{"id":11017,"date":"2024-12-30T17:44:03","date_gmt":"2024-12-30T16:44:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/?page_id=11017"},"modified":"2024-12-30T17:45:21","modified_gmt":"2024-12-30T16:45:21","slug":"skepticky-ekolog-jaky-je-skutecny-stav-sveta","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/skepticky-ekolog-jaky-je-skutecny-stav-sveta\/","title":{"rendered":"Skeptick\u00fd ekolog: Jak\u00fd je skute\u010dn\u00fd stav sv\u011bta?"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"11017\" class=\"elementor elementor-11017\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-f9c84a0 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"f9c84a0\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-9659141\" data-id=\"9659141\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f054ce8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f054ce8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.17.0 - 08-11-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p><strong><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Autor Bj\u00f8rn Lomborg. Praha: Doko\u0159\u00e1n 2006. 587 s. ISBN 80-7363-059-1. Cena: 587 K\u010d.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Kniha Skeptick\u00fd ekolog (The Skeptical Environmentalist) d\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho statistika Bj\u00f8rna Lomborga, kter\u00e1 sv\u00fdm vyd\u00e1n\u00edm vyvolala v environment\u00e1ln\u00edch kruz\u00edch velk\u00e9 pozdvi\u017een\u00ed, vy\u0161la poprv\u00e9 v D\u00e1nsku (Forlaget Centrum A\/S, 1998), v angli\u010dtin\u011b j\u00ed vydalo Cambridge University Press (2001) a v \u010desk\u00e9m p\u0159ekladu nakladatelstv\u00ed Doko\u0159\u00e1n ve spolupr\u00e1ci s Liber\u00e1ln\u00edm institutem a za pomoci Centra pro ekonomiku a politiku a energetick\u00e9 skupiny Czech Coal (2006).<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Jej\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed my\u0161lenkou je, \u017ee \u201e&#8230; sv\u011bt na tom nen\u00ed zdaleka tak \u0161patn\u011b, jak v m\u00e9di\u00edch bez ust\u00e1n\u00ed sly\u0161\u00edme, jeho stav se nezhor\u0161uje, ale naopak v z\u00e1sad\u011b zlep\u0161uje&#8230;\u201c. P\u016fvodn\u011b kniha vze\u0161la ze snahy prov\u011b\u0159it a pokud mo\u017eno vyvr\u00e1tit n\u011bkter\u00e1 ekologicky optimistick\u00e1 tvrzen\u00ed, kter\u00e1 autorovi, jako b\u00fdval\u00e9mu \u010dlenu organizace Greenpeace, nezn\u011bla v\u017edy zcela re\u00e1ln\u011b. Postupem doby ale do\u0161el k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee proroctv\u00ed zk\u00e1zy sv\u011bta se op\u00edraj\u00ed o nep\u0159esn\u00e9 a z kontextu vytr\u017een\u00e9 informace a \u00fadaje.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Na t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u0161esti stech str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch Lomborg pod\u00e1v\u00e1 \u010dten\u00e1\u0159\u016fm sv\u016fj pohled na v\u00fdvoj sv\u011bta a naz\u00fdv\u00e1 jej pohledem \u201eskeptick\u00e9ho ekologa\u201c. \u201eEkologa\u201c proto, proto\u017ee mu z\u00e1Ie\u017e\u00ed na Zemi i na zdrav\u00ed a blahobytu budouc\u00edch generac\u00ed a \u201eskeptick\u00e9ho&#8217;, nebo\u0165 mu na tom v\u0161em z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed tak mnoho, \u017ee se nechce projevovat jako zast\u00e1nce pesimistick\u00fdch ani optimistick\u00fdch m\u00fdt\u016f. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, s\u00e1m se tak ozna\u010duje za nestrann\u00e9ho a na pomoc si bere statistiku. \u0158\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee \u201e&#8230;statistika m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt hluboce vzru\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed, proto\u017ee konfrontuje na\u0161e m\u00fdty s faktick\u00fdmi \u00fadaji a umo\u017e\u0148uje n\u00e1m vid\u011bt sv\u011bt jasn\u011bji &#8230;\u201c. S t\u00edm lze obecn\u011b souhlasit, kdyby t\u0159eba v dosti rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 kapitole zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na probl\u00e9my glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed (tj. n\u00e1zev kapitoly) sice r\u00e1doby skryt\u00fdm, ale p\u0159esto mnohdy a\u017e vt\u00edrav\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 statistiku ke zleh\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed probl\u00e9mu a vz\u00e1jemn\u00fdch souvislost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Pokud se zam\u011b\u0159\u00edme zejm\u00e9na na kapitolu o glob\u00e1ln\u00edm oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed, pak Lomborg svoje informace porovn\u00e1v\u00e1 s \u00fadaji T\u0159et\u00ed hodnot\u00edc\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy IPCC (TAR) z roku 2001 zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0t\u011bch \u010d\u00e1stech, v nich\u017e sama zpr\u00e1va hovo\u0159\u00ed o v\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch nejistot\u00e1ch \u010di nedostate\u010dn\u011b podlo\u017een\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u00edch. Nejsem si t\u0159eba jist\u00fd, pochopil-li autor v\u016fbec podstatu emisn\u00edch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f SRES, jejich v\u00fdznam i mo\u017enosti vyu\u017eit\u00ed pro projekce dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdvoje klimatu. Z \u0159ady v\u00fdrok\u016f v odstavci Rekapitulace se mi zd\u00e1, \u017ee probl\u00e9my m\u00e1 i se smyslem modelov\u00fdch projekc\u00ed a o p\u0159edstav\u011b o struktu\u0159e model\u016f ji\u017e ani nemluv\u011b. Jinak by asi t\u011b\u017eko mohl tvrdit, \u017ee \u201e&#8230;IPCC v nov\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u00edch v\u00fdslovn\u011b odm\u00edt\u00e1 p\u0159edpov\u00eddat budoucnost, a m\u00edsto toho p\u0159edlo\u017eil vypr\u00e1v\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh\u016f za pomoci po\u010d\u00edta\u010d\u016f&#8230;&#8221; \u010di \u201e&#8230;IPCC ozna\u010duje normativn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e za takov\u00e9, u nich\u017e by bylo \u017e\u00e1douc\u00ed, aby se naplnily&#8230;\u201c apod. Nen\u00ed ani pravda, \u017ee \u201e\u2026 politick\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed zabr\u00e1nilo IPCC zkoumat souhrn n\u00e1klad\u016f a v\u00fdnos\u016f z glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed a donutilo jej zam\u011b\u0159it se m\u00edsto toho na zp\u016fsoby omezov\u00e1n\u00ed emis\u00ed sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f&#8230;\u201c. T\u0159et\u00ed d\u00edl TAR u v\u0161ech zp\u016fsob\u016f omezov\u00e1n\u00ed emis\u00ed n\u00e1kladov\u00e9 polo\u017eky uv\u00e1d\u00ed a umo\u017e\u0148uje tak prov\u00e1d\u011bt porovn\u00e1n\u00ed. Kdo si v\u0161echny d\u00edly TAR p\u0159e\u010dte podrobn\u011b, ten zjist\u00ed, \u017ee IPCC nikde neklade striktn\u00ed d\u016fraz na omezov\u00e1n\u00ed emis\u00ed jako odstran\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny. Dalo by se polemizovat i s \u0159adou dal\u0161\u00edch Lomborgov\u00fdch v\u00fdrok\u016f, ale to by vydalo na n\u011bkolik str\u00e1nek textu. P\u0159itom by se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 p\u0159esn\u011b toho zp\u016fsobu, kter\u00fd \u201eprorok\u016fm zk\u00e1zy sv\u011bta\u201c na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b vyt\u00fdk\u00e1. Dosti \u010dasto se toti\u017e op\u00edr\u00e1 o nep\u0159esn\u00e9 a z kontextu vytr\u017een\u00e9 informace a statistick\u00e9 \u00fadaje a tak stejn\u011b jako Winston Churchill, i on \u201ev\u011b\u0159\u00ed jen t\u00e9 statistice, kterou si s\u00e1m zfal\u0161uje\u201c..<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Kniha se stala zaj\u00edmavou a pro n\u011bkter\u00e9 okruhy \u010dten\u00e1\u0159\u016f p\u0159ita\u017elivou zejm\u00e9na z d\u016fvod\u016f Lomborgovy interpretace n\u00e1zor\u016f na sou\u010dasn\u00fd stav sv\u011bta a z pohledu t\u00e9to recenze zejm\u00e9na na dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj klimatu. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed zm\u011bn i jejich modelov\u00e9 projekce do budoucna dostate\u010dn\u011b dokumentuj\u00ed, \u017ee zm\u011bny zde byly, jsou a budou a \u017ee se na nich \u010dlov\u011bk jist\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem pod\u00edl\u00ed. Jak p\u0159esn\u011b velik\u00fdm, to zat\u00edm odpov\u011bdn\u011b je\u0161t\u011b \u0159\u00edci nedok\u00e1\u017eeme. Jist\u00fd pokrok v pozn\u00e1n\u00ed u\u010dinila t\u0159eba prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st \u010ctvrt\u00e9 hodnot\u00edc\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy IPCC z roku 2007 (WGI\/AR4), p\u0159esto v\u0161ak \u0159ada nejistot st\u00e1le je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1. Ka\u017ed\u00fd pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fd model (a nemus\u00ed to b\u00fdt jenom model klimatick\u00fd) m\u00e1 svoje omezen\u00ed, se kter\u00fdmi je schopen v danou chv\u00edli pracovat. Podobn\u00e1 omezen\u00ed maj\u00ed i modely jin\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 modely nevyj\u00edmaje. Pokud jsou auto\u0159i model\u016f dostate\u010dn\u011b odpov\u011bdn\u00ed, pak takov\u00e1 omezen\u00ed p\u0159izn\u00e1vaj\u00ed a nezast\u00edraj\u00ed je. Jak si m\u016f\u017eeme p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst v podrobn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1v\u011b WGI\/AR4 \u010di v p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00fdch odkazech, auto\u0159i klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f tak dosti d\u016fsledn\u011b \u010din\u00ed. I proto pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed dnes ji\u017e standardn\u00edch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f SRES, kter\u00e9 zcela jasn\u011b \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed, za jak\u00fdch p\u0159edpoklad\u016f mohou modelov\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky nastat.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Asi m\u00e1lokoho ze skute\u010dn\u00e9 v\u011bdeck\u00e9 klimatick\u00e9 komunity m\u016f\u017eeme za\u0159adit do kategorie \u201eekologick\u00fdch pesimist\u016f\u201c, do kter\u00e9 Lomborg p\u0159i\u0159azuje ty, kte\u0159\u00ed vid\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj sv\u011btov\u00e9ho klimatu jako jednozna\u010dn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek ke zk\u00e1ze sv\u011bta. Pokud se tak n\u011bkdy ale stane, pak Za to pov\u011bt\u0161in\u011b mohou m\u00e9dia. Pro n\u011b je, bohu\u017eel, zaj\u00edmav\u00fd ka\u017ed\u00fd meteorologicky extr\u00e9m a katastrofick\u00e9 vid\u011bn\u00ed sv\u011bta je zaujme daleko v\u00edce ne\u017e realistick\u00fd pohled. Asi je to vcelku norm\u00e1ln\u00ed, proto\u017ee se takto nechovaj\u00ed ani zdaleka jenom na\u0161e m\u00e9dia.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Jeliko\u017e \u00fa\u010del sv\u011bt\u00ed prost\u0159edky, tak se t\u0159eba pou\u017eije ten nejpesimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvojov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 a bez jak\u00e9hokoliv podrobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho vysv\u011btlov\u00e1n\u00ed se prohl\u00e1s\u00ed za stav klimatu ke konci stolet\u00ed. A kdy\u017e se to v\u0161echno d\u00e1 do souvislosti s emisemi sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou, jednozna\u010dnou p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c, pak m\u00e1 v\u011bda pom\u011brn\u011b rychle zad\u011bl\u00e1no na pr\u016f\u0161vih. Tak se uk\u00e1\u017ee, \u017ee, jsou to p\u0159ece v\u011bdci, kdo prorokuj\u00ed zk\u00e1zu sv\u011bta\u201c! Z\u00e1hy pak p\u0159ijde se svoj\u00ed knihou Bj\u00f8rn Lomborg, pou\u017eije (nebo snad \u00ed zneu\u017eije?) statistick\u00e1 data, d\u00e1 je do vhodn\u00fdch a pot\u0159ebn\u00fdch souvislost\u00ed a zdokumentuje, \u017ee za ekologick\u00fdm pesimismem pr\u00e1v\u011b stoj\u00ed nedostate\u010dn\u011b podlo\u017een\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry v\u011bdc\u016f tedy stejn\u00fdch v\u011bdc\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed chv\u00edl\u00ed prorokovali zk\u00e1zu sv\u011bta&#8230;<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Odtud je pak u\u017e jenom nepatrn\u00fd kr\u016f\u010dek k tomu, aby se na sc\u00e9n\u011b objevili notori\u010dt\u00ed \u201eekologi\u010dt\u00ed optimist\u00e9\u201c hl\u00e1saj\u00edc\u00ed, \u017ee ,,&#8230;p\u0159\u00edroda si porad\u00ed sama a zbytek jsou jen v\u00fdhr\u016f\u017eky (levi\u010d\u00e1ck\u00fdch) nevl\u00e1dn\u00edch organizac\u00ed a zelen\u00fdch&#8230;\u201c. V na\u0161\u00ed zab\u011bhnut\u011bj\u0161\u00ed terminologii je v\u011bt\u0161inou naz\u00fdv\u00e1me \u201eklimaskeptiky\u201c. Ani\u017e by se odbornou podstatou probl\u00e9mu v\u016fbec zab\u00fdvali, za\u0161t\u00edt\u00ed se touto knihou a probl\u00e9m klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny zcela odm\u00edtnou. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed z nich, aby se je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce zviditelnili, k tomu jenom dodaj\u00ed, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dnou zm\u011bnu \u010di jej\u00ed d\u016fsledky opravdu nikdy nevid\u011bli\u201c ! Co na tom, \u017ee \u0159ada d\u016fkaz\u016f o m\u011bn\u00edc\u00edm se klimatu zde je. Pry\u010d s nimi, nebo\u0165 stejn\u011b je to v\u0161echno jenom \u201eoteplovac\u00ed n\u00e1bo\u017eenstv\u00ed\u201c, kter\u00e9 nestoj\u00ed za pozornost! A pr\u00e1v\u011b zde d\u011bl\u00e1 Lomborgova kniha klimatologii skute\u010dn\u011b medv\u011bd\u00ed slu\u017ebu.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b V\u0161ak knihu v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b neodsuzuji a je dobr\u00e9 ji vz\u00edt do rukou. Je toti\u017e zdrojem \u0159ady zaj\u00edmav\u00fdch souvislost\u00ed a pom\u00e1h\u00e1 ke konfrontaci vlastn\u00edch pohled\u016f na sou\u010dasn\u00fd stav sv\u011bta a jeho v\u00fdhledy i v jin\u00fdch oborech, ne\u017e je pouze ono glob\u00e1ln\u00ed oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed. Pokud se do n\u00ed za\u010dtou lid\u00e9 s rozhledem a p\u0159ehledem, \u010di jedinci se snahou dozv\u011bd\u011bt se n\u011bco v\u00edc a dop\u00e1trat se maxima pravdy, pak je to kniha ur\u010dit\u011b u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e1. Ka\u017ed\u00fd si s\u00e1m m\u016f\u017ee na uv\u00e1d\u011bn\u00e9 souvislosti ud\u011blat sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed n\u00e1zor a oba extr\u00e9mn\u00ed pohledy na sv\u011bt m\u00edrnit.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m, \u017ee asi v\u011bt\u0161ina \u010dten\u00e1\u0159\u016f se spolu se mnou p\u0159iklon\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e ke skupin\u011b s optimistick\u00fdm naz\u00edr\u00e1n\u00edm na budouc\u00ed v\u00fdvoj sv\u011bta, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 nebude probl\u00e9m klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny bagatelizovat. Pokud se ov\u0161em kniha dostane do ruky \u201eekologick\u00fdm optimist\u016fm\u201c nebo v u\u017e\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdznamu \u201eklimaskeptik\u016fm\u201c a nav\u00edc s vyhran\u011bn\u00fdm ekonomick\u00fdm sm\u00fd\u0161len\u00edm, pak to je ale asi dost sm\u016fla \u2013 pro ekologii a asi i pro n\u00e1s!<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rteright\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Jan Pretel, MZ 2007\/2, ro\u010dn\u00edk 60, str. 60\u201361<\/em><\/span><\/p><hr \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Autor Bj\u00f8rn Lomborg. Praha: Doko\u0159\u00e1n 2006. 587 s. ISBN 80-7363-059-1. Cena: 587 K\u010d. Kniha Skeptick\u00fd ekolog (The Skeptical Environmentalist) d\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho statistika Bj\u00f8rna Lomborga, kter\u00e1 sv\u00fdm vyd\u00e1n\u00edm vyvolala v environment\u00e1ln\u00edch kruz\u00edch [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-11017","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/11017","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11017"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/11017\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11021,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/11017\/revisions\/11021"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11017"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}