{"id":10823,"date":"2024-12-30T15:33:27","date_gmt":"2024-12-30T14:33:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/?page_id=10823"},"modified":"2024-12-30T15:38:40","modified_gmt":"2024-12-30T14:38:40","slug":"sucho-v-ceskych-zemich-minulost-soucasnost-budoucnost","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/sucho-v-ceskych-zemich-minulost-soucasnost-budoucnost\/","title":{"rendered":"Sucho v \u010cesk\u00fdch zem\u00edch: minulost, sou\u010dasnost, budoucnost"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"10823\" class=\"elementor elementor-10823\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-8ee59d1 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"8ee59d1\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-858f82a\" data-id=\"858f82a\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e6d76f1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"e6d76f1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.17.0 - 08-11-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong><em>Historie po\u010das\u00ed a podneb\u00ed v\u00a0\u010desk\u00fdch zem\u00edch XI<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Rudolf Br\u00e1zdil, Miroslav Trnka a kolektiv. Centrum v\u00fdzkumu glob\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bny Akademie v\u011bd \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky, v.v.i. Brno, 2015, 1. vyd\u00e1n\u00ed, 402 stran. ISBN 978-80-87902-11-0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-d681d9a elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"d681d9a\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-0eb0dc9\" data-id=\"0eb0dc9\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-849f6af elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"849f6af\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.17.0 - 08-11-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-image{text-align:center}.elementor-widget-image a{display:inline-block}.elementor-widget-image a img[src$=\".svg\"]{width:48px}.elementor-widget-image img{vertical-align:middle;display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/sucho_0.jpg\" data-elementor-open-lightbox=\"yes\" data-elementor-lightbox-title=\"sucho_0\" data-e-action-hash=\"#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dlightbox%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6MTA4MjYsInVybCI6Imh0dHA6XC9cL3d3dy5jbWVzLmN6XC93ZWJcL3dwLWNvbnRlbnRcL3VwbG9hZHNcLzIwMjRcLzEyXC9zdWNob18wLmpwZyJ9\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"383\" height=\"516\" src=\"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/sucho_0.jpg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-10826\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/sucho_0.jpg 383w, http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/sucho_0-223x300.jpg 223w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 383px) 100vw, 383px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-4d89840\" data-id=\"4d89840\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-99392a0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"99392a0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Pod veden\u00edm jednoho z nejzku\u0161en\u011bj\u0161\u00edch publikuj\u00edc\u00edch klimatolog\u016f, Rudolfa Br\u00e1zdila, byl v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce vyd\u00e1n dal\u0161\u00ed svazek publika\u010dn\u00ed \u0159ady \u201eHistorie po\u010das\u00ed a podneb\u00ed v \u010cesk\u00fdch zem\u00edch\u201c. Svazek XI byl vyd\u00e1n Centrem v\u00fdzkumu glob\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bny AV \u010cR, v.v.i. v Brn\u011b a je v\u011bnov\u00e1n suchu. \u0160irok\u00fd autorsk\u00fd kolektiv (celkem 45 jmenovan\u00fdch autor\u016f) reprezentuje univerzitn\u00ed pracovi\u0161t\u011b (Masarykovu, Karlovu a Mendelovu univerzitu), akademick\u00e1 pracovi\u0161t\u011b (Centrum v\u00fdzkumu glob\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bny a \u00dastav fyziky atmosf\u00e9ry) a resortn\u00ed instituce (V\u00fdzkumn\u00fd \u00fastav vodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd, \u010cesk\u00fd hydrometeorologick\u00fd \u00fastav, V\u00fdzkumn\u00fd \u00fastav meliorac\u00ed a ochrany p\u016fd a \u00dastav pro hospod\u00e1\u0159skou \u00fapravu les\u016f) spole\u010dn\u011b s Moravsk\u00fdm zemsk\u00fdm archivem a Oblastn\u00edm muzeem v Litom\u011b\u0159ic\u00edch.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Kniha na 400 stran\u00e1ch prezentuje nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdsledky klimatologick\u00e9ho a hydrologick\u00e9ho v\u00fdzkumu sucha v\u00a0\u010cesk\u00e9 republice, v\u010detn\u011b dopad\u016f v\u00a0zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed, lesnictv\u00ed a vodn\u00edm hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-0937d5b elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"0937d5b\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-7a55a31\" data-id=\"7a55a31\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-32e2490 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"32e2490\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Hned v\u00a0\u00favodu (<strong>kapitola 1<\/strong>) auto\u0159i uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed zn\u00e1mou pravdu, \u017ee neexistuje obecn\u00e1 objektivn\u00ed definice sucha, kter\u00e9 v\u0161ak b\u00fdv\u00e1 \u010dlen\u011bno na sucho meteorologick\u00e9, hydrologick\u00e9, zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 a socioekonomick\u00e9. <\/span><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Projevy sucha zaznamen\u00e1v\u00e1me zpravidla i v\u00a0b\u011b\u017en\u00e9m \u017eivot\u011b, v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u0161ak ovliv\u0148uje pr\u016fmysl, v\u00fdrobu elektrick\u00e9 energie nebo turistick\u00fd ruch. Shrnut\u00ed dosavadn\u00edch poznatk\u016f o suchu v\u00a0\u010cesk\u00fdch zem\u00edch (<strong>kapitola 2<\/strong>) za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 anal\u00fdzou star\u00fdch tisk\u016f od konce 16. stolet\u00ed, kter\u00e1 je nejen zaj\u00edmav\u00e1, ale \u010dten\u00e1\u0159 by se m\u011bl nad jednotliv\u00fdmi citacemi zamyslet. V\u011bdeck\u00e9 poznatky opro\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 od n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fdch vliv\u016f jsou analyzov\u00e1ny ji\u017e od poloviny 19. stolet\u00ed. N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed kapitola je v\u011bnov\u00e1na m\u011b\u0159en\u00fdm dat\u016fm a dokument\u00e1rn\u00edm informac\u00edm (<strong>kapitola 3<\/strong>), kter\u00e9 p\u0159i anal\u00fdze sucha nelze opomenout. Jde o z\u00e1kladn\u00ed meteorologick\u00e1 a vodom\u011brn\u00e1 data dopln\u011bn\u00e1 o v\u00fdsledky d\u00e1lkov\u00e9 detekce. U\u017e ne tak b\u011b\u017en\u00e1 b\u00fdv\u00e1 podrobn\u00e1 anal\u00fdza dendrologick\u00fdch dat, kter\u00e9 se auto\u0159i t\u00e9to publikace rovn\u011b\u017e v\u011bnuj\u00ed. Z\u00a0klimatologick\u00e9ho hlediska pova\u017euji za nejcenn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ehlednou kapitolu v\u011bnovanou variabilit\u011b v\u00fdskytu sucha u n\u00e1s (<strong>kapitola 4<\/strong>), kde \u010dten\u00e1\u0159 najde anal\u00fdzu teploty, sr\u00e1\u017eek a intensity sucha v\u00a0obdob\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstrojov\u00fdch pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed (1981-2010), dopln\u011bn\u00e9 o anal\u00fdzu p\u016fdn\u00ed vlhkosti (1961-2012) a o zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed vybran\u00fdch index\u016f sucha (1805-2012). Hydrologick\u00e9 sucho je analyzov\u00e1no v obdob\u00ed 1931-2007, v\u010detn\u011b zda\u0159il\u00e9 grafick\u00e9 prezentace sucha na 118 vodom\u011brn\u00fdch stanic\u00edch. Na z\u00e1v\u011br t\u00e9to nejrozs\u00e1hlej\u0161\u00ed kapitoly je uveden podrobn\u00fd strukturovan\u00fd popis 19 extr\u00e9mn\u00edch such\u00fdch epizod od roku 1808 do roku 2007, dopln\u011bn\u00fd p\u0159ehledem p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f z\u00a0dokument\u00e1rn\u00edch \u00fadaj\u016f v obdob\u00ed 1534-1790. Zaj\u00edmavou \u010d\u00e1st tvo\u0159\u00ed p\u0159ehled sucha p\u0159ipraven\u00fd podle tzv. negativn\u00edch let zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch anal\u00fdzou letokruh\u016f dubu v obdob\u00ed p\u0159ed rokem 1500. V\u00a0\u010d\u00e1sti v\u011bnovan\u00e9 p\u0159\u00ed\u010din\u00e1m sucha (<strong>kapitola 5<\/strong>) je prezentov\u00e1na b\u011b\u017en\u00e1 a \u010dasto pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1na anal\u00fdza p\u0159\u00edzemn\u00edho tlakov\u00e9ho pole v\u00a0evropsko-atlantsk\u00e9 oblasti a anal\u00fdza synoptick\u00fdch typ\u016f podle Br\u00e1dkovy klasifikace prodlou\u017een\u00e9 do roku 1946. Vybran\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed klimatotvorn\u00e9 a cirkula\u010dn\u00ed faktory auto\u0159i podrobili kritick\u00e9 atribu\u010dn\u00ed anal\u00fdze, kter\u00e1 tak na jednom m\u00edst\u011b uv\u00e1d\u00ed na pravou m\u00edru n\u011bkter\u00e9 \u010dasto publikovan\u00e9 p\u0159edpoklady o jejich vlivu na region\u00e1ln\u00ed klima ve st\u0159edn\u00ed Evrop\u011b. Mezi analyzovan\u00e9 p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny samoz\u0159ejm\u011b pat\u0159\u00ed i zm\u011bny v\u00a0u\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed krajiny, vhodn\u011b dopln\u011bn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edklady z\u00a0ji\u017en\u00ed Moravy, Kru\u0161n\u00fdch hor a Polab\u00ed. Mo\u017en\u00e9 dopady (<strong>kapitola 6<\/strong>) v\u00a0zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed, lesnictv\u00ed a vodn\u00edm hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed popisuj\u00ed vliv na rostliny, v\u00fdnosy i p\u016fdu, jsou prezentov\u00e1ny metody anal\u00fdzy rizik (nap\u0159. vodn\u00ed stres nebo lesn\u00ed po\u017e\u00e1ry) a samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nelze opomenout ani dopady na n\u00e1dr\u017ee a podzemn\u00ed vody. Cel\u00e1 publikace logicky vrchol\u00ed popisem nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f budouc\u00edho sucha (<strong>kapitola 7<\/strong>), kde jsou pops\u00e1ny oba dnes pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 zdroje emisn\u00edch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f (SRES a RCP) a p\u0159edlo\u017eeny v\u00fdsledky model\u016f CMIP pro Evropu a t\u0159\u00ed model\u016f pro \u010cesko (ALADIN-Climate\/CZ 10, 25 a RegCM 10). Ve v\u00fdhledu do konce stolet\u00ed nechyb\u00ed ani odhad dopad\u016f v\u00a0zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed, lesnictv\u00ed a vodn\u00edm hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed. Z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e9 shrnut\u00ed (<strong>kapitola 8<\/strong>) je strukturov\u00e1no do \u201edesatera\u201c, kter\u00e9 by si m\u011bli p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst v\u0161ichni, koho problematika sucha zaj\u00edm\u00e1. Multikriteri\u00e1ln\u00ed anal\u00fdza jednotliv\u00fdch katastr\u016f by si zaslou\u017eila samostatnou kapitolu, ale i tak vhodn\u011b dopl\u0148uje p\u0159edlo\u017een\u00e9 desatero.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rtejustify\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\">Hodnotu publikace zvy\u0161uje rozs\u00e1hl\u00fd p\u0159ehled zdroj\u016f rozd\u011blen\u00fd na t\u0159i \u010d\u00e1sti \u2013 literatura, arch\u00edvn\u00ed prameny a internetov\u00e9 zdroje. Pokud bych m\u011bl vybrat z\u00a0t\u00e9to obs\u00e1hl\u00e9 publikace n\u011bkolik nejzaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00edch \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed, pak to, zcela subjektivn\u011b, bude p\u0159ehled index\u016f pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch p\u0159i anal\u00fdz\u00e1ch sucha (tab. 1 a kap. 3.2.1), zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 v\u00edcen\u00e1sobn\u00e9 pou\u017eit\u00ed \u0161k\u00e1ly na obr. 57 a 59 a podrobn\u00e1 atribu\u010dn\u00ed anal\u00fdza vlivu klimatotvorn\u00fdch a cirkula\u010dn\u00edch vliv\u016f. Recenze by nebyla \u00fapln\u00e1 kdyby neupozornila na nedostatky a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 chyby. Obsahov\u011b v\u0161ak nelze publikaci vytknout nic z\u00e1sadn\u00edho. Je pochopiteln\u00e9, \u017ee v takto rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 publikaci je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 udr\u017eet jednotnou slohovou i grafickou linii. Bohu\u017eel se to v\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1stech autor\u016fm nepoda\u0159ilo. Nap\u0159\u00edklad nep\u0159evzat\u00e9 mapov\u00e9 v\u00fdstupy stejn\u00fdch m\u011b\u0159\u00edtek (obr. 39 a 49 nebo obr. 42 a 47) nemaj\u00ed jednotn\u00fd kartografick\u00fd styl a n\u00e1pl\u0148. Grafick\u00e1 prezentace dek\u00e1dn\u00edch pr\u016fm\u011br\u016f a sr\u00e1\u017eek na obr. 40 je nep\u0159ehledn\u00e1 a jednotliv\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed se mezi sebou \u0161patn\u011b porovn\u00e1vaj\u00ed. P\u0159\u00edklady hydrologick\u00e9ho sucha na horn\u00ed Otav\u011b a horn\u00ed Lu\u017enici p\u016fsob\u00ed nekonsistentn\u011b a v\u00a0\u010d\u00e1sti v\u011bnovan\u00e9 \u010dasoprostorov\u00e9 anal\u00fdze hydrologick\u00e9ho sucha pon\u011bkud cize. Z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e9 anglick\u00e9 shrnut\u00ed by mohlo b\u00fdt obs\u00e1hlej\u0161\u00ed. T\u011bchto n\u011bkolik drobn\u00fdch upozorn\u011bn\u00ed v\u0161ak nijak nesni\u017euje v\u00fdznam a kvalitu cel\u00e9 publikace, kter\u00e1 bude jist\u011b pat\u0159it k\u00a0z\u00e1kladn\u00edm informa\u010dn\u00edm zdroj\u016fm v oboru.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"rteright\"><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><em>Radim Tolasz, MZ 2015\/6, ro\u010dn\u00edk 68<\/em><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Historie po\u010das\u00ed a podneb\u00ed v\u00a0\u010desk\u00fdch zem\u00edch XI Rudolf Br\u00e1zdil, Miroslav Trnka a kolektiv. Centrum v\u00fdzkumu glob\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bny Akademie v\u011bd \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky, v.v.i. Brno, 2015, 1. vyd\u00e1n\u00ed, 402 stran. ISBN 978-80-87902-11-0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-10823","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/10823","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10823"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/10823\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10829,"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/10823\/revisions\/10829"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cmes.cz\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10823"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}