlediska dlouhodob\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed je t\u0159eba vych\u00e1zet z pot\u0159eby v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho poklesu emis\u00ed po roce 2030, kdy by emise m\u011bly kulminovat. Reduk\u010dn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed je t\u0159eba zam\u011b\u0159it na rychl\u00e9 roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed portfolia modern\u00edch technologi\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jsou v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b k dispozici a d\u00e1le na nov\u00e9 technologie, u nich\u017e lze p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat rychl\u00e9 komer\u010dn\u00ed roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed. To v\u0161e ale p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed podpory v\u00fdzkumu, v\u00fdvoje, propagace, n\u00e1kupu a \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed nov\u00fdch technologi\u00ed a odstra\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eek.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 poznatky lze odvodit z modelov\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f, kter\u00e9 se zab\u00fdvaj\u00ed odhadem emisn\u00edch \u00faspor do roku 2030 ve vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch prim\u00e1rn\u00edch energetick\u00fdch zdroj\u016f. V ekonomicky vysp\u011bl\u00fdch st\u00e1tech (se sou\u010dasn\u00fdmi reduk\u010dn\u00edmi z\u00e1vazky dle Kj\u00f3tsk\u00e9ho protokolu) mohou p\u0159i st\u0159edn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i SRES A1B dos\u00e1hnout celkov\u00e9 emisn\u00ed \u00faspory p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 15% p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9ho stavu v roce 2030, v\u00a0rozvojov\u00fdch st\u00e1tech kolem 9 %. Na \u00faspor\u00e1ch se ve vysp\u011bl\u00fdch ekonomik\u00e1ch m\u016f\u017ee nejv\u00edce pod\u00edlet dal\u0161\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed jadern\u00e9 energetiky (5,7 %), zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed nov\u00fdch spalovac\u00edch technologi\u00ed a z\u00e1m\u011bna pevn\u00fdch paliv za plynn\u00e1 (2,1 %), vodn\u00ed energie (1,9 %), v\u011btrn\u00e1 energie (1,5 %), atd.; v rozvojov\u00fdch st\u00e1tech je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed potenci\u00e1l ve vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed biomasy (2 %), j\u00e1dru (1,5 % a z\u00e1m\u011bn\u011b paliv (1,3 %).<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Pokud jde o n\u00e1klady na sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed emis\u00ed, pak ve vysp\u011bl\u00fdch ekonomik\u00e1ch m\u00e1 p\u0159i nejni\u017e\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1kladech (do 20 USD\/t CO<sub>2 ekv.<\/sub>) op\u011bt nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed potenci\u00e1l j\u00e1dro (28 % pod\u00edlu na v\u00fdsledn\u00e9m sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed), d\u00e1le vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed plynu (24 %) a obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f energie (biomasa, v\u00edtr, slunce, geoterm\u00e1ln\u00ed energie, atd.) s 18 %. Obnoviteln\u00e9 zdroje a ukl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed oxidu uhli\u010dit\u00e9ho do zem\u011b z\u00edsk\u00e1vaj\u00ed p\u0159evahu a\u017e p\u0159i zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f na 100 USD\/t CO<sub>2 ekv.<\/sub> .<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Pr\u00e1v\u011b p\u0159i diskus\u00edch o mo\u017enostech dosa\u017een\u00ed emisn\u00edch \u00faspor a v\u00fd\u0161e orienta\u010dn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f se projevila odli\u0161nost n\u00e1zoru z\u00e1stupc\u016f USA a Kanady a delegace EU. Av\u0161ak ani v\u00a0r\u00e1mci EU nepanovala shoda a snahu o um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00e9 formulace v\u00a0SPM ohledn\u011b mo\u017enost\u00ed jadern\u00e9 energetiky ke konci jedn\u00e1n\u00ed prosazovaly ji\u017e t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u00fdhradn\u011b z\u00e1stupci Rakouska a N\u011bmecka&#8230;<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rteright\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Jan Pretel, MZ 2007\/3, ro\u010dn\u00edk 60, str. 76<\/em><\/span><\/p><hr \/><h2><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>Mezivl\u00e1dn\u00ed panel ke klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b (IPCC) \u2013 nov\u00e1 hodnot\u00edc\u00ed zpr\u00e1va z\u00a0roku 2007<\/strong><\/span><\/h2><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>1. \u00davod<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">XVIII. plen\u00e1rn\u00ed zased\u00e1n\u00ed Mezivl\u00e1dn\u00edho panelu ke klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b IPCC (Wembley, z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2001) rozhodlo o p\u0159\u00edprav\u011b \u010ctvrt\u00e9 hodnot\u00edc\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy IPCC (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) s term\u00ednem jej\u00edho dokon\u010den\u00ed v roce 2007. Podobn\u011b jako v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy [1] budou i tentokr\u00e1te v\u00fdstupy obsa\u017eeny ve t\u0159ech \u010d\u00e1stech, z nich\u017e ka\u017ed\u00e1 bude shrnovat v\u00fdsledky p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9 pracovn\u00ed skupiny. Po dokon\u010den\u00ed v\u0161ech t\u0159\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed bude je\u0161t\u011b v z\u00e1v\u011bru roku vyd\u00e1na syntetick\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st souhrnn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy (AR4 Synthesis Report).<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Ve dnech 29. 1. a\u017e 1. 2. 2007 se konalo v Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei X. plen\u00e1rn\u00ed zased\u00e1n\u00ed pracovn\u00ed skupiny I, kter\u00e1 se zab\u00fdv\u00e1 v\u011bdeck\u00fdmi aspekty klimatick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu a klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny. Zased\u00e1n\u00ed projednalo a schv\u00e1lilo zpr\u00e1vu t\u00e9to pracovn\u00ed skupiny s n\u00e1zvem Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis [2]. Struktura prac\u00ed a \u010dlen\u011bn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy byla dohodnuta na dvou p\u0159\u00edpravn\u00fdch expertn\u00edch sch\u016fzk\u00e1ch (Marr\u00e1ke\u0161, duben 2003, Potsdam, z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2003). V letech 2004 a\u017e 2006 pracovn\u00ed t\u00fdmy analyzovaly nejaktu\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed publikovan\u00e9 a \u0159\u00e1dn\u011b recenzovan\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky a postupn\u011b p\u0159ipravili t\u0159i pracovn\u00ed verze z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e9ho textu, kter\u00fd byl diskutov\u00e1n na \u010dty\u0159ech setk\u00e1n\u00edch autorsk\u00fdch t\u00fdm\u016f a n\u00e1sledn\u011b pro\u0161el syst\u00e9mem extern\u00edch oponentur podle pravidel IPCC.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Zpr\u00e1va obsahuje celkem 11 samostatn\u00fdch kapitol s n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edmi n\u00e1zvy, kter\u00e9 z d\u016fvodu zachov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159esnosti uv\u00e1d\u00edme v angli\u010dtin\u011b:<\/span><\/p><ul><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Historical Overview of Climate Change Science<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Paleoclimate<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Climate Models and Their Evaluation<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Understanding and Attributing Climate Change<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Global Climate Projections<\/span><\/li><li class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">\u00a0Regional Climate Projections<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">B\u011bhem p\u0159\u00edpravy zpr\u00e1vy bylo rozhodnuto, aby v\u00a0z\u00e1jmu zp\u0159esn\u011bn\u00ed a vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdpov\u011bdn\u00ed schopnosti v\u00fdstup\u016f byly z\u00e1sadn\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011bry hodnoceny na \u00farovni expertn\u00edch odhad\u016f i z hlediska pravd\u011bpodobnosti jejich mo\u017en\u00e9ho napln\u011bn\u00ed. Byla p\u0159ijata terminologie, kter\u00e1 je z d\u016fvod\u016f p\u0159esnosti spolu s odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edmi anglick\u00fdmi term\u00edny uvedena v tab. 1 a kter\u00e1 je u vybran\u00fdch jev\u016f pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1na i v tomto p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">P\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek souhrnn\u011b popisuje z\u00e1kladn\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011bry zpr\u00e1vy, a pokud je to mo\u017en\u00e9, i rozd\u00edly oproti p\u0159edchoz\u00ed zpr\u00e1v\u011b IPCC z roku 2001 [1]. Z\u00e1jemc\u016fm o podrobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed informace lze samoz\u0159ejm\u011b doporu\u010dit [2].<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>2. Antropogenn\u00ed a p\u0159irozen\u00e9 vlivy<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">N\u00e1r\u016fst emis\u00ed sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f po roce 1750 (po\u010d\u00e1tek industrializace) je prim\u00e1rn\u011b zp\u016fsobov\u00e1n spalov\u00e1n\u00edm fosiln\u00edch paliv, zem\u011bd\u011blskou \u010dinnost\u00ed a zm\u011bnami ve vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed krajiny. Atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 koncentrace oxidu uhli\u010dit\u00e9ho (CO<sub>2<\/sub>) jako nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho antropogenn\u00edho sklen\u00edkov\u00e9ho plynu vzrostly z hodnot p\u0159ed rokem 1750 (kolem 280 ppm) na 379 ppm v roce 2005. Ro\u010dn\u00ed emise CO<sub>2<\/sub> se zv\u00fd\u0161ily z pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u00ed hodnoty 6,4 GtC v devades\u00e1t\u00fdch letech minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed na hodnoty kolem 7,2 GtC v letech 2000\u20132005. Koncentrace metanu (CH<sub>4<\/sub>) se za stejn\u00e9 obdob\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161ily z p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 715 ppb na 1174 ppb V roce 2005 a u oxidu dusn\u00e9ho (N<sub>2<\/sub>O) z 270 ppb na 319 ppb. Trend n\u00e1r\u016fstu obou t\u011bchto plyn\u016f je od devades\u00e1t\u00fdch let minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b konstantn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V mezidob\u00ed mezi t\u0159et\u00ed a \u010dtvrtou Zpr\u00e1vou do\u0161lo k v\u00fdznamn\u00e9mu zp\u0159esn\u011bn\u00ed odhad\u016f vlivu jednotliv\u00fdch l\u00e1tek na oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010di ochlazov\u00e1n\u00ed klimatick\u00e9ho syt\u00e9mu. Celkov\u00fd radia\u010dn\u00ed vliv sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f je dnes odhadov\u00e1n hodnotou +1,6 (s rozp\u011bt\u00edm od +0,6 do +2,4) W.m<sup>\u20132<\/sup>, co\u017e je p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b p\u011btin\u00e1sobn\u00fd vliv v porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u00fa\u010dinkem zm\u011bn slune\u010dn\u00ed \u010dinnosti. Kombinovan\u00e9 p\u016fsoben\u00ed t\u0159\u00ed hlavn\u00edch sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f (viz v\u00fd\u0161e) dosahuje nyn\u00ed +2,3 W.m<sup>\u20132<\/sup> a trend n\u00e1r\u016fstu je v posledn\u00edch 200 letech velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed za posledn\u00edch deset tis\u00edc let a pouze za posledn\u00edch deset let se vliv radia\u010dn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinnosti CO<sub>2<\/sub> zv\u00fd\u0161il o 20 %. Antropogenn\u00ed aerosoly zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed ochlazov\u00e1n\u00ed syst\u00e9mu. Jejich souhrnn\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 \u00fa\u010dinnost je V pr\u016fm\u011bru \u20130,5 W.m<sup>\u20132<\/sup> a nep\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 \u00fa\u010dinnost prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm vlivu obla\u010dnosti \u20130,7 W.m<sup>\u20132<\/sup>. P\u0159esto\u017ee kvalitn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed in situ m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed, dopl\u0148ovan\u00e9 satelitn\u00edmi i dal\u0161\u00edmi pozemn\u00edmi m\u011b\u0159en\u00edmi, v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159isp\u011bly ke zlep\u0161en\u00ed odhad\u016f, je odhad vlivu aerosol\u016f st\u00e1le zat\u00ed\u017een zna\u010dn\u00fdmi nep\u0159esnostmi. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 radia\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvky troposf\u00e9rick\u00e9ho ozonu (O<sub>3<\/sub>) se pohybuj\u00ed kolem +0,35 W.m<sup>\u20132<\/sup> a skupiny halogenovan\u00fdch uhlovod\u00edk\u016f (HFC, PFC), v\u010detn\u011b fluoridu s\u00edrov\u00e9ho (SF<sub>6<\/sub>) +0,34 W.m<sup>\u20132<\/sup>. Radia\u010dn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinky zm\u011bn albeda zemsk\u00e9ho povrchu jako n\u00e1sledku dlouhodob\u00fdch zm\u011bn krajiny lze odhadovat v pr\u016fm\u011bru \u20130,2 W.m<sup>\u20132<\/sup> a vliv depozice pevn\u00fdch aerosolov\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1sti na sn\u011bhov\u00e9 pokr\u00fdvce +0,1 W.m<sup>\u20132<\/sup>.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>3. Pozorovan\u00e9 zm\u011bny klimatu<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Od p\u0159edchoz\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy z roku 2001 do\u0161lo rovn\u011b\u017e k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu zkvalitn\u011bn\u00ed poznatk\u016f o prostorov\u00fdch a \u010dasov\u00fdch zm\u011bn\u00e1ch, nebo\u0165 se zv\u00fd\u0161ila kvalita, obsah i objem datov\u00fdch soubor\u016f, byly z\u00edsk\u00e1ny informace Z nov\u00fdch geografick\u00fdch oblast\u00ed, do\u0161lo k potla\u010den\u00ed n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u016fvodn\u00edch nejistot a byly roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159eny a zkvalitn\u011bny m\u011b\u0159ic\u00ed postupy a metody. Oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed Zem\u011b je dnes ji\u017e Zcela evidentn\u00ed a nezpochybniteln\u00e9. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty vzduchu i oce\u00e1n\u016f st\u00e1le vzr\u016fstaj\u00ed, doch\u00e1z\u00ed k t\u00e1n\u00ed sn\u011bhu a ledu a zvy\u0161uj\u00ed se hladiny mo\u0159\u00ed a oce\u00e1n\u016f. Jeden\u00e1ct z posledn\u00edch dvan\u00e1cti let je mo\u017eno pova\u017eovat z glob\u00e1ln\u00edho hlediska za nejteplej\u0161\u00ed roky od poloviny 19. stolet\u00ed, kdy se V \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e za\u010dala uplat\u0148ovat teplotn\u00ed m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed. Aktualizovan\u00fd stolet\u00fd line\u00e1rn\u00ed trend (1906\u20132005) vykazuje n\u00e1r\u016fst teploty o 0,74 (0,56 a\u017e 0,92) \u00b0C, kter\u00fd je vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e podobn\u00fd trend (1901\u20132000), uv\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fd v p\u0159edchoz\u00ed zpr\u00e1v\u011b. V posledn\u00edch pades\u00e1ti letech vykazu.je pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd trend oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed hodnotu 0,13 \u00b0C za 10 let, co\u017e je hodnota p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b dvojn\u00e1sobn\u00e1 v porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s podobn\u00fdm trendem v posledn\u00edch sto letech. N\u00e1r\u016fst teplot vyvolan\u00fd zv\u00fd\u0161enou urbanizac\u00ed a rozvojem s\u00eddeln\u00edch aglomerac\u00ed je sice patrn\u00fd, ale na zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed teplot se projevuje pouze lok\u00e1ln\u011b a z glob\u00e1ln\u00edho hlediska je jej mo\u017eno st\u00e1le pova\u017eovat za zcela zanedbateln\u00fd.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Nov\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy aerologick\u00fdch a satelitn\u00edch m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee trendy oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00edzk\u00fdch a st\u0159edn\u00edch vrstev troposf\u00e9ry odpov\u00eddaj\u00ed podobn\u00fdm trend\u016fm v p\u0159\u00edzemn\u00ed Vrstv\u011b a v bl\u00edzkosti zemsk\u00e9ho povrchu a vykazuj\u00ed i podobnou konzistenci. Od osmdes\u00e1t\u00fdch let minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed se zv\u00fd\u0161il pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd obsah vodn\u00ed p\u00e1ry nad pevninou i oce\u00e1nem a podobn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst je patrn\u00fd i v horn\u00edch vrstv\u00e1ch troposf\u00e9ry. Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed vodn\u00edho obsahu odpov\u00edd\u00e1 dodatkov\u00e9mu mno\u017estv\u00ed vody, kter\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee teplej\u0161\u00ed vzduch obsahovat.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Oce\u00e1n absorbuje v\u00edce ne\u017e 80 % antropogenn\u00edho tepla p\u0159idan\u00e9ho do klimatick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, a proto se pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 teplota jejich vrchn\u00edch vrstev (do hloubky nejm\u00e9n\u011b 3 000 metr\u016f) rychle zvy\u0161uje. Oh\u0159ev vody a jej\u00ed n\u00e1sledn\u00e1 tepeln\u00e1 rozta\u017enost p\u0159isp\u00edvaly v obdob\u00ed 1961\u20132003 ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed hladin sv\u011btov\u00fdch mo\u0159\u00ed a oce\u00e1n\u016f ka\u017ed\u00fdm rokem v pr\u016fm\u011bru o 0,42 mm, ale pouze v posledn\u00edm desetilet\u00ed se tento n\u00e1r\u016fst urychlil a\u017e na 1,6 mm za rok. Pevninsk\u00e9 ledovce a sn\u011bhov\u00e1 pokr\u00fdvka vykazuj\u00ed \u00fabytky na obou polokoul\u00edch a jsou dal\u0161\u00edm zdrojem n\u00e1r\u016fstu objem\u016f vody v oce\u00e1nech. Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 v\u00fd\u0161ka mo\u0159sk\u00e9 hladiny rostla v letech 1961 a\u017e 2003 rychlost\u00ed 1,8 (1,3 a\u017e 2,3) mm za rok. Zat\u00edmco v letech 1993\u20132003 do\u0161lo ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed na zhruba 3,1 (2,4 a\u017e 3,8) mm.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">B\u011bhem posledn\u00edho stolet\u00ed se teplota arktick\u00fdch oblast\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161ila p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b na dvojn\u00e1sobek, by\u0165 v jednotliv\u00fdch desetilet\u00fdch obdob\u00edch teplotn\u00ed odchylky v\u00fdznamn\u011b kol\u00edsaj\u00ed. Tepl\u00e9 obdob\u00ed bylo zaznamen\u00e1no rovn\u011b\u017e v letech 1925\u20131945, ale s v\u00fdrazn\u011b odli\u0161n\u00fdm prostorov\u00fdm rozlo\u017een\u00edm. Satelitn\u00ed pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed dokl\u00e1daj\u00ed, \u017ee od roku 1978 se rozsah zaledn\u011bn\u00fdch ploch arktick\u00fdch mo\u0159\u00ed sni\u017euje ka\u017ed\u00fdch deset let o 2,7 %, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e letn\u00ed \u00fabytek zaledn\u011bn\u00fdch ploch je v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed (v pr\u016fm\u011bru 7,4 % za deset let, s rozptylem hodnot 5,0 a\u017e 9,8 %. To spole\u010dn\u011b s t\u00e1n\u00edm gr\u00f3nsk\u00fdch a antarktick\u00fdch ledovc\u016f v posledn\u00edch deseti letech p\u0159isp\u011blo k n\u00e1r\u016fstu hladin oce\u00e1n\u016f o dal\u0161\u00edch 0,41 mm za rok.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">P\u0159i \u00favah\u00e1ch o zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed hladin mo\u0159\u00ed a oce\u00e1n\u016f nen\u00ed zat\u00edm zcela z\u0159ejm\u00e9, jsou-li zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 hodnoty vyvol\u00e1ny p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b v\u00fdkyvy hodnot v jednotliv\u00fdch desetilet\u00edch nebo ji\u017e jde o statisticky v\u00fdznamn\u00fd trend. V\u00fdzna\u010dn\u00fd je v\u0161ak rozd\u00edl mezi v\u00fdsledn\u00fdmi hodnotami pro posledn\u00ed dv\u011b stolet\u00ed, proto\u017ee ve 20. stolet\u00ed byl zaznamen\u00e1n pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst hladin o 11 (12\u201322) cm v porovn\u00e1n\u00edm s \u00fadaji pro 19. stolet\u00ed, od osmdes\u00e1t\u00fdch let minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed se teploty v\u011b\u010dn\u011b zmrzl\u00e9 p\u016fdy v Arktid\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161ily a\u017e o 3 \u00b0C a z\u00e1rove\u0148 se na severn\u00ed polokouli od po\u010d\u00e1tku 20. stolet\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017eil jej\u00ed maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed rozsah o 7 % (kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed rozsahu b\u011bhem roku).<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">l p\u0159es svoji zna\u010dnou prostorovou i \u010dasovou prom\u011bnlivost se projevuj\u00ed zm\u011bny i ve sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch re\u017eimech. V\u00fdznamn\u011b nap\u0159. vzrostly sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00e9 \u00fahrny ve v\u00fdchodn\u00edch \u010d\u00e1stech Severn\u00ed i Ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriky, v severn\u00ed Evrop\u011b a severn\u00ed a centr\u00e1ln\u00ed Asii, a naopak se sn\u00ed\u017eily v oblasti Sahelu, ve St\u0159edomo\u0159\u00ed a v ji\u017en\u00edch \u010d\u00e1stech Afriky a Asie. V ostatn\u00edch oblastech zat\u00edm nebyly statisticky v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 dlouhodob\u00e9 trendy pozorov\u00e1ny. V posledn\u00edch t\u0159iceti letech se v tropick\u00fdch a subtropick\u00fdch oblastech vyskytovala velmi intenzivn\u00ed a dlouhotrvaj\u00edc\u00ed sucha, zap\u0159\u00ed\u010din\u011bn\u00e1 vysok\u00fdmi teplotami i v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm poklesem sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch \u00fahrn\u016f. Se suchy jsou spojov\u00e1ny i zm\u011bny povrchov\u00e9 teploty oce\u00e1n\u016f, zm\u011bny charakteru atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulace a ub\u00fdv\u00e1n\u00ed sn\u011bhov\u00e9 pokr\u00fdvky. Celkov\u00e9 oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed vede na \u0159ad\u011b m\u00edst ke zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdparu a n\u00e1sledn\u011b i ke zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010detnosti v\u00fdskytu velmi siln\u00fdch a intenzivn\u00edch sr\u00e1\u017eek.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V posledn\u00edch 50 letech se v\u00fdrazn\u011b m\u011bn\u00ed rozlo\u017eeni extr\u00e9mn\u00edch teplot. Klesaj\u00ed po\u010dty chladn\u00fdch dn\u016f a noc\u00ed, stejn\u011b jako po\u010dty mrazov\u00fdch dn\u016f, a naopak nar\u016fst\u00e1 po\u010det tepl\u00fdch dn\u016f a noc\u00ed a zvy\u0161uj\u00ed se \u010detnosti v\u00fdskytu vln velmi vysok\u00fdch teplot (heat waves, hot spells). Zat\u00edm nen\u00ed prok\u00e1z\u00e1na z\u0159eteln\u00e1 tendence zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed po\u010dtu tropick\u00fdch cyklon. Satelitn\u00ed pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed sice od sedmdes\u00e1t\u00fdch let v souvislosti s\u00a0pozorovan\u00fdm oteplov\u00e1n\u00edm horn\u00edch hladin oce\u00e1n\u016f v tropick\u00fdch oblastech nazna\u010duj\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trend n\u00e1r\u016fstu po\u010dtu intenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch tropick\u00fdch cyklon, ale st\u00e1le p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed nejistoty spojen\u00e9 s\u00a0kvalitou informac\u00ed a dat, a to zejm\u00e9na z doby, kdy je\u0161t\u011b nebyla k dispozici satelitn\u00ed m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed. V posledn\u00edch dvaceti letech se v\u00fdznamn\u011bji nem\u011bn\u00ed denn\u00ed teplotn\u00ed amplitudy, nebo\u0165 jak denn\u00ed, tak i no\u010dn\u00ed hodnoty se vcelku systematicky zvy\u0161uj\u00ed. V antarktick\u00fdch oblastech se m\u00edrn\u011b zesiluje zaledn\u011bn\u00ed, ale zm\u011bny vykazuj\u00ed zna\u010dnou sezonn\u00ed i region\u00e1ln\u00ed prom\u011bnlivost, kter\u00e1 souvis\u00ed s horizont\u00e1ln\u011b velmi nehomogenn\u00edmi zm\u011bnami teploty na kontinentu. Rovn\u011b\u017e zat\u00edm nen\u00ed dostatek pr\u016fkazn\u00fdch materi\u00e1l\u016f k tomu, aby byly potvrzeny statisticky v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 trendy zm\u011bn velkoprostorov\u00e9 meridion\u00e1ln\u00ed oce\u00e1nick\u00e9 cirkulace a dal\u0161\u00edch jev\u016f extr\u00e9mn\u00edho po\u010das\u00ed (lok\u00e1ln\u00ed torn\u00e1da, krupobit\u00ed, blesky \u010di p\u00edse\u010dn\u00e9 bou\u0159e).<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>4. P\u0159\u00ed\u010diny klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Zpr\u00e1va konstatuje a z\u00e1rove\u0148 zd\u016fvod\u0148uje, pro\u010d je dnes ji\u017e velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee sklen\u00edkov\u00e9 plyny antropogenn\u00edho p\u016fvodu jsou od poloviny 20. stolet\u00ed hlavn\u00edm p\u016fvodcem n\u00e1r\u016fstu pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty. Prokazatelnost vlivu \u010dlov\u011bka se postupn\u011b z glob\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b p\u0159esunuje i do region\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b a p\u016fsob\u00ed na zm\u011bny charakteru atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulace a v\u00fdskyt n\u011bkter\u00fdch extr\u00e9mn\u00edch po\u010dasov\u00fdch jev\u016f. Je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee sklen\u00edkov\u00e9 plyny jsou samy o sob\u011b p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho oh\u0159evu atmosf\u00e9ry, nebo\u0165 atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 aerosoly sope\u010dn\u00e9ho a antropogenn\u00edho p\u016fvodu tento oh\u0159ev pon\u011bkud sni\u017euj\u00ed na sou\u010dasn\u00e9 Zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 hodnoty. Zpr\u00e1va rovn\u011b\u017e konstatuje, \u017ee je velmi nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by byly zm\u011bny v\u00a0posledn\u00edch pades\u00e1ti letech vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1ny pouze nevynucenou p\u0159irozenou prom\u011bnlivost\u00ed klimatu. S v\u00fdjimkou Antarktidy se zm\u011bny projevuj\u00ed ji\u017e na v\u0161ech kontinentech.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Probl\u00e9my p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed v hodnov\u011brn\u00fdch simulac\u00edch zm\u011bn a statistick\u00e9 prokazatelnosti pozorovan\u00fdch zm\u011bn v\u00a0oblastech mal\u00fdch m\u011b\u0159\u00edtek. Podobn\u011b nelze v mal\u00fdch oblastech zat\u00edm ani prok\u00e1zat p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 vazby mezi n\u00e1r\u016fstem emis\u00ed sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f a zm\u011bnami teplotn\u00edch charakteristik, pop\u0159. dal\u0161\u00edch klimatologick\u00fdch charakteristik. Antropogenn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny lze pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b spat\u0159ovat ve zm\u011bn\u00e1ch atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulace, kter\u00e9 ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed dr\u00e1hy \u0159\u00edd\u00edc\u00edch cyklon, trasy bou\u0159kov\u00fdch oblak\u016f, v\u00fdskyt oblast\u00ed siln\u00fdch v\u011btr\u016f \u010di teplotn\u00edch anom\u00e1li\u00ed na obou polokoul\u00edch.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>5. Projekce klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Hlavn\u00ed posun od p\u0159edchoz\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 ve v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm mno\u017estv\u00ed proveden\u00fdch modelov\u00fdch simulac\u00ed, kter\u00e9 spolu s nov\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edstupy umo\u017enily roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it z\u00e1kladnu pro stanoven\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho oteplen\u00ed. K modelov\u00e1n\u00ed zm\u011bn byly pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1ny posledn\u00ed emisn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e SRES [3] pro obdob\u00ed 2000\u20132100, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e jejich v\u011brohodnost nebyla p\u0159i prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed modelov\u00fdch simulac\u00ed zpochyb\u0148ov\u00e1na.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Pro p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed dv\u011b desetilet\u00ed soubor sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f ud\u00e1v\u00e1 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed teploty asi o 0,2 \u00b0C za 10 let oproti obdob\u00ed 1980\u20131999. Pokud by do\u0161lo ke stabilizaci koncentrace sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f na \u00farovni roku 2000, potom by se hodnota odhadu sn\u00ed\u017eila na 0,1 \u00b0C za 10 let. Od prvn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy IPCC z roku 1990 se odhady trendu n\u00e1r\u016fstu teploty pro obdob\u00ed 1990\u20132005 zv\u00fd\u0161ily o 0,15 a\u017e 0,3 \u00b0C za 10 let, co\u017e je hodnota srovnateln\u00e1 s\u00a0pozorovanou hodnotou 0,2 \u00b0C za 10 let pro toto obdob\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst emis\u00ed se sou\u010dasn\u00fdm nebo dokonce vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm trendem by vedl k dal\u0161\u00edmu n\u00e1r\u016fstu teploty, kter\u00fd by byl velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e n\u00e1r\u016fsty dosud pozorovan\u00e9. Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst do konce 21. stolet\u00ed bude v\u00fdrazn\u011b z\u00e1viset na pou\u017eit\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i. Pro \u0161est pou\u017eit\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f SRES budou hodnoty v\u00fdsledn\u00e9ho nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed teploty ve \u00b0C oproti obdob\u00ed 1980\u20131999 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b takov\u00e9, jak je uvedeno v tab. 2.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Obdobn\u00e9 n\u00e1r\u016fsty hladin oce\u00e1n\u016f pro pou\u017eit\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e se budou pohybovat v rozmez\u00ed od 19 do 58 cm, co\u017e jsou hodnoty naopak nepatrn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e uv\u00e1d\u011bla p\u0159edchoz\u00ed zpr\u00e1va z roku 2001. Hlavn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou je, \u017ee v uplynul\u00fdch letech do\u0161lo ke zp\u0159esn\u011bn\u00ed velikosti p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku tepeln\u00e9 rozta\u017enosti objem\u016f vody, kter\u00e1 se na n\u00e1r\u016fstu bude i nad\u00e1le pod\u00edlet v\u00edce ne\u017e dv\u011bma t\u0159etinami. I v budoucnu se bude projevovat prostorov\u00e1 nehomogenita uv\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fdch odhad\u016f (nap\u0159. vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed oteplen\u00ed je t\u0159eba o\u010dek\u00e1vat nad pevninou a ve vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch zem\u011bpisn\u00fdch \u0161\u00ed\u0159k\u00e1ch Severn\u00ed polokoule, ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed nad ji\u017en\u00edmi oce\u00e1ny a Severn\u00edm Atlantikem, apod.). Pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst teploty povede ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed schopnost Zemsk\u00e9ho povrchu a oce\u00e1n\u016f pohlcovat C0<sub>2<\/sub> a jeho nar\u016fstaj\u00edc\u00ed emise budou jeho koncentrace v atmosf\u00e9\u0159e d\u00e1le zvy\u0161ovat. N\u00e1r\u016fst emis\u00ed povede t\u00e9\u017e k n\u00e1r\u016fstu okyselov\u00e1n\u00ed oce\u00e1n\u016f a jejich hodnoty pH se do konce 21. stolet\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed o 0,14\u20130,35 pH jednotek, zat\u00edmco dosavadn\u00ed v\u00fdsledn\u00fd pokles pH Vody v oce\u00e1nech \u010dinil od druh\u00e9 poloviny 18. stolet\u00ed pouze 0,1.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V d\u016fsledku nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed teploty se bude podle v\u0161ech sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f na v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b ploch sni\u017eovat v\u00fd\u0161ka i rozsah sn\u011bhov\u00e9 pokr\u00fdvky a bude nad\u00e1le pokra\u010dovat t\u00e1n\u00ed permafrostu, stejn\u011b jako pevninsk\u00fdch, arktick\u00fdch a \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b i antarktick\u00fdch ledovc\u016f. Je velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee se st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji budou vyskytovat obdob\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u011b vysok\u00fdch teplot \u010di epizody p\u0159\u00edvalov\u00fdch sr\u00e1\u017eek. M\u011bla by postupn\u011b klesat \u010detnost v\u00fdskytu tropick\u00fdch cyklon, ale na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee budou nab\u00fdvat na svoj\u00ed intenzit\u011b. Oproti z\u00e1v\u011br\u016fm p\u0159edchoz\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy se v\u00fdznamn\u011b zp\u0159esnily odhady plo\u0161n\u00e9ho rozlo\u017een\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eek a je velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee ve vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch zem\u011bpisn\u00fdch \u0161\u00ed\u0159k\u00e1ch budou nar\u016fstat a v subtropick\u00fdch oblastech nad pevninami klesat. Je rovn\u011b\u017e velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017de bude pokra\u010dovat oslabov\u00e1n\u00ed atlantick\u00e9 meridion\u00e1ln\u00ed cirkulace, kter\u00e1 by se mohla do konce 21. stolet\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017eit o jednu \u010dtvrtinu. Je ale velmi nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by v pr\u016fb\u011bhu tohoto stolet\u00ed nastala jej\u00ed n\u00e1hl\u00e1 a nevratn\u00e1 zm\u011bna: pro podrobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed stanoven\u00ed dlouhodob\u00fdch odhad\u016f zm\u011bn atlantick\u00e9 meridion\u00e1ln\u00ed cirkulace zat\u00edm nen\u00ed dostatek podklad\u016f.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>6. Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Prvn\u00ed d\u00edl nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy IPCC Mezivl\u00e1dn\u00edho panelu o zm\u011bn\u011b klimatu ve sv\u00e9m z\u00e1v\u011bru uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee zm\u011bny a s\u00a0nimi spojen\u00e9 zp\u011btn\u00e9 vazby budou pokra\u010dovat je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bkolik stolet\u00ed po dosa\u017een\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 stabilizace st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b koncentrac\u00ed sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f v atmosf\u00e9\u0159e. Aby bylo mo\u017eno dos\u00e1hnout stabilizace koncentrac\u00ed emis\u00ed sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f nap\u0159. na \u00farovni 450 ppm nebo 1000 ppm (rozptyl c\u00edlov\u00fdch hodnot sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f SRES), bylo by nutn\u00e9 b\u011bhem 21. stolet\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017eit emise sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f o 105 a\u017e 300 GtC. resp. 165 a\u017e 510 GtC. V\u0161echny v\u00fdstupy ze sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f Se Zat\u00edm shoduj\u00ed na tom, \u017ee antropogenn\u00ed emise b\u011bhem 21. stolet\u00ed zcela ur\u010dit\u011b p\u0159isp\u011bj\u00ed k nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edmu oteplen\u00ed planety \u010di n\u00e1r\u016fstu hladin oce\u00e1n\u016f, ke kter\u00e9mu Za posledn\u00ed tis\u00edcilet\u00ed do\u0161lo.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Z\u0159eteln\u011b nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm z\u00e1v\u011brem t\u00e9to zpr\u00e1vy je, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina n\u00e1r\u016fstu pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch glob\u00e1ln\u00edch teplot je velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vyvol\u00e1na zv\u00fd\u0161enou koncentrac\u00ed antropogenn\u00edch sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f. Takto formulovan\u00e9 tvrzen\u00ed stav\u00ed spolehlivost v\u00fdroku na \u00farove\u0148 vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 90 % a posunuje ji oproti zpr\u00e1v\u011b z roku 2001 kvantitativn\u011b v\u00fd\u0161e (d\u0159\u00edve 67 %). P\u0159esto\u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 koncentrace p\u0159\u00edmo souvis\u00ed s vlivem \u010dlov\u011bka, ani z\u00a0up\u0159esn\u011bn\u00e9 spolehlivosti v\u00fdroku nelze dovozovat \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 kvantitativn\u00ed stanoven\u00ed pod\u00edlu \u010dlov\u011bka na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed a n\u00e1sledn\u011b na klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b. Je i nad\u00e1le t\u0159eba se spokojit s t\u00edm, \u017ee pod\u00edl \u010dlov\u011bka existuje, \u017ee je velmi v\u00fdznamn\u00fd a \u017ee jej nelze podce\u0148ovat. Nepochybn\u00fd vliv lidsk\u00e9 \u010dinnosti se roz\u0161i\u0159uje i na dal\u0161\u00ed aspekty klimatu, v\u010detn\u011b oh\u0159evu oce\u00e1n\u016f, teplotn\u00edch extr\u00e9m\u016f a charakteru atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulace.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Rizik\u016fm dopad\u016f klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny a mo\u017enostem sni\u017eov\u00e1ni rizik zp\u016fsoben\u00fdch klimatickou zm\u011bnou budou v\u011bnov\u00e1ny dal\u0161\u00ed dva d\u00edly \u010ctvrt\u00e9 hodnot\u00edc\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy IPCC, o kter\u00fdch budou \u010dten\u00e1\u0159i Meteorologick\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v v pr\u016fb\u011bhu tohoto roku je\u0161t\u011b informov\u00e1ni.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dodatek<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Ve dnech 2. \u2013 6. dubna 2007 prob\u011bhlo v Bruselu 8. plen\u00e1rn\u00ed zased\u00e1n\u00ed pracovn\u00ed skupiny WG II IPCC. Projednalo druhou \u010d\u00e1st \u010ctvrt\u00e9 hodnot\u00edc\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy IPCC (AR4) <em>Climate Change 2007: CIimate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability<\/em> s d\u016frazem na obsah Shrnut\u00ed pro politiky, kter\u00e9 obsahuje souhrn nejz\u00e1sadn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f zpr\u00e1vy. Obsah shrnut\u00ed je uveden v pracovn\u00ed verzi p\u0159ed z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dnou editac\u00ed na <a style=\"color: #003366;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/SPM6avr07.pdf\">http:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/SPM6avr07.pdf<\/a>, vlastn\u00ed texty budou uve\u0159ejn\u011bny na <a style=\"color: #003366;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\">http:\/\/www.ipcc.ch<\/a> b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Zpr\u00e1va shrnuje zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 a zdokumentovan\u00e9 dopady klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny na stav fyzik\u00e1ln\u00edch a biologick\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f a v n\u00e1vaznosti na v\u00fdsledky prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti AR4 poskytuje i odhady jejich dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdvoje do konce 21. stolet\u00ed. Zm\u011bny se podle zpr\u00e1vy projevuj\u00ed v \u0159ad\u011b p\u0159irozen\u00fdch ekosyst\u00e9m\u016f, ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed potravinov\u00fd \u0159et\u011bzec a Zejm\u00e9na celosv\u011btovou vodn\u00ed bilanci. Za p\u0159edpokladu n\u00e1r\u016fstu teploty o v\u00edce ne\u017e 1,5\u20132,5 \u00b0C bude ovlivn\u011bno 20\u201330 % rostlinn\u00fdch a \u017eivo\u010di\u0161n\u00fdch druh\u016f a stovky mili\u00f3n\u016f obyvatel planety budou str\u00e1dat nedostatkem vody. Ze zpr\u00e1vy vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee daleko v\u00edce ne\u017e dosud je pot\u0159eba se zab\u00fdvat i problematikou adapta\u010dn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00edch, v na\u0161ich podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch zejm\u00e9na na sektory ovlivn\u011bn\u00e9 pr\u00e1v\u011b nedostatkem vody.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Literatura<\/em><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">[1] Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, IPCC 2001, <a style=\"color: #003366;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.grida.no\/climate\/ipcc_tar\/wg1\/index.htm\">http:\/\/www.grida.no\/climate\/ipcc_tar\/wg1\/index.htm<\/a><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">[2] Climate Change 2001: The Physical Science Basis, IPCC 2007 (v tisku) <a style=\"color: #003366;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/SPM2feb07.pdf\">http:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/SPM2feb07.pdf<\/a><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">[3] Emissions Scenarios, IPCC, 2000, <a style=\"color: #003366;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ipcc.chlpub\/sres-e.pdf\">http:\/\/www.ipcc.chlpub\/sres-e.pdf<\/a><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/sites\/default\/files\/IMG_0013.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Tab.1 P\u0159ehled pou\u017eit\u00e9 pravd\u011bpodobnostn\u00ed terminologie<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/sites\/default\/files\/IMG_0015.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Tab. 2 Emisn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e SRES<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/sites\/default\/files\/IMG_0017.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Tab. 3 Projekce n\u00e1r\u016fstu glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty a hladin mo\u0159\u00ed na konci 21. stolet\u00ed v porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s obdob\u00edm 1980\u20131999<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Lektor (Reviewer) RNDr. L. Metelka, Ph.D.<\/em><\/span><\/p><p class=\"rteright\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Jan Pretel, MZ 2007\/2, ro\u010dn\u00edk 60, str. 33\u201336<\/em><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ve dnech 30. dubna \u2013 4. kv\u011btna 2007 se konalo v Bangkoku 9. zased\u00e1n\u00ed pracovn\u00ed skupiny WG III Mezivl\u00e1dn\u00edho panelu ke klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b, kter\u00e9 projednalo t\u0159et\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st \u010ctvrt\u00e9 hodnot\u00edc\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-11618","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/11618","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11618"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/11618\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11622,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/11618\/revisions\/11622"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11618"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}