{"id":10973,"date":"2024-12-30T17:19:01","date_gmt":"2024-12-30T16:19:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/?page_id=10973"},"modified":"2024-12-30T17:20:22","modified_gmt":"2024-12-30T16:20:22","slug":"vybrane-prirodni-extremy-a-jejich-dopady-na-morave-a-ve-slezsku","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/vybrane-prirodni-extremy-a-jejich-dopady-na-morave-a-ve-slezsku\/","title":{"rendered":"Vybran\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00ed extr\u00e9my a jejich dopady na Morav\u011b a ve Slezsku"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"10973\" class=\"elementor elementor-10973\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-939591f elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"939591f\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-fb5e80d\" data-id=\"fb5e80d\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5d7a7ef elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"5d7a7ef\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.17.0 - 08-11-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p class=\"rtejustify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Autori: R. Br\u00e1zdil. K. Kirchner a kol. Brno \u2013 Praha \u2013 Ostrava: Masarykova univerzita, \u010cesk\u00fd hydrometeorologick\u00fd \u00fastav, \u00dastav geoniky AV \u010cR, v. v. i. 2007. 432 s. IBN 978-80-210-4173-8.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Dostala sa mi do ruky rozsiahlej\u0161ia a pr\u00ed\u0165a\u017elivo ilustrovan\u00e1 monografia autorov R. Br\u00e1zdlla, K. Kirchnera a kolekt\u00edvu dal\u0161\u00edch 30 autorov s\u00a0n\u00e1zvom \u201eVybran\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00ed extr\u00e9my a jejich dopady na Morav\u011b a ve Slezsku\u201c. Na 432 stran\u00e1ch m\u00f3\u017ee z\u00e1ujemca n\u00e1js\u0165 rad cenn\u00fdch inform\u00e1ci\u00ed o meteorologick\u00fdch, hydrologick\u00fdch, seizmick\u00fdch a geomorfologick\u00fdch udaIostiach, ktor\u00e9 m\u00f3\u017eu predstavova\u0165 ur\u010dit\u00e9 riziko pre \u010dlov\u011bka, pr\u00edpadne aj pre pr\u00edrodn\u00e9 prostredie. Autori sa nes\u00fastredili iba na vymenovanie a opis extr\u00e9mnych udalost\u00ed, no pok\u00fasili sa aj o hlb\u0161iu fyzik\u00e1lnu, \u0161tatistick\u00fa, geogra\u00cdick\u00fa a socio-ekonomick\u00fa anaI\u00fdzu. Uv\u00e1dzan\u00e9 udalosti s\u00fa dobre dokladovan\u00e9 p\u00f3vodn\u00fdmi zdrojmi a podroben\u00e9 s\u00fa aj kritick\u00fdm testom spol&#8217;ahlivosti, \u010do neb\u00fdva pravidlom v publik\u00e1ci\u00e1ch tak\u00e9hoto zamerania. V \u00favodn\u00fdch kapitol\u00e1ch miestami zach\u00e1dzaj\u00fa autori do \u0161t\u00fdlu element\u00e1rneho v\u00fdkladu, ktor\u00fd sa d\u00e1 n\u00e1js\u0165 v in\u00fdch publik\u00e1ci\u00e1ch a u\u010debniciach. Podstatn\u00e1 \u010das\u0165 monografie ale predstavuje p\u00f3vodn\u00fd text a origin\u00e1lne v\u00fdsledky v\u00fdskumu autorsk\u00e9ho kolekt\u00edvu. Miestami by som v texte uv\u00edtal podrobnej\u0161ie porovn\u00e1vanie prezentovan\u00fdch v\u00fdsledkov s podobn\u00fdmi podkladmi zo zahrani\u010dia.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Hne\u010f na za\u010diatku autori zd\u00f3raz\u0148uj\u00fa, \u017ee predmetn\u00e1 oblast \u010cR patr\u00ed medzi \u00fazemia \u010dasto postihovan\u00e9 r\u00f3znymi pr\u00edrodn\u00fdmi extr\u00e9mami s viacer\u00fdmi ludsk\u00fdmi obe\u0165ami a velk\u00fdmi materi\u00e1lnymi \u0161kodami. Z tak\u00e9hoto kon\u0161tatovania vych\u00e1dza aj praktick\u00e1 potleba komplexnej anal\u00fdzy v jednom rozsiahlej\u0161om diele, ktor\u00e9 doteraz ch\u00fdbalo. Rovnako ch\u00fdbalo doteraz aj spolo\u010dn\u00e9 zhodnotenie rizik z r\u00f3nych extr\u00e9mnych pr\u00edrodn\u00fdch udalost\u00ed. Je chv\u00e1lyhodn\u00e9, \u017ee t\u00e1to publik\u00e1cia vznikla aj za podpory tak\u00fdch in\u0161tit\u00faci\u00ed, ako Ministerstvo \u0161kolstva \u010cR, Akad\u00e9mia vied \u010cR, Grantov\u00e1 agent\u00fara \u010cR a \u010cHM\u00da.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Autori uv\u00e1dzaj\u00fa na 10. strane defin\u00edciu pr\u00edrodn\u00fdch javov s mo\u017en\u00fdm rizikom podla Mn\u00edchovskej zais\u0165ovne NatCatSERVICE. Zd\u00e1 sa, \u017ee je vhodn\u00e1 hlavne pre velk\u00e9 krajiny. Nakoniec sa v d&#8217;al\u0161om texte autori tejto defin\u00edcie tak striktne nedr\u017eia a za z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9 udalosti pova\u017euj\u00fa aj pr\u00edpady s men\u0161\u00edm po\u010dtom ludsk\u00fdch obet\u00ed ako 10.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V 2. kapitole sa autori na 62 stran\u00e1ch ob\u0161\u00edrne rozp\u00edsali o Morave a Sliezsku v historickom a geografickom kontexte. Element\u00e1rne v\u0161eobecn\u00e9 a geografick\u00e9 inform\u00e1cie s\u00fa doplnen\u00e9 aj cenn\u00fdmi faktarni potrebn\u00fdmi pre neskor\u0161iu anal\u00fdzu pr\u00ed\u010din, priebehu a d\u00f3sledkov pr\u00edrodn\u00fdch extr\u00e9mov. A\u017e v 3. kapitole prich\u00e1dzaj\u00fa autori s met\u00f3dami v\u00fdskumu pr\u00edrodn\u00fdch extr\u00e9mov, pri\u010dom sa na prvom mieste zaoberaj\u00fa z\u00edskavan\u00edm a prim\u00e1rnym spracovan\u00edm vstupn\u00fdch \u00fadajov. V\u0161etci, ktor\u00ed pracujeme s podobn\u00fdm typom podkladov, vieme, \u017ee kvalita vstupn\u00fdch \u00fadajov na anal\u00fdzu mimoriadnych udalost\u00ed je dos\u0165 \u010dasto sporn\u00e1 a a\u017e detailn\u00e9 \u0161tatistick\u00e9 testy umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00fa odl\u00ed\u0161enie vhodn\u00fdch a nevhodn\u00fdch podkladov. Z obdobia 1961\u20131990 mali napr\u00edklad autori k dispoz\u00edcii a\u017e 215 meteorologick\u00fdch stan\u00edc a nespresnen\u00fd po\u010det in\u00fdch \u00fadajov\u00fdch zdrojov. Zaujimav\u00fd je prehl&#8217;ad zdrojov inform\u00e1ci\u00ed a metodika posudzovania udalost\u00ed z obdobia pred za\u010diatkom systematick\u00fdch pozorovan\u00ed zo s. 82\u201386. Rovnako je pre \u010ditatela zna\u010dn\u00fdm pr\u00ednosom efektn\u00e9 prepojenie anaI\u00fdzy hydrologick\u00fdch a meteorologick\u00fdch extr\u00e9mov s extr\u00e9mami geomoffologick\u00fdrni (svahov\u00e9 zosuvy a p.). Kartografick\u00e1 vizualiz\u00e1cia prirodn\u00fdch extr\u00e9mov p\u00f3sob\u00ed moderne a je ur\u010dite pr\u00edta\u017eliv\u00e1 aj pre odborne menej zdatn\u00fdch \u010ditatelov.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Podstata \u0161tatistick\u00e9ho spracovania extr\u00e9mov je uveden\u00e1 v 4. kapitole na 170 stran\u00e1ch. Popri definovan\u00ed \u0161tatistick\u00e9ho vyhodnocovania n\u00e1vrhov\u00fdch charakterist\u00edk zriedkav\u00fdch javov je tam uveden\u00fd aj rad v\u00fdsledkov v tabel\u00e1rnej grafickej a mapovej forme. Je pochopitelh\u00e9, \u017ee viac priestoru venovali autori tak\u00fdm javom, ako s\u00fa intenz\u00edvne atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 zr\u00e1\u017eky, sucho, povodne, v\u00edchrice, torn\u00e1da a krupobitie. Z geomorfologick\u00fdch extr\u00e9mov s\u00fa to hlavne svahov\u00e9 procesy, skaln\u00e9 r\u00facania a v\u00fdsledky prirodzenej seizmicivity. Na 52 stran\u00e1ch s\u00fa v 5. kapitole uveden\u00e9 hlavn\u00e9 d\u00f3sledky pr\u00edrodn\u00fdch extr\u00e9mov v socio-ekonomickej sf\u00e9re a v pr\u00edrodnom prostred\u00ed. T\u00e1to kapitola sa do ur\u010ditej miery tematicky prel\u00edna so 4. kapitolou, miestami je aj zdanie duplicity. Je ale zrejm\u00e9, \u017ee d\u00f3sledky pr\u00edrodn\u00fdch extr\u00e9mov je potrebn\u00e9 detailnej\u0161ie identifikova\u0165 najm\u00e1 z toho d\u00f3vodu, aby sme mohli \u00faspe\u0161nej\u0161ie kvantifikova\u0165 rozsah d\u00f3sledkov zapr\u00ed\u010dinen\u00fdch priamo alebo nepriamo ludsk\u00fdmi aktivitami.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Stru\u010dn\u00e1 \u0161iesta kapitola je venovan\u00e1 problematike pr\u00edrodn\u00fdch extr\u00e9mov v kontexte glob\u00e1lnych zmien na 18 stran\u00e1ch. Autori sa opieraj\u00fa o zn\u00e1mu skuto\u010dnos\u0165, \u017ee je prellk\u00e1zateln\u00fd glob\u00e1lny rast pr\u00edrodn\u00fdch katastr\u00f3f po roku 1960, naj m\u00e1 pokial ide o zisten\u00e9 \u0161kody. Menej \u010dasto sa ale analyzuje skuto\u010dnos\u0165, \u017ee akou mierou sa na tomto raste podiela zvy\u0161uj\u00faci sa po\u010det obyvatelov a e\u0161te r\u00fdchlej\u0161\u00ed rast ceny majetku obyvatelov Zeme. Nie menejd\u00f3le\u017eit\u00fdm je aj rast\u00faci objem a r\u00fdchlos\u0165 z\u00edskan\u00fdch inform\u00e1ci\u00ed o v\u0161etk\u00fdch mo\u017en\u00fdch pr\u00edrodn\u00fdch katastr\u00f3fach na Zemi. Uv\u00e1dzan\u00fd rast ekonomick\u00fdch str\u00e1t 6,6-kr\u00e1t a str\u00e1t pois\u0165ovni 24,8-kr\u00e1t asi nereprezentuje skuto\u010dn\u00fd narast po\u010dtu a intenzity \u0161kodliv\u00fdch pr\u00edpadov pr\u00edrodn\u00fdch udalost\u00ed. Sk\u00f3r sa bude tento trend bl\u00ed\u017ei\u0165 uv\u00e1dzan\u00e9mu zv\u00fd\u0161eniu o 2,1-kr\u00e1t, ja by som pova\u017eov aI za akceptovatelh\u00e9 iba zv\u00fd\u0161enie do 50 %. Zauj\u00edmav\u00e9 je percentu\u00e1lne vyhodnotenie podielu jednotliv\u00fdch pr\u00edrodn\u00fdch extr\u00e9mov na svetov\u00fdch pr\u00edrodn\u00fdch katastr\u00f3fach v obdob\u00ed 1960\u20132005. V dhl\u0161om texte sa autori pok\u00fa\u0161aj\u00fa porovn\u00e1va\u0165 glob\u00e1lne a region\u00e1lne zmeny teploty vzduchu v obdob\u00ed 1850\u20132004 z hladiska mo\u017en\u00fdch prirodzen\u00fdch pr\u00ed\u010din. Frekven\u010dn\u00e1 anal\u00fdza potvrdila, \u017ee tu existuj\u00fa niektor\u00e9 spolo\u010dn\u00e9 pr\u00ed\u010diny. Vyhodnotenie stavu a pr\u00ed\u010din predpokladan\u00fdch nepriazniv\u00fdch zmien \u00fahrnov zr\u00e1\u017eok, vlhkosti p\u00f3dy, v\u00edchr\u00edc, krupobitia a geomorfologick\u00fdch efektov je menej zrejm\u00e9 ako v pr\u00edpade teploty vzduchu. Rovnako ani scen\u00e1re mo\u017dn\u00e9ho negat\u00edvneho v\u00fdvoja uveden\u00fdch zmien do bud\u00facnosti nie s\u00fa a\u017e tak\u00e9 jednozna\u010dn\u00e9 ako pri teplote vzduchu.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">V poslednej 4-stranovej kapitole s\u00fa uveden\u00e9 z\u00e1very, s kton\u00fdmije treba s\u00fahlasi\u0165. Socioekonomick\u00e1 sf\u00e9raje naozaj. napriek technick\u00e9mu pokroku, st\u00e1le viac zraniteln\u00e1 aj pr\u00edrodn\u00fdmi udalos\u0165ami s nezmenen\u00fdm trendom. S\u00favis\u00ed to so zlo\u017eitej\u0161ou infra\u0161trukt\u00farou, v\u00e1\u010d\u0161ou hustotou a v\u00e1\u010d\u0161\u00edm bohatstvom obyvatelov. Ja by som ale dodal e\u0161te d&#8217;al\u0161ie faktory, ktor\u00e9 bud\u00fa situ\u00e1ciu pomaly zhor\u0161ova\u0165. S rast\u00facou teplotou vzduchu bude r\u00e1s\u0165 aj mno\u017estvo vodnej pary v dolnej vrstve troposf\u00e9ry, \u010do nepochybne zv\u00e1\u010d\u0161\u00ed dynamiku v\u0161etk\u00fdch procesov, na kter\u00fdch sa akt\u00edvne podiela vodn\u00e1 para (front\u00e1lne syst\u00e9my, tropick\u00e9 cykl\u00f3ny, atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 zr\u00e1\u017eky, intenz\u00edvne lejaky, v\u00edchrice, torn\u00e1da\u2026). Na druhej strane pri predpokladanej rovnakej relat\u00edvnej vlhkosti vzduchu dos\u0165 v\u00fdznamne vzrastie s\u00fdtostn\u00fd doplnok, \u010do povedie kar\u00eddiz\u00e1cti oblast\u00ed s nedostatkom zt\u00e1\u017eok. Je ale zrejm\u00e9, \u017ee na dan\u00fa perspekt\u00edvu sa nem\u00f3\u017eeme iba rezignovane prizerat, tak ako autori zd\u00f3raz\u0148uj\u00fa, je treba zintenz\u00edvni\u0165 vedeck\u00fa aktivitu, pok\u00fasi\u0165 sa predpoveda\u0165 alebo aspo\u0148 predv\u00edda\u0165 bud\u00face nepriazniv\u00e9 udalosti a rie\u0161i\u0165 aj spolo\u010denskosoci\u00e1lnu a ekonomick\u00fa adapt\u00e1ciu. K monografii je prilo\u017een\u00fd bohat\u00fd zoznam literat\u00fary a in\u00fdch zdrojov na 30 stran\u00e1ch a roz\u0161\u00edren\u00fd anglick\u00fd s\u00fahrn na 60 stran\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Osobne som presved\u010den\u00fd, \u017ee \u010ditatelia v\u00a0\u010cR, ale aj na Slovensku, maj\u00fa k dispoz\u00edcii hodnotn\u00fa publik\u00e1ciu, ktor\u00e1 ur\u010dite n\u00e1jde uplatnenie v odbornej praxi a sn\u00e1\u010f zaujme aj vela laick\u00fdch nad\u0161encov literat\u00fary faktu.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rteright\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Milan Lapin, MZ 2008\/1, ro\u010dn\u00edk 61, str. 29\u201330<\/em><\/span><\/p><hr \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Autori: R. Br\u00e1zdil. K. Kirchner a kol. Brno \u2013 Praha \u2013 Ostrava: Masarykova univerzita, \u010cesk\u00fd hydrometeorologick\u00fd \u00fastav, \u00dastav geoniky AV \u010cR, v. v. i. 2007. 432 s. IBN 978-80-210-4173-8. Dostala [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-10973","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/10973","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10973"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/10973\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10977,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/10973\/revisions\/10977"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10973"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}